This off-season two prominent Japanese baseball players have joined major league clubs. Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome has joined the Chicago Cubs, and pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda signed with the LA Dodgers. Will Fokudome be the next Hideki Matsui or the next Kaz Matsui? Likewise, will Kuroda be the next Hideo Nomo or Hideki Irabu? Predicting the future for Japanese imports has never been an easy task. Once upon a time the New York media labeled Hideki Irabu the next Roger Clemens, but instead, he turned into the next Jose Lima. Nonetheless, we are willing to jump into the statistical fray and make some bold predictions on how Fukudome and Kuroda will fare in 2008.
1. Kosuke Fukudome (OF)
A fantasy force in the Japanese league, after nine seasons the 30-year old Fukudome decided to forego the comfort of his home country for the richer pastures of (and richer salary offered by) Chicago. Fukudome was a star in the Japan. Since 2003 Fukudome has averaged almost 24 homers a year with an on-base percentage well over .400. Although his 2007 season was shortened due to injury, he still managed 13 homers in 269 at-bats and a .443 on-base percentage. More impressive was his 2006 campaign, where he hit 31 homers in 496 at-bats, along with 47 doubles, 11 steals, a .351 batting average and a .438 on-base percentage.
Such stunning statistics demonstrate an impressive skill set that many believe will translate well into the hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Many scouts believe Fukudome is the best offensive player in Japan. Though clear that he does not have the power of Hideki Matsui, nor the speed of Kaz Matsui, Fukudome would seem a significant all-around player with terrific plate patience, above-average power, and a plus throwing arm.
Despite his gaudy overall numbers abroad, we do not believe Fukudome will live up to his superstar billing. For one thing, ballparks in Japan tend to be smaller and pitching not major league caliber. In 2008, he will be recovering from elbow surgery to remove bone chips. Between adjusting to larger ball parks, pitchers of higher quality, and recovering from elbow surgery, we expect Fukudome’s 2008 numbers to drop well below his Japanese norms.
Save for future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, many Japanese imports have suffered statistical decline after a move to the major leagues. We will offer you three cautionary tales that should give you pause before you feverishly pursue Kosuke Fukudome at your draft or auction.
First is Hideki Matsui. In the three years prior to his American debut, Matsui averaged almost 43 homers a year with 106 rbi’s. Yet, his first year with the Yankees he only managed 16 homers in a whopping 623 at-bats – 123 at bats more than his previous year in Japan when he hit 50 homers. Indeed, Matsui has never managed more than 31 homers a year – far from his heyday of prolific power in Japan.
Second, we will examine former Japanese phenom Kaz Matsui. After a multiple team bidding war, Matsui signed with the New York Mets in 2004 at age 27. So highly touted was he defensively, that Kaz forced the previous shortstop-of-the-future Jose Reyes to second base. To say that Matsui has never lived up to the hype would be an understatement. After hitting 33 homers in 2003, 36 in 2002, 24 in 2001, and 23 in 2000 in Japan - Matsui managed only 7 long-balls in 460 at-bats in his Mets debut, one of which was hit in his first-ever major league at bat. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all sharply declined since his move. Even after recapturing a fraction of his former glory in 2007 with Colorado (which resulted in a three-year contract with Houston to enter 2008) Matsui’s previous Seibu power and RBI prowess show no sign of return. Yet another example of a former Japanese all-star who has become nothing more than an average major league player.
Third and lastly, we will explore former third-base Japanese superstar Akinori Iwamura. Like Kaz Matsui, Iwamura entered the major leagues at age 27. He totaled 32 homers in 2006, 44 in 2004, and 12 homers in less than half of a season in 2003. In 2007 with Tampa Bay, Iwamura scrapped only 7 homers, stole 12 bases, and batted .285 in 491 at bats. A far cry from the 30 to 40 home run power he flashed for Yakult in Japan, Akinori Iwamura has become more a defensive than offensive option for the Rays.
Our expectations are shaped, in part, by the cautionary tales of Hideki Matsui, Kazuo Matsui, and Akinori Iwamura. But what can be expected of Kosuke Fukudome? With each of our previous examples, a resounding theme was a precipitous drop in power. Fukudome’s 30 home run power might well be halved by major league pitching. His batting average, OBP, and slugging should all fall. Fukudome’s stolen base totals may well increase as he becomes more reliant on exploiting that aspect of his offensive game. In a Cubs’ lineup featuring Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Derek Lee, Fukudome will be viewed as a piece of the bigger puzzle instead of an offensive anchor. In spite of the lineup protection and hitter-friendly ballpark, it is hard to expect a repeat of Fukudome’s dazzling 2007 performance in Japan. We do, however, anticipate a high OBP with a batting average in the .270-.280 range, 30 plus doubles, 13 to 17 homers, and around 15 to 20 steals.
2. Hiroki Kuroda (SP)
Considered by many to be the best free agent pitcher available, the Dodgers believe they got a bargain when they signed the 32-year old Kuroda to a $35.3 million, three year contract. Portrayed by the Japanese media as a workhorse, he’s been billed as an inning-eating pitcher that is able to keep his team in the game.
Kuroda’s previous two seasons in Japan are evidence of his ability to dominate there. In 2006, the six foot, 190 pound right-handed Kuroda was lights-out. He tossed 189 Innings, yielding only 169 hits and 21 walks, good enough for a sparkling 1.00 WHIP and a 1.85 ERA. Although not as impressive as 2006, Kuroda’s 2007 season was also stellar. In 179 innings pitched Kuroda allowed 176 hits and 46 walks, on his way to a 3.56 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Despite his impressive statistics, scouts believe Kuroda “lost something” in 2007 and would have been better off seeking a major league contract after the 2006 season. Nonetheless, Kuroda’s ability to go deep into games and his terrific four pitch arsenal both earn rave reviews. Kuroda features a low 90’s fastball, a slider, forkball, and a shuuto – described as a reverse slider similar to a screwball, with less break.
Expected to be the third or fourth starter for the Dodgers in ’08, it is difficult to prognosticate Kuroda’s final statistical line. On the one hand, Kuroda has the advantage of pitching in a somewhat pitcher-friendly park with a strong Japanese fan base. Yet, hitters in the major leagues tend to be stronger and more consistent than their Japanese counterparts. Never a dominant strikeout pitcher, we expect Kuroda to put up stats similar to Jeff Suppan. Thus, we expect low walk and strikeout totals, a decent ERA (low to mid 4.00’s) and a pleasant but unremarkable WHIP of 1.30 - nothing too flashy or dominant.
Both Fukudome and Kuroda could be valuable Fantasy Baseball options for the 2008 season. However, we caution you not to expect them to reach the level of success they achieved in Japan and to value them accordingly. Like other such imports, we anticipate a significant statistical drop off relative to their star status in Japan, but could still provide value for your team. Lacking the media hype of Hideki Matsui or Ichiro, Fukudome and Kuroda could find themselves surprisingly undervalued on draft day. If others shy away from them at auction, or hold off until the later rounds of a draft, these two Japanese players could provide some fantasy help at bargain basement prices.