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Baseball Hotpage > Top 10 Prospects for 2008

Greetings for this column which is usually among the most anticipated I do every season, and that is the columns that announces our Top 10 prospects for 2008 (note you can indeed purchase our entire Top 250 in a sortable spreadsheet for merely $5.99, and sorry for indulging in this shameless shilling).

And, our Top 250 is, if I say so myself, a must if you are in any kind of ultra or keeper league that allows you to mine for prospest, because, well, to paraphrase both Jason Grey and Trace Wood, my list has the usual suspects, but, it also always shines on a handfull of players no one else spotted just yet.

For example, last year Kansas City's Billy Butler ranked #8, and the Brewers Yovani Gallardo placed #27, and going into 2007 that was far greater recognition than any other sports analysis site had granted either.

In the past, we have also noted the likes of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, Daric Barton, and Albert Pujols enough ahead of the curve that if you did purchase the Top 250 over the years, and took a shot at some of the under the radar names thrown out, you would have a cluster of very good young players at your disposal.

My formula basically looks at a combination of skill--pitching or hitting for power relative to whether you are a pitcher or a batter, and control if you are a pitcher and strike zone judgement if you are a batter--age, and level of play, and balances those factors against one another.

To qualify, a player must have at least played at High A for either 200 at-bats, or 70 innings, and their rank on the list is predicated upon the highest level of play under which those margins were met.

So, with that in mind, here are the Top 10 CREATiVESPORTS prospects for 2008.

Deolis Guerra (P, 18, Mets): True his career mark over 178 innings and 39 starts is just 2-6, but this kid also has an ERA of 3.27, ratio of 1.21, and has earned 135 whiffs while allowing just 148 hits. Geurra's walks are a little high at 66 but this kid is just 18 and performing at High A. Just a matter of time.

Colby Rasmus (OF, 21, Cards): Hit .275-29-72 at Springfield last year at age 20, and the path is cleared for Rasmus to be the everyday center fielder at new Busch this year. He will struggle at times, but as he ages, less often than not.

Chris Tillman (P, 19, Mariners): Guys like Tillman do indeed represent the gambe factor, and well, when you review his primary totals--7-11, 4.91--and even look at his hits to innings (172 over 166.2) and then walks and ratio of 81 and 1.52, and there is no way you would touch him. But, at just 19 he has whiffed 184 batters and that means if he can simply learn and harness some control, no one will be able to hit him at all. In most leagues you should be able to grab Tillman as a throwaway last pick, and that should be well worth the investment.

Michael Bowden (P, 21, Red Sox): Moved up to AA Bowie last year and went 8-6, 4.28. But, again, he was just 20, and if you look at his minor league totals of 11-6, 3.23, 1.23, and then his totals innings (261.2), hits allowed (244) and total strikeouts (259) you simply have to see the potential.

Daric Barton (1B, 22, Athletics): Been in the Top 10 the last four years, and finally getting a chance to shine as the everyday first sacker in Oakland. Not a lot of power, but a lot of hits and runs generated, and his on-base totals are off the chart (.412 as a minor leaguer). Think Keith Hernandez totals at the dish: on the field, however, you are on your own.

Carlos Triunfel ( SS, 17, Mariners): .296-0-39 totals over 396 at-bats at three levels in 2007, but, he did all that at age 17. This kid is raw, as witnessed by the 12 CS to 7 successful swipes, but, the idea is to draft these guys before anyone notices them, correct?

William Inman (P, 20, Brewers): As noted, showing power and control at an early age is the key. Inman made his mark at AA last year, and his aggregate stats show 317.1 minor league innings, with just 231 hits allowed while earning 373 strikeouts. Those are just wicked numbers.

Homer Bailey (P, 21, Reds): Probably gone in your leagues, and clearly one of the best NL prospects. Bailey is penciled in as a member of the Reds starting five. His minor league totals of innings (330), hits allowed (266), and whiffs (356) pretty much make the case for all the pitchers on this list so far.

Joba Chamberlain (P, 22, Yankees): Best name in the majors? Well, answer yes, or answer no, but, Chamberlain has hurled 88.1 minor league innings, allowing 62 hits, while striking out 135. 135? scary. And, he is probably gone in your league. But, if not....

Fernando Martinez ( 18, Mets): At age 18, over 236 at-bats at AA Binghamton last year, Martinez hit .271-4-21, earning an OBP of .336. At 18, most kids are just finishing high school, and if they are drafted out of high school, maybe they are getting their feet wet in the rookie leagues. Martinez is already three levels above his contemporaries.

So, there you have them, in order even. And, yes, there are some familiar names, but a couple of surprises as well.

I will be back the first Monday in March, kicking off the weekly schedule for the Hotpage and CREATiVESPORTS.

posted @ Saturday, February 16, 2008 9:48 PM by Lawr Michaels

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