Strat-O-Matic released the numbers for the upcoming 2007 set on January 9th.  I haven’t received them yet and it will take a little bit to crunch them, so I decided to talk about something else today.

I receive many of the same questions around the same subject.  “I was offered a draft pick for a player, should I take it?”  “What is this player worth?”  I try to give them a straight answer.  This week someone asked the question, “How did you figure that out so quick?”

That’s a fair question, so I’ll answer it.  Before I do, I need to explain my standard strategy for winning keeper leagues:  In most keeper leagues, if you want a player that is currently on a roster, you need to trade for them.  If you want a player not on a roster, you draft them.  So, you can trade and you can draft.  Each has its own advantages and disadvantages.

Trading
The primary advantage of trading is that you usually know exactly what you are getting.  You are getting card value, or a prospect with some perceived future card value, or you can trade draft picks.  The primary disadvantage to trading is that you have to give something up to receive something.  If your trade partner is equally knowledgeable, then you should give up equal value to what you get.

Equal value is a complex thing, I know.  If you traded prospects for Chris Carpenter after Carpenter was out for the season, knowing that Carpenter’s card was going to ensure a trip to the playoffs, that trade may not seem to be equal to everyone.  Your desire to win made it equal.

Drafting
The primary advantage to drafting is that you don’t pay anything to roster someone.  Your draft pick comes and you select someone, and that player is yours.  If you are smart and lucky, you can pick a winner regardless of when you draft.  Last year, Stephen Drew went in the top five picks.  Troy Tulowitzki went second round.  Even if you drafted last, there was a good chance you could have the best shortstop in the draft.  On the other hand, if you took Drew, you didn’t do as well (yet).  So, while you may have a player for nothing, even if you that the next available conventional wisdom pick, you might end up with nothing come next year.  You just don’t know.

Merging Trading and Drafting
So, how do you merge the two?  First, let’s look at determining the value of a player in draft picks.  This year, I trade Frank Thomas in my twenty team home league.  First, I looked for a comparable player.  I found Jack Cust in the draft.  Frank Thomas has a year on his contract and Cust will have about the same future, I figure.  They both hit for power and walk, but their batting average is low.  Neither one can run or field a position.  I then figured that Cust, based upon his card would be a mid-third round pick.  So, I figured Thomas is worth a third round pick.  If I received more, that is great, but if I took less than I wasn't getting a fair market value for him.

Now, I was asked about Jimmy Rollins.  Well, I answered back that there wasn’t a player in the draft worth Rollins, so even the #1 overall pick wasn’t going to cover it. In such a case, there is no single draft pick with Rollins.  Last year, you could.

What is nice about this method is that it is based upon your league.  If you league drafts hitters over pitchers, you adjust your list and our picks accordingly.

Best Value
The values of these commodities change over time.  A draft pick is cheaper around the mid-season trading deadline while at the same time card value is at it’s maximum value.  If you have a player you can’t use, don’t take a crappy deal before the season starts.  Hold on to that player until the trading deadline.

Draft picks are their most expensive just before the draft. That is when players go much cheaper as people have thought of what they are gong to get and have become infatuated with youth.

Just some thoughts.  Hopefully next week, we’ll start looking at card values.