This edition of Minor-ity Report focuses on speedsters in the low minors.  Stolen bases have become a hot commodity in fantasy baseball.  Reliable thieves are rare and often hard to come by.  Players such as Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford, and Jose Reyes remain consistent sources of steals. However, the scarcity of serious competitors atop the leader board has created a renewed and disproportionate demand for the thief. 

As a fantasy baseball general manager, this relative premium of stolen bases only makes them more valuable to your team.  Drafting or purchasing-at-auction even one major speedster can shift the balance of power in steals in your league to your statistical favor. That the astute fantasy GM will need to bargain shop and root out obscure, undiscovered sources of speed should now be an accepted necessity on the road to victory.  Instead of resting your hopes of stolen base supremacy on drafting Jose Reyes, perhaps the wiser decision may just be to discover and acquire the next Juan Pierre before anyone else in your league is the wiser. 

The question is how?  There are enumerable players in the low minors who swipe bases, but very few will make it to the majors, and even fewer will develop into dependable stolen-base threats.  When scouring for obscure, table-setting talent, we look for players that have a good eye at the plate, make consistent contact, steal without getting caught, and have enough pop in their bat that they will not likely be typecast as a late inning defensive replacement or a pinch runner. 

This edition of the Report will highlight three players who could represent the next class of bonafide speedsters: John Raynor, Desmond Jennings, and Ryan Kalish. 

John Raynor (Florida): This 6-2, 23-year old, former 9th round pick has lit up the basepaths since entering professional ball in 2006.  An outfielder featuring not just speed, but also power and plate discipline, Raynor projects as an outstanding leadoff hitter in the bigs.  Some have compared him to vintage speedster Lenny Dysktra.

In 2006, Raynor began his career in the New York Penn league, registering 199 at-bats in 54 games.  In such limited time, Raynor managed a .286 batting average and a .356 on-base percentage.  Moreover, Raynor swiped 21 bases in 23 attempts, and accumulated 8 doubles, 4 triples, and 4 homers.

Raynor built on his solid opening campaign, with an even more impressive 2007 season.  Playing for Greensboro, Raynor stole 54 bases in 62 attempts and hit .333 with an outstanding .429 on-base percentage.  He made contact more often, and his eye improved, as evidenced by his 66:98 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  Raynor’s power also improved; in 445 at-bats he hit 13 homers and notched 28 two-baggers. 

Scouts and other experts are beginning to take notice of Raynor and you should too.  Baseball America’s Mike Berardino recently named Raynor the fastest player in the Marlins’ minor league system.  Marlins hitting coordinator John Mallee had this to say about Raynor, “Last year he walked very few times (17 in 199 at-bats). This year he’s learned to work the count and his OBP is over .400. . .He’s a tough kid, he’s not afraid of the ball, he’s taking his walks. As he learns to get deeper in the count and put the two-strike balls into play, his batting average will stay over .300.”

Our advice: get Raynor now before others find out about him or keep his name at the top of your wishlist until the day Florida brass deems him ready for a call.

Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay): Hailing from Birmingham, Alabama, this 21-year old outfield prospect has the potential to develop into the next Grady Sizemore.  Like Raynor, Jennings has an impressive combination of power, speed, and plate discipline that could someday translate into major league stardom. 

Jennings began his professional career in 2006 at the tender age of 19.  Despite his age, Jennings had no trouble adapting to professional ball.  Playing in the Appalachian League, Jennings appeared in 56 games and stepped up to bat 213 times.  He hit .270 with a .366 OBP% and 32 bases in 37 attempts.  

Although 2006 was a solid year for Jennings, 2007 is the season that really put him on the fantasy baseball map.  In 387 at-bats, Jennings hit 9 homers, 21 doubles and stole 45 bases, while managing a .315 batting average and a .401 OBP.  Looking at his place discipline, Jennings compiled 45 walks while only striking out 53 times.   

If he continues to develop, we believe Jennings has a chance to debut in the majors by 2010.   He is an outstanding contact hitter, who does not strike out a lot and appears to have a good eye.  Having slammed 9 homers and 21 doubles in only 387 at-bats is demonstrative that there is some pop in his bat, and that with continued development, Jennings could turn into a legitimate five category player.  You don’t need us to tell you how rare those players are, so stay tuned to the Minor-ity Report as we follow his progress in the years ahead.

Ryan Kalish (Boston): The youngest player profiled in this edition, Kalish had, perhaps the most impressive, yet most abbreviated, 2007 season of the three.  Drafted in the 9th round of the 2006 draft, Kalish began his career splitting time between the Gulf Coast League and New York Penn League in 2006.  After playing in only 17 games due to contract-negotiation-related delays after being drafted, Kalish first showed glimpses of his potential in 2007.

Although limited to 23 games and 87 at-bats in 2007 in low A ball due to a wrist injury, Kalish put up some staggering numbers.  He hit .368 with a .471 OBP%, smacked 3 homers and stole a remarkable 18 bases in 21 attempts.  Equally impressive, Kalish walked more than he struck out – 16 walks compared to 12 K’s.   To put these numbers in perspective, projecting these stats to a 522 at-bat season  would have resulted in 18 homers, with a jaw-dropping 108 steals. 

A former three-sport athlete Scouts agree that Kalish is a “toolsy” outfielder with a lot of raw potential.  According to Sox Prospects, Kalish has leadoff hitter potential with developing power.  He is also a good defender with great range and a strong arm, traits which should hasten his rise through the Red Sox system. Other scouts rave about his willingness to take the first pitch, and his ability to make contact even with two strikes in the count. 

We realize that 87 at-bats is not a large sample size to base any projections off of, but his surreal statistical output and scouting were so good that Kalish certainly merits keeping a close eye on in 2008.  

Raynor, Jennings, and Kalish are several members of the elite future class of base-stealers.  Likely never to share, in equal, the publicity of their slugging counterparts, these thieves on the basepaths will nonetheless prove just as important to your team’s future fantasy baseball success.   

Copyright © 2007 Russell Sandman and Evan Rosen