The 2003 Boston Red Sox, under the sabermetric management of Theo Epstein and Bill James, decided to entrust the ninth inning to a closer by committee. James, at the time a Red Sox senior adviser, called the switch a no-brainer. "Using your relief ace to protect a three-run lead is like a business using a top executive to negotiate fire insurance," James said. He contended that the system of setup men leading to a ninth-inning closer wasn't efficient and that managers wasted their best relief pitcher protecting three-run leads in the ninth. According to James’ computer simulations, when a relief ace pitches at least one inning when the game is tied, say in the seventh inning, a team's winning percentage is .574; when it doesn't happen, the winning percentage drops to near .500.
Hindsight is certainly 20/20 as the sabermetric formula for dispensing with the formal closer failed. In spite of the fact that a larger scale experiment involving multiple teams and bullpens might yield a very different result, no team since has begun and ended a season with the same closer by committee. Typically, one reliever will rise above his cohorts and prove singularly resistant to the mental and emotional burden of safeguarding late-inning leads. Before the Boston experiment and certainly since, top flight closers have gained a certain celebrity and now command salaries on par with the game’s everyday, offensive superstars.
Scouting the minors for future closers can feel like scouring for computer geeks at Harvard in search of the next Bill Gates: there is an abundance of talent, but few sure things. Numerous “can’t miss” minor league closer prospects fail to live up to their hype each season. Whether we are talking about Ryan Wagner, Joey Devine, or Jose Capellan, many aspiring stoppers have toiled in middle relief never to live up to their billing.
While very few closer-hopefuls fulfill expectations, there are some in recent memory who have immediately impressed: Chad Cordero, Huston Street, and Jonathan Papelbon. Even more exciting, though, is when lesser known prospects rise above the bullpen masses to take the reigns and assume the closer role. In recent years, we have seen this phenomenon happen with Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo, Matt Capps, and Joe Borowski. Our task in this edition of the Report is to identify those players in low minor league ball most likely to become future closers for their major league affiliate. For a variety of reasons discussed below, we believe Eduardo Morlan and Sam Gervacio should be on your watch list.
1. Eduardo Morlan (Tampa Bay, RP)
Minnesota drafted Eduardo Morlan in the 3rd round, 91st overall, in the 2004 amateur draft. Morlan was a mere 18 years of age at the time, and like most relievers, was auditioned as a starting pitcher first. In his first year of professional baseball in 2004, Eduardo compiled 25 innings pitched, striking out 28 batters, walking 10, and allowing 25 hits in 2 game starts of 11 total appearances. 2005 saw, then starting pitcher, Morlan jump from rookie ball to the Midwest League (low A ball). After a surreal stint in rookie ball, Morlan’s numbers for Beloit were less than impressive. Although surrendering a mere 39 hits and 5 long-balls in 51.1 IP, he allowed a robust 31 walks. Perhaps lack of command and the learning curve inherent to any promotion were responsible for a 4.38 ERA in A ball to end 2004.
In 2006, Morlan tossed 106.1 innings for Beloit, splitting time between the rotation and the pen (28 appearances, 18 games started). Showing drastic improvement, Morlan yielded only 78 hits and 38 base-on-balls, good enough for a 1.09 WHIP. Equally stellar was his 2.29 ERA and 125 strikeouts (10.6 K/9 IP).
Morlan became a full time relief pitcher and closer for his minor league club in 2007. Amassing 18 saves in the Florida State League, he continued to dominate opposing batters. In 65.2 inning pitched, Morlan allowed 55 hits and 17 walks, resulting in a 1.10 WHIP. All of Morlan’s core stats demonstrate an inability for batters to make solid contact off of his pitches. For example, opposing batters managed a pitiful .218 batting average off of Morlan. Moreover, Morlan whiffed 92 batters, or 12.7 K’s per 9 IP.
It is clear that Minnesota was on to something by moving Morlan to the pen. Like many other rotation converts, a move the bullpen enabled Morlan to give 110% against every batter he faced without concern for stamina. Wielding a fastball that reaches 96 mph and a good slider, Morlan has the “stuff” and control to be a future closer in the Bigs.
The closer’s role in Minnesota is blocked by all-star Joe Nathan, so fortuitously for Morlan, he was traded to the weak-pitching Tampa Bay Rays in November as part of the Delmon Young deal. With 38-year olds Troy Percival, Al Reyes (4.90 ERA in the closer role last year) dueling it out for the closer role this year, Morlan has every chance to be anointed closer-of-the-future.
2. Sam Gervacio (Houston, RP)
Signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Houston Astros prior to the 2003 season, this 22-year old has never had an ERA above 2.67 in four different levels of the minors. Unlike Eduardo Momrlan, Gervacio has never been given a trial as a starting pitcher. Always billed as a reliever and having been so dominant, Sam Gervacio is now on the fast track to the majors. His heretofore quick ascent could explain why the Astros were willing to deal Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls for a potential stopgap closer in Jose Valverde.
After spending 2004 in the Dominican League, Gervacio began his professional career in the Appalachian League (rookie ball) in 2005. In 33.2 innings pitched, he posted a 2.67 ERA with 8 saves. Showing no trouble adjusting to professional ball, Gervacio let up only 24 hits while whiffing an eye-popping 14.17 batters per nine innings (53K’s in 33.2 IP). Many young pitchers with dominant stuff have similar strikeout numbers, but have trouble getting the ball over the plate. Not Gervacio; showing pinpoint control, he walked only eight batters and had a 0.89 WHIP.
With rookie ball proving no challenge, Gervacio was promoted to A ball at the end of 2005 and for the start of the 2006 season. In 2005, Gervacio tossed nine innings, striking out 11, with a 0.96 ERA and 0.54 WHIP. Not benefiting from beginner’s luck, Gervacio’s 2006 season cemented his status as a superb talent. In 83.2 innings pitched he had a 2.47 ERA and permitted a stingy 58 hits. In addition, Gervacio had 89 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. After being installed as closer, Gervacio went on to save 10 games in 18 appearances.
By 2007, the decision came down from Houston brass to promote Gervacio yet again, to see if his performance could withstand stiffer competition. Not only did he prove his legitimacy, but Gervacio established himself as one of the elite prospects in the Astros system. To start the season, he was assigned to the Carolina league (high A). There, Gervacio tossed 55.1 innings and saved 18 games (finishing 15 others) en route to a 2.44 ERA. Moreover, he yielded only 42 hits and 15 walks, while strikeout out a mind-numbing 80 hitters. Although the batters were supposedly more advanced than low A ball, they managed a diminutive .204 batting average off Gervacio.
A tremendous start compelled Houston to advance the now 22-year old to the Texas League (AA). In spite of struggling with control for the first time in his career, Gervacio maintained his dominance. In 22.2 innings pitched, Gervacio had a 1.99 ERA and allowed 15 hits and 11 walks. Still as unhittable as ever, Gervacio struck out 24 batters and batters hit only .197 against him.
Other pitchers in the Astros system, such as Bud Norris, get higher ratings from scouts. But as good as players like Norris are (117 K in 96.2 IP in ’07), they do not have the track record of success that Gervacio has shown. More importantly, players like Norris walk too many batters to excel in the majors, whereas Gervacio has demonstrated an outstanding combination of control and strikeouts. For this reason, we think Gervacio could become the future closer of the Astros.
There are many others future closer candidates we plan to explore in future editions of the Report. Morlan and Gervacio represent just two of a bevy of young flamethrowers who will be joining major league bullpens at a stadium near you soon.