This week’s edition of Minor-ity Report will continue our analysis of how batters who are modern day offensive superstars did in low A ball. Last time we featured stars such as Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, etc.. This column will feature Matt Holliday, David Wright, and Chase Utley.
1. Matt Holliday (OF, Rockies)
• 16 homers, 28 doubles 64 RBI, and 10 SB with an average of .264/.350/.435/.785 in 444 at bats in low A ball
• Matt Holliday’s rise to stardom began humbly enough with the Arizona Rockies of the Rookie League in 1998 at the tender age of 18. Then a third baseman, Holliday was a 7th round draft pick that year, and managed 5 homers in his first 117 professional at bats. His BB:K ratio was just short of 1:1 and he was already a physical presence at the plate at 6’4, 230 lbs. Despite his build, Holliday established himself early on as a danger on the basepaths and proved that power was not his only weapon. With regard to power, Holliday’s home run totals in A ball did not point to a future Major League MVP candidate. But, it is wise to regard steep totals of two-baggers as indicators of increasing power. Holliday blasted 28 doubles in those same 444 at bats, and although his raw power totals would show decline in the season to follow 1999’s effort, his doubles totals always pointed to burgeoning power. Eventually Holliday would capitalize on promotions and his growing strength and turn doubles into homers.
2. David Wright (3B, Mets)
• 11 homers, 30 doubles, 93 RBI, 21 SB and a .266/.367/.401/.768 average in 496 at bats
• Wright was drafted in the 1st round of the 2001 draft by the New York Mets at age 18. The next year at 19, David Wright played his first full season in low A ball for Columbia of the South Atlantic League. Even though Wright was not the .300 hitter he is known as today, David showed a nice balance of power, speed, and maturity at the plate. As was the case with most of the other superstars covered in our analyses, Wright’s home run totals did not tell the full story. At first glance, 11 dingers are not attention grabbing. However, thirty doubles contributed to an overall .401 SLG, the worst of Wright’s professional career, but a nonetheless outstanding figure for most batters. Unsurprisingly, Wright’s homers, doubles, slugging percentage, and batting average continued to rise with each promotion until he logged a partial season in his rookie year during 2004.
3. Chase Utley (2B, Phillies)
• 16 homers, 25 doubles, 59 RBI, 19 SB, and .257/.324/.422/.746 averages in A+ ball
• Arguably the most offensively gifted second baseman in baseball, Chase Utley began his professional career later than most prospects, at age 21. At age 22, Utley’s first full season in A ball was for Clearwater of the Florida State League. By looking at his numbers there, it is clear Utley was a standout. But how did 16 homers become 30, and this older prospect become the best second baseman in baseball? At 6’1, 185 lbs, Utley did little in the way of filling out since his first year as a professional. So we cannot attribute a rise in power to physical maturation. The answer in Utley’s case lies in his ability to make adjustments throughout his career. Utley has always been a tenacious worker, and has never settled comfortably into being passable either at the plate or with the glove. Once the Phillies handed him a starting job and ended the positional shifting that had Utley flip-flopping between the infield corners, Chase rewarded them by becoming the best 2B in baseball.
Part I of Before They Were Stars: Batters Edition featured players with greater-than .500 slugging and .800 OPS. In no way inferior, this group had greater than .400/.700 SLG/OPS. So, is there a threshold for these statistical measures to separate the “never-will-be” from the future superstar? How can we distinguish the next Lance Berkman from Lance Burkhart? We will begin answering this question by discussing the top sluggers in single A in 2001.
Top sluggers in single A in 2001 included Phil Hiatt, Adam Dunn, Brandon Berger, Guye Senjem, and Ramon Castro. How many of these players stuck with a major league team for any length of time, much less reproduced any of their minor league success in the Bigs? The answer – one. Most became career minor leaguers or worse – left baseball altogether. So what made Dunn special and what would distinguish any of the featured stars above from their statistically similar colleagues during their tenure in single A? In a word, age. Players that statistically stand out, yet are generally young for their playing class, tend to go further. Excessive prejudice for youth, though, might have sent prospective fantasy general managers running away from talents such as Utley. However, and this is of course not true for all players, offensive precociousness is a great indicator for future success. In summary, it is the combination of stellar SLG and OPS in early offensive development that bodes well for future success at the big league level.