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Minor-ity Report> Fantasy Fall From Grace

This edition of Minor-ity Report will discuss former blue chip prospects who failed to meet expectations on the Major League level. The list of highly touted prospects expected to make a splash in the Bigs is lengthy. What clues can we look to that distinguish prospects destined for greatness and cautionary tales such as Hensley Meulens and Luis Medina? Our in-depth examination to follow will explore that very subject.

1. Hensley Meulens

Now a hitting coach for the Indianapolis Indians, this former Yankee farmhand carried the title of “next great third baseman” since exploding on the scene in 1987 for the Prince William team of the Carolina League. Signed as an undrafted free-agent in 1985 at the age of 18 and beginning his professional career at just 19 years of age, Meulens carried great expectations. In 430 at bats in A ball in 1987, Meulens blasted 28 homers, 103 RBI, stole 14 bases, and hit .300 – all while manning a premium position for New York’s minor league affiliate. After 1987, Hensley was given the nickname “Bam Bam,” a moniker that would follow him throughout his career, all the way to baseball cards he would appear on, in lieu of his given name.

In the year to follow Hensley Meulens’ breakthrough campaign in 1987, he would go on to divide his time between double and triple A in 1988, hitting a combined 14 long-balls in 487 at-bats. 1989 saw Bam Bam demoted to double A, where he worked his way back to triple A Columbus after a shaky performance that left scouts wondering where his prodigious power had gone.

Meulens was given an audition with the parent club in 1989 after inarguably taking a statistical step backward in repeat performances in both double and triple A. Unimpressive in his limited stint that season, Bam Bam began and continued on to play the majority of the 1990 season in triple A Columbus, hitting 26 homers and 20 doubles in 480 at bats while posting a .285 average. His effort in 1990 again earned Hensley a shot with the Yankees when rosters expanded. Improving upon his previous cup ‘o coffee in ‘89, Meulens hit .241 with 3 homers and 10 RBI in 83 at bats.

By 1991, Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens was a full-time member of the Yankees. Although only mustering a partial season, Bam Bam batted an anemic .222 with 6 homers and 29 RBI in 288 at bats. Having disappointed Yankees brass and again fallen short of expectations, Meulens was demoted in 1992 and played yet another season for Columbus. Having proven himself on the minor league level and now out of options, Meulens would try his hand at Japanese baseball between 1993-1996. There, Bam Bam performed much as he had for Columbus, averaging 26 homers to go with an unimpressive .245 average. Now 30 years of age and having dominated the Japanese league, Meulens returned to Major League baseball with a desire to prove himself and silence throngs of detractors. Long gone were his days manning the hot corner. Bam Bam began anew as a multipositional utility player and spent the 1997 season speedily rising through the Montreal Expo farm system. Ending with 24 at bats in the Bigs for Montreal, Meulens hit 2 homers and drove in 6 while batting .292. In spite of his modest showing as an Expo, the team severed ties with Meulens by season’s end and in 1998, Bam Bam was given a final chance with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Aptly ending a career fraught with disappointment and unmet expectations, Meulens faded into obscurity batting .067 and connecting just once in a final fifteen at bats with one, final homerun.  

If Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens were 21 and playing in double or triple A right now, what would alert the astute fantasy general manager to stay away from this would-be uber-prospect?  In order to determine the answer, we must first credit Meulens for a few things. One of which is his physique.  Hensley fit the profile of a bona fide slugger. At 6’3, and weighing in at over 200 lbs, Meulens soared through several tiers of the minor leagues at an expectedly quick rate given his prospect status. Although never much of a base stealer, Bam Bam showed his savvy on the basepaths, swiping 14 bags in 17 attempts in 1987.

What were some weaknesses in Hensley’s game? First, he was never particularly selective at the plate. While never setting records for whiffs in the minor leagues, Meulens was home run happy, and his long swing seemed perfectly suited for a righty friendly ballpark, not lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium. With a fragile temperament and inability to hit in the clutch, hindsight certainly tells us that Meulens seemed in jeopardy to catastrophically flop in the intense, media-frenzied city of New York.

Knowing their proverbial customer, it would appear that Meulens, in part, fell victim to his own mishandling by Yankee brass. Each time Bam Bam was given a chance to succeed yet underperformed as a big leaguer, he was reassigned to the minors. Having played only two almost-consecutive stints in the Majors to end 1990 and start 1991, Hensley Meulens was never given the opportunity to adapt to Major League pitching and make adjustments in his plate approach. Again, each time Bam Bam floundered he was demoted. Players often take time to adjust to life and pitching in the Bigs. We ponder what the consequences of a series of demotions and promotions on the psyche of a player, even if that player was of heartier mental composition. What if, for example, Alex Gordon had been demoted during his atrocious start during 2007? What if Tom Glavine had been demoted after two horrific seasons to begin his Atlanta Brave career, the sophomore effort of which resulted in a 7-17 record with a 4.56 ERA? The importance of nurturing a rising talent and directing that player toward success should not be undersold. To see the impact of the alternative (i.e. bouncing a player up and down between minors and majors in excess) look no further than the now infamous and unfortunate tale of Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens.

