Spring training, that glorious time of the year when all baseball fans are summoned from their proverbial winter hibernation. The spring represents the first significant opportunity to evaluate players to target for your fantasy team. Who will make the 25 man roster? Who will be called up from the minors to win a starting job? And, who is getting more or less playing time this year? All important questions that, if answered correctly, could help you take your league by storm. In this edition of Minor-ity Report we focus on minor leaguers who may have a shot at winning a starting position in the majors this season.
1. Cincinnati Reds, 1B - Joey Votto v. Scott Hatteberg
Cincinnati Reds new manager Dusty Baker is notorious for handing veterans starting jobs while passing on rookies. With the Reds having picked up Hatteberg’s option for 2008, one might expect him to have the upper hand for the Reds’ first base job. Indeed, we feel that opening the ’08 season and barring a big spring from Votto, Hatteberg may be the safe bet. The last few years he has performed his best rendition of Mark Grace with a solid batting average, modest power, and a supernatural ability to draw bases-on-balls. Last season Hatteberg hit .310 with 10 homers, 47 rbi and posted a .394 OBP. The year before, he had a .289 average with 13 homers, 51 rbi and a .389 OBP. A prototypical moneyballer, Scott Hatteberg provides Baker with peace of mind and a difficult out in the corner infield.
The argument for Joey Votto is a strong one, though. In the long term, of course, it will be Votto’s job to lose. More likely than not, the Reds will not be competing for the divisional title in 2008 and recently repeatedly appear to be on the cusp of rebuilding. Votto’s performance in the minors has been intriguing and will make it hard for Baker to play favorites with the veteran first baseman. A second round pick in the 2002 draft, Joey Votto has appeared on all of the experts’ radar this year as a top prospect entering the 2008 season. The hype began in 2006 when Votto was in double A, Chattanooga. There he hit .319 with a .408 OBP, 22 homers, 77 rbi, and a surprising 24 steals. In 2007, in triple A Louisville, Votto hit .294 with a .384 OBP% and smacked another 22 homers, drove in 92 runs, and stole 17 bases. This led to Votto’s call up to the majors at the end of ’07, and he didn’t miss a beat. In only 84 big league at bats, Votto hit .321 with 4 homers and 17 rbi.
Despite Baker’s proclivity toward veterans, we think Votto can earn the starting nod with a strong spring and a stronger start when the season kicks off. Pay close attention to this competition though. No matter which player gets the nod as starter to begin the season, consistency at the plate and in the field will determine who Cincinatti’s first baseman will be to culminate the season.
2. Padres, 2B – Matt Antonelli v. Tadahito Iguchi
This battle should be one of the more interesting ones as the season progresses. Antonelli is a top prospect for the Padres (we encourage readers to peruse our coverage of him on previous editions of The Report) and figures to give Iguchi some competition for the starting second base job. Although there was some talk of shifting Antonelli to third base or outfield, but the Padres recently decided to keep him in the middle of the diamond.
As a veteran signed to a one year contract, the 33-year old Iguchi provides a safer bet for a Padres team looking to immediately compete for a division title. Last season Iguchi hit .267 with 9 homers, 43 rbi, and 14 stolen bases. An off year for Iguchi, his potential is better illustrated by his 2006 season. Playing for the Chicago White Sox, Iguchi hit .281 with 18 homers, 67 rbi and 11 stolen bases. But, Tad Iguchi looks like he took a major step backwards last season, and age is not on his side. Management also doesn’t like his strikeout totals which regularly exceed 100.
Antonelli has been a hitting machine in the minors since being tapped in the first round of the 2006 draft. After an impressive, but short-lived stint in low single A (60 games between two levels), Antonelli was promoted to high A Lake Elsinore in 2007. There, he hit .314 with a .409 OBP, 14 homers 54 rbi, and 18 steals in only 347 at-bats. San Diego quickly advanced him to double A San Antonio where he continued hitting the cover off the ball. In 187 double A at-bats, Antonelli hit .294 with a .394 OBP, 7 homers, 24 rbi, and 10 steals. With a terrific walk-to-strikeout ratio, burgeoning power, and a set of wheels, Antonelli is clearly on the fast track to the majors. But will he earn a starting job in ’08?
We think that barring a surreal performance by Antonelli during the spring, Iguchi is the favorite to be the Padres opening day second basemen. The Padres believe they can compete for the NL West pennant and will almost certainly want the more veteran Iguchi to handle second base. As we mentioned earlier, there have been real concerns about Antonelli’s defense at second, which may further delay his call to the Bigs. Additionally, Matt Antonelli only totaled 187 at-bats above single A, and none in triple A. Therefore, we expect him to start the season in triple A for additional seasoning. As always, pay attention to spring training performances as this analysis may change if Iguchi does poorly or goes down with an injury and/or Antonelli excels. Even without a starting role to open the season, we expect Matt Antonelli to crack the Bigs at some point in ’08.
3. Cincinnati Reds, CF – Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper v. Jay Bruce
Jay Bruce is the Reds’ center fielder of the future. There is little doubt that having traded Josh Hamilton, and perennially engaged in trade talks regarding Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr., that Bruce will have a job in Cincinnati sooner rather than later. Cinci’s current outfield projects to be Griffey, Dunn, and Hopper or Freel. If Ryan Freel is unhealthy to begin the season or performs awfully in the spring (or Norris Hopper proves unworthy of a starting job during the spring) and Jay Bruce continues to drop jaws with his bat-work, Bruce could be a starter before long.
As a team, the Reds have done little to improve their standing in the NL Central entering 2008 unless you factor the acquisitions of Edison Volquez and Francisco Cordero as two difference-making moves. Meanwhile, Chicago and Milwaukee all promise to improve entering 2008. We predict that Cincinnati’s stock will drop and they will do their best to clear a path for Jay Bruce. In this matchup, we must give the edge to Jay Bruce based on edge, past performance, and defined future role.
These positional battles are just the beginning of our pre-season 2008 spring analysis. We encourage readers and fantasy GM’s to follow such competitions during the spring and pursue players accordingly during your draft or auction.