This week we focus on the top major league ready pitching prospects in the minor leagues.  Each of the pitchers we have chosen to profile, project as key contributors to their respective major league clubs as early as 2008.  With young, power arms, Homer Bailey, Clay Buccholz, and Joba Chamberlain will be relied upon to blow opposing batters away and rack up their fair share of K’s and W’s. 

1. Homer Bailey

This 21-year old flame-throwing right-hander got shelled to the tune of a 5.75 ERA in his 2007 major league debut season with Cinci.  Nonetheless, great things are expected from Bailey. The Cincinnati Reds selected Homer in the first round of the 2004 draft.  An imposing figure at 6’4, Bailey has all the tools to succeed as a top flight starter at the major league level.  With a filthy moving fastball in the low 90’s, and an outstanding curveball, Bailey projects as a front of the rotation starter. 

Bailey’s first complete minor league season was 2005 with Single A, Dayton.  There, Bailey showed outstanding “stuff” as he let up few hits and struck out legions of opposing batters.   Like many young pitchers, however, Bailey had trouble keeping his pitches in the zone.  In 103 innings pitched, Bailey surrendered a mere 89 hits yet struck out an impressive 125 batters.  He ended the year with a mediocre 4.43 ERA, in part because he got himself into a number of jams by walking 62 batters.

In 2006 Bailey’s control greatly improved and he exhibited the talent that has scouts comparing him to elite pitchers of the game.  Starting in high A ball in Sarasota, Bailey pitched 70 innings and let up a miniscule 49 hits, while striking out 79, walking 22, and posting a 3.31 ERA.  Halfway through the season he was promoted to double A.  Bailey thrived despite the increased level of competition.  He tossed 68 hits, letting up only 50 hits, while striking out 77 batters, walking 28.  Moreover, Bailey finished with an outstanding 1.59 ERA. 

After letting up far fewer than a hit per inning and striking out well beyond one batter per inning at all levels of the minors, the Reds realized they had a special pitcher in their farm system.  Thus, Bailey was promoted to triple A in 2007 and fast-tracked for the majors.  In 67 triple A innings, Bailey let up only 49 hits, struck out 59, but walked 32, all on his way to a 3.07 ERA. 

Handicapped by an injury-prone and abysmal pitching staff, in June 2007 the Reds decided to give Bailey a chance to prove his worth in the majors.  Whether it was nervous jitters, a lack of concentration, a groin injury that affected his mechanics, or just better competition, the one thing that is clear is that Bailey did not do well in his inaugural major league season.  As with his 2005 season, the stats tell us that Bailey was not overmatched.  Rather, he defeated himself. In 45 innings with the Reds Bailey showed he has the stuff to make it in the Bigs, letting up only 43 hits and striking out 28 hitters.  Although letting up relatively few hits, Bailey let up a whopping 28 walks. 

We expect that Baileys control to improve as he adjusts to the Bigs and works on his focus and poise when toeing the rubber.  In 2009 we believe he will start off slow, but end up with a solid year.  By 2010 he should be ready for major league stardom. 

2. Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz was chosen in the supplemental first round by Boston in the 2005 amateur draft with the 42nd overall pick. After being drafted, Buchholz enjoyed a brief audition through the New York Penn League before splitting 2006 between Single and Double-A. During 2006, Buchholz averaged 1.18 K/IP in 119 frames, posting a 1.13 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in A ball, and a 2.62 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in Double-A Greenville. In a 2007 season spent climbing from Portland of the Eastern League (AA) to Boston and the Bigs, Clay Buchholz notched a 1.77 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 86.2 frames and a 3.96 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 38.2 innings pitched. He improved upon a dominant 2006 by averaging 1.37 K/IP in Double and Triple-A in 2007, while allowing fewer long-balls in more innings than any prior professional season.

Buchholz, like Bailey and Joba Chamberlain, comprise the freshman class of future aces that are set to toss their first complete season in the Bigs in 2008. With the injury of Curt Schilling and health history of knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield, we expect Buchholz to enter 2008 as the 5th starter in Boston’s rotation but end the season at no lower than 4th. With an inning limit preemptively imposed by Sox brass, we may see Buchholz moved to the pen sporadically throughout the season for the sole purpose of preserving his arm for an anticipated pennant race. Though a rookie and relative newcomer on the scene, Buchholz will fetch top dollar at auction and could well be a high draft pick. With the support of the Sox offense and the comfort of knowing that Okajima, Timlin, and Papelbon are behind him, Buchholz should see many opportunities for decisions and victories.

3. Joba Chamberlain

Drafted as the 41st overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft by the New York Yankees, this 20 year-old launched like a cannon through Single, Double and Triple A all the way to the majors in 2007, his first professional season.

Displaying stunning success in the majors, many Yankees fans consider Joba their savior who helped turn the Yankees’ season around.  Projected as a starter in the minors, Joba was primarily used in the bullpen in his first games in the pros.  When more established pitchers, such as Kyle Farnsworth and Luis Viscaino faltered, manager Joe Torre was able to rely on Joba to come out of the pen and shut down opposing starters.  In fact, Chamberlain was the go-to guy in tight jams and the key link from the starting staff to future hall-of-famer Mariano Rivera. 

Lets take a closer look at Chamberlain’s incredible 2007 season.  He began the year like many other draft picks, in high A ball.  There, he tossed 40 innings as a starter, letting up only 25 hits, walking 11, and striking out an impressive 51 batters.  Along with his core statistics, Chamberlain had a sparkling 2.03 ERA.

After showing a penchant for success in Single A, Chamberlain was promoted to Trenton, New York’s double A affiliate.  Continuing his dominant ways, Chamberlain pitched another 40 innings, letting up 32 hits, walking 15, and striking out a whopping 66 batters, on his way to a 3.35 ERA. 

Continuing his climb up the ladder, Chamberlain made a brief 8-inning stop in triple A Columbus, before making it to the Yanks.  Although his stint in triple A was short, his performance was certainly memorable.  In those 8 innings he struck out an eye-popping 18 batters and did not let up a single run. 

In the majors, Chamberlain was nothing short of dominant.  In 19 games and 24 innings, he yielded only one run, ending with a 0.38 ERA.  Major league hitters could not buy a hit off him.  Indeed Chamberlain only gave up 2 hits, while whiffing 34.  Nor did Chamberlain give up many free passes, issuing only 6 walks. 

With a fastball that he can dial up to 98 mph, a great slider and an improving changeup, Chamberlain should be successful for many years to come.  Although the Yankees have indicated they may start Chamberlain in the bullpen in 2008, we expect him to quickly earn a spot in the rotation, especially if some of their old pitchers go down with injuries or the young ones falter.  

This new class of ace starting pitchers may be impact players in their rookie season. Bailey, Buchholz, and Chamberlain are all outstanding power pitchers with an opportunity to contribute in 2008 and should be followed closely this season and beyond.