Starting Pitchers. Where to begin? I have spent the better half of my twenty-plus years playing this game trying to figure out pitchers. I’d like to say that I’ve made some breakthrough, but I haven’t. Looking at the numbers doesn’t tell you the whole story. If you see someone striking out a hitter an inning and striking out three hitters for every walk, it is easy to say that guy is going to be successful. The trick is to pick the guy out of the pile in the sixth round that doesn’t have good numbers but has the stuff to be successful.
I feel the most comfortable when half of my roster is pitchers and half of them are starters. In my hometown league, my 40 man roster has ten starters, of which I hope to build a five man rotation.
I figure there will be 41 new cards to players that I consider to be primarily starters. This includes pitchers with the last names of A-through-L. I’ll get to M-through-Z next week.
Matt Albers
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Albers does have the makings of three good pitches, a low-90’s fastball that if he reaches back can get up into the mid-90’s, a slider and a curveball. His numbers are terrible, but he has good stuff, so he makes for a good middle round speculative pick.
Homer Bailey
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Triple-A
2008 Role: Possible #4 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
There has been much hype for Bailey. He has a mid-90’s fastball that he can get into the high-90’s, a good curve and change. His control wasn’t as good this year as it was last year. I have two concerns for him. First, he had problems with his fastball. Sometimes he had the mid-90’s fastball with good last action and sometimes he didn’t. I don’t feel comfortable when a pitcher’s stuff changes so much. Second, he pitches for the Reds. Let’s face it, that is not a good place to pitch. I’d rather have a Rockies’ pitcher over a Reds’ pitcher right now.
Dallas Braden
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Triple-A
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Braden had a great 2005 including six starter in the AFL, but missed most of 2006 with a shoulder injury. His numbers in Double-A and Triple-A were great, but he wasn’t so good in his Major League debut. He has the stuff to be a solid contributor, but I’m not sure if he will have a Major League job next year. He is a middle round speculation pick.
Billy Buckner
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Buckner has a low-90’s fastball, a below average changeup and a wicked knuckle-curve. He has had control issues, but this year was much better. The Royals will have a ton of pitchers fighting for the #5 spot, so he will have to have an outstanding spring to be on the team. That makes him a late round speculation pick.
Brian Burres
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible Starter or Reliever
Career: Triple-A
Classification: Non-Prospect
Burres has a high-80’s fastball when he is on with a curve and a slider. When he is off, it is a mid-80’s fastball. The Orioles needed innings, and Burres delivered. Baseball America rated him the 29th Orioles’ prospect which means that on any other team he wouldn’t even get rated. His 121 innings requires that I talk about him.
Matt Chico
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter or Triple-A
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Chico has four usable pitches, a low-90’s four-seam fastball, a high-80’s two-seam fastball, curve and changeup. He can throw any of them for strikes. A combination of too many flyballs and a loss of control meant that he was shipped down to Triple-A for a week for adjustments. I think that the Nationals might send him to Triple-A next year, as he never pitched at that level.
Tyler Clippard
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Triple-A
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Of all the Yankee prospects, Tyler Clippard has the most refined stuff. His fastball is high-80’s to low 90’s, but his curve and changeup are both good pitches. He had a rough season and Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain have both passed him up. He is one of those pitchers who needs a whole year at a level before he masters that level, so next year is Triple-A.
John Danks
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Danks was only 21 when he broke into Triple-A. That is pretty good. He put together a couple of good starts early, but stunk the rest of the year. The trade of John Garland opens up a spot for him. He has a four-seam that can hit 95 MPH, a plus curve and a good changeup. His two-seamer needs more work.
J.D. Durbin
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter / Bullpen
Career: Bullpen
Classification: Prospect
Durbin used to have a high-90’s fastball and made the Majors at the age of 22 in 2004. Injuries cost him much development time. He still can throw in the mid-90’s, so I think that he’ll end up in the bullpen. I’ve made a career out of pickup up someone like Durbin very late, like the 10th or 12th round in a twenty team league based upon the mid-90’s fastball and ended up with a useful player. Scott Proctor comes to mind.
Ryan Feierabend
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #4 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
I like Feierabend for a couple of reasons, although I don’t like to type his name. The “eie” is surprising difficult to type for some reason, so I’m just going use his first name. Ryan’s out pitch is a circle-change which is a plus pitch. He sets it up with a high-80’s to low-90’s fastball. He also has a slider and a curve. He has excellent control and maturity. The Mariners have not been afraid to promote him early. He was just 20 years old in his debut last year and pitched well as a 21 year-old in Triple-A. He