Welcome back to the Minor-ity Report. This week we focus on five category players – those players who add balance to your roster in all statistical categories. Players such as Jimmy Rollins, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran are among the most valued fantasy players because they put up big numbers in every statistical category. For example, why waste your time on Dan Uggla (.245-31-88-2), when you can get Brandon Phillips (.288-30-94-32). Those extra steals make Phillips significantly more valuable than Uggla. As you know, these players usually are expensive on auction day, so better to discover them while they are still in the minors and get a leg up on the competition. We focus on two players who have a chance to put up stats similar to Curtis Granderson’s 2007 performance (.302-23-74-26): Chris Nelson and Michael Saunders.
1. Chris Nelson (SS, Colorado)
Chris Nelson was selected in the 1st round with the Rockies’ 9th overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft. A diminutive 5’11 and weighing in at only 176 lbs, Nelson was already swinging a big bat at the tender age of 18. Now at 21 years of age, Chris Nelson already has four seasons of professional baseball under his belt, and potentially a bright future ahead of him in the major leagues.
After being drafted in 2004, Nelson had a 147 at-bat audition in the rookie league. There, he hit 4 homers, drove in 20 runs, stole 6 bases, and batted .347/.432/.510/.942. Not a bad performance given 2004 was Chris Nelson’s first crack at professional pitching, and he was only 18 years old. 2005 represented a statistical step backward for Nelson but perhaps a lesson in humility. In Asheville of Single A, and in 315 at-bats, the former first round draft pick managed only 3 homers, 38 RBI, 7 SB, and batted an unimpressive .241/.304/.330/.634.
Given his age and troubles the previous season, in 2006 Colorado brass decided to give Nelson another crack at South Atlantic League (A) pitching. He went on to hit 11 homers, drove in 76 runs, stole 14 bases, and batted .260/.313/.416/.729 in 466 at-bats. We realize that, so far, you might be wondering how we arrived at the conclusion that Chris Nelson qualifies as a four category player.
In the California League during 2007, Nelson exploded. Perhaps the struggles of 2005 were instructive for the young shortstop, because he put on an offensive display in for the Rockies’ A+ affiliate Modesto. Hitting .289/.358/.503/.861 with 19 homers, 99 RBI, 27 steals and a jaw-dropping 42 two-baggers, Nelson had seemingly arrived. What made 2007 so special for Nelson was less the power he finally displayed or the speed he flashed on the base paths, but rather his 55:92 BB:K ratio. In previous seasons, Nelson failed to make adjustments to opposing pitchers and appeared to lack the plate discipline required of a major league starting shortstop. Nelson’s single greatest achievement in ’07, and the reason we feel he merits attention as a budding four category talent going forward, is his approach and poise at the plate.
It is clear that Nelson is positionally blocked by Troy Tulowitzki at the major league level. With Tulowitzki’s defensive prowess at shortstop and stellar rookie season in 2007, we do not anticipate him changing position to make room for Nelson. Instead, Nelson will have to prove he can either play elsewhere on the field, or show Colorado management that 2007 was a mere glimpse at the talent he possesses.
We do not expect Nelson to match or even approach the offensive output of current major league four category shortstops Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, or Derek Jeter. Nelson has fallen short of expectations since his first round pick status and will continue to carry the burden that blue chip status confers. It is, however, our feeling that if Nelson can build on the progress represented by 2007 and continue his offensive growth in 2008, he may find himself a major leaguer by 2010 or sooner.
2. Michael Saunders (OF, Seattle)
Saunders, a former 11th round pick of the Seattle Mariners in the 2004 amateur draft and current member of Team Canada, also has had an up and down minor league career.
Seattle brass assigned the 18-year old Saunders to rookie ball in 2005, and he showed little difficulty adjusting to professional pitching. In only 196 at-bats, Saunders showed strong power – slugging 7 homers in only 196 at bats. He also hit a respectable .270 with a .369 OBP%. Yet, he struck out a lot (74 k’s in 56 games) and stole only 2 bases in 9 attempts.
Seeking to build on his debut, in 2006 Saunders was promoted to the club’s Single A affiliate in the Midwest League. But Saunders bombed badly. In 360 at-bats, Saunders struggled to a .239 batting average and hit only 4 homers in 390 at-bats, belying the power he seemingly showed in ’05. On a more positive note, Saunders swiped 22 bases in 28 attempts and improved his plate discipline considerably. Most 11th round picks cannot survive too many seasons hitting .239, so 2007 became a make-or-break year for the young outfielder.
Saunders 2007 season saw him go from struggling minor leaguer to future star. Splitting time between high A ball and Double A, Saunders slugged 15 homers and 26 doubles and 84 rbi’s in 483 at-bats. In addition to hitting for power, Saunders continued to run the bases, racking up 29 steals. More importantly, Saunders further improved his ability to make solid contact on the ball and lay off bad pitches, as evidenced by his .298 batting average and .390 OBP%.
After finishing 6th in the league in steals and 9th in runs, Saunders was picked to participate in the 2007 Futures Game, featuring the top talent in the minor leagues. There, he was the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter.
Prior to the 2007 season, scouts referred to Saunders as a toolsy player with a long swing. His strikeouts remain high, but his BB:K rate has improved every year in the minors. Still only 20 years old, there is every reason to believe Saunders can make the adjustments necessary to ensure success in ’08 and beyond. With solid overall defense, an attractive power/speed combination, and reduced strikeouts, expect to see Saunders hit the major league scene by mid 2009.
Both Chris Nelson and Michael Saunders are multicategory talents that merit your attention entering 2008. Neither is a polished, major league ready player, but both have the skill-set required to homer, steal, drive in runs, and shoot your team straight to the top.