“With the first pick in this year’s draft…” is usually a nice thing to hear for your team. It’s a day your team might strike gold and land the next stud. Seattle snatched up Ken Griffey, Jr. in ’87 and Alex Rodriguez in ’93. The Mets nabbed Darryl Strawberry and the Braves picked up Chipper Jones. It’s a time when you can easily land the next great in the game…but there is always risk. There is no such thing in this world as a sure bet.

Sometimes, teams get burned – like the Yankees with Brien Taylor in 1991 or the Tigers with Matt Anderson in 1997. In 1999, the D-Rays took Josh Hamilton with the top pick – but thanks to injuries and off-field problems, he hasn't played a game that counts for three years. Character, injuries, depth charts, management or any vast array of things can keep a player from reaching the major leagues. The past two years the number one selections have started out in extremely different directions.

The Padres drafted Matt Bush with the first overall pick in 2005. Since then, he’s hitting .216 with two HR in 549 at-bats. Ouch. The Devil Rays, on the other hand, love the gem they got in ’04. Delmon Young was picked before everybody else in ’03. He’s been an absolute monster in the minors so far. The kid can throw the ball 95 mph, hit the ball 500 feet and has the ability to steal 40 bases.

Minor League Spotlight calls Young the number one minor league fantasy keeper prospect for next season, and doesn’t expect you to ever remember the name Matt Bush. We’ll run it down now.

Matt Bush, Fort Wayne Wizards (Class-A, San Diego Padres)

Height, weight: 5’11”, 170 lbs.

Born: Feb. 8, 1986 in San Diego, California

Bats: Right, Throws: Right

Position: Shortstop

How acquired?: Bush was selected by the San Diego Padres in the first round (first overall) of 2004 amateur entry draft.

Interesting fact: Bush was recommended by Padres scout Tim McWilliam and became the first high school shortstop taken with the top pick since ARod (Seattle) in 1993. Two weeks after the Padres selected Bush as the number one overall selection, the hometown kid was arrested. The club promptly slapped him with a one month suspension and reworked his contract involving behavior clauses. He’s been able to avoid having his mug shot in the newspaper for the wrong reasons since.

High school track record: Bush batted .450 (55-for-123) with 11 doubles, 11 home runs, 35 RBI and 12 stolen bases in his senior season at Mission Bay HS, racking up two San Diego Section Division III championships in three years. He went 9-1 with a 0.42 ERA (five ER in 66 IP) and 91 strikeouts on the mound, and set state records during his prep career in hits (211) and runs scored (196). He batted .458 (54-for-118) with eight home runs, 34 RBI and 21 stolen bases his Junior year.

This season: .221 (100-for-453), two HR, eight SB, 32 RBI, 76 K, 33 BB, 38 errors.

Prognosis: Bush has already been called a bust by some. When he was selected, scouts were raving that he was “major league ready” from a defensive standpoint. This year, he committed 38 errors in Class A ball. That is a deceiving number because the kid is outstanding at times. Defensively, he’ll improve over the next few years, but his major question marks lie in the batter’s box. He’s by no means a five-tool talent. He possesses virtually no power and hasn’t exactly been a speed demon on the base paths either. Fantasy-wise, don’t expect to hear his name announced over a major league PA system until 2010, if ever.

 

Delmon Young, Durham (Triple-A, Tampa Bay Devil Rays)

Height, weight: 6’2”, 200 lbs.

Born: September 14, 1985 in Camarillo, California

Bats: Right, Throws: Right

Position: Outfield

How acquired?: Young was selected by the Devil Rays in the first round (first overall) of the 2003 amateur entry draft.

Interesting fact: The 20-year-old brother of Detroit's Dmitri Young was selected Baseball America's minor-league player of the year this season. He is the youngest player to get the award since Andruw Jones did it as an 18-year-old in 1995 and again in 1996, when he was 19.

Previous seasons: In 2004 for Class A Charleston, he batted .320 (164-for-513), 25 HR, 21 SB, 115 RBI, 95 R, 26 doubles in 131 games

High school track record: After missing the beginning of his senior year because of an injury, Young batted .523 (34-for-65) with seven HR, 28 RBI and 40 runs. Teams were so intimidated by him, he got 26 intentional walks. Basically, he was Barry Bonds at the high school level.

This season: In 84 games for Double-A Montgomery, he batted .336 (111-for-330), 20 HR, 71 RBI, 59 R, 25 SB.

In 50 games with Triple-A Durham, he batted .275 (60-for-218), six HR, 25 RBI, 29 R, 10 doubles.

Prognosis: Delmon Young was very unhappy about not being called up this September and said the Devil Rays were apprehensive to promote him because the organization is cheap. Bottom line: he’s right. He’s already one of the most complete players at the minor league level. Scouts are raving that he has 40/40 talent with the ability to drive in 100-plus runs every year. Expect him to arrive in the bigs by the All-Star game in 2006. If you have minor league roster spots in your Fantasy league, target him in the later rounds of your draft. What is Tampa Bay playing for? In a division with Boston and New York’s deep pockets, they have basically no chance to compete. Why not play the future now?