2. Luis Medina

From the moment Luis Medina became a professional ballplayer at age 22, he impressed fans and scouts alike with his ability to put the ball over the fence.  His rise though the depths of the minors was consistent and quick.

Playing in low A ball in 1985, Medina belted 12 homers in only 290 at-bats, while managing a mediocre .266 batting average.  The year was not perfect, however, as Medina struck out an alarming 72 times.

Medina spent all of 1986 in high A ball, where he first came to the attention of the Cleveland brass.  There, he walloped 35 homers, drove in 110 runs and hit .317 in 505 at-bats.  Equally impressive, were his 75 walks (compared to 105 K’s), a big improvement from the previous year. 

After his extraordinary performance in A ball, Cleveland decided to test Medina by promoting him to double A, the level of the minor leagues where many a budding prospect falters and falls into baseball oblivion.  Medina not only survived double A – he excelled.  In 341 at-bats, Medina hit .320 with 16 homers, 68 rbis and even stole 10 bases.  In addition, Medina continued to walk a respectable amount, notching a .403 OBP. 

In 1988, the now 25 year old Medina began the season in triple A for some fine tuning before his imminent major league call-up.  Knocking on the Indians’ door, Medina continued to crush the ball.  In only 406 at-bats Medina slammed 28 homers, drove in 81 runs and hit .310.  Although Medina’s power continued to impress, his strike out numbers increased exponentially with 107 K’s compared to 42 BB’s. 

With these kind of numbers it is no surprise that Medina was dubbed the next big Cleveland prospect and was called up to the majors in 1988.  What is surprising, however, is Medina’s complete and utter lack of success on the major league level.  He went from dominant minor leaguer to easy-out major leaguer.  Limited to 150 major league at-bats spread across three seasons, Medina hit 10 homers, but was overmatched with a combined .207 batting average.  The most telling statistic, however, are his strikeouts.  Medina walked only 9 times but struck out in 60 of his 150 at bats. 

In an effort to put Medina back on track, he was sent back down to triple A to work on his mechanics.  Showing the same mastery of the minors in 1990 that he displayed in previous seasons, Medina hit .272 with 18 homers in 320 minor league at-bats.  Likewise, in 1991 Medina hit .324 with 28 homers and 98 rbi’s in 450 triple A at-bats.  After the 1991 season Cleveland gave up on him, and in 1992 the 29 year-old Medina played for Kansas City’s triple A team, Omaha, where he hit .276 with 16 homers in 341 at-bats.  That was Medina’s final season in professional baseball before heading to the Japanese League. 

Why did Medina fail?  Theories abound, but the statistics show an inability to make contact off of major-league quality pitching.  Despite his power, the 60 strikeouts in 150 major league at-bats show he was overmatched.  Some players strike out a lot, but still manage a respectable batting average.  Unfortunately for Medina and the Indians, his .207 average illustrates he was not among those players. 

But critics would call this an insufficient explanation why Medina failed at the major league level; after all, he had posted solid batting averages and good BB:K numbers in the low minors.  Are single A stats completely meaningless then?  Clearly, we must dig a little deeper.  First, Medina struck out over 100 times in 505 single A at-bats in 1986.  If a player strikes out that much in the low minors it is not a stretch to imagine he will whiff more frequently against more talented, major league pitching.  Second, Medina played much of his minor league career in hitter-friendly ballparks that skewed his stats.  While Medina was in double A, he played in the Midwest league, widely known throughout baseball as a hitter friendly league.  Moreover, Medina’s triple A seasons were played in the rarified air of Colorado Springs.  Just as Colorado’s thin air helped former Rockies players such as Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Vinny Castilla hit scores of homers, the same can be said of its effect for Medina.  Third, it reminds us that baseball is a business.  As such, a competitive ball club in the thick of a pennant race often cannot afford patience with a batter who requires time to adjust to the pitching and rigorous schedule of the Bigs. If a minor leaguer is called up and falters, teams therefore, may be loathe to give the player additional opportunities, especially if there are other prospects or talent available as alternatives. 

This edition of the Report has selectively limited its focus to Luis Medina and Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens. There are enumerable such players, among the more recent of them are Reggie Jefferson, Sam Horn, Brien Taylor, Shawn Abner, and Eric Anthony.  Few doubt that Meulens and Medina were talented athletes, who expertly flashed their power against minor league pitching and seemed bound for stardom.

Looking back with the clarity of 20/20 hindsight, Medina and Meulens were ultimately undone by both their lack of ability to adjust their approach in the Majors, and perhaps by their parent club’s mishandling of them.  Both players lacked plate patience early on, and became unsurprisingly repetitive strikeout victims at the big league level.  In large part as a consequence, both were bounced up and down variously by their parent club and were perhaps never given the necessary guidance while floundering in the early going.  For these reasons we recommend caution when gambling on slugger-type prospects with lopsided BB:K ratios, especially those on teams that have shown an inability to properly nurture rising talent. 

posted @ Sunday, January 27, 2008 11:54 AM by Russell Sandman & Evan Rosen

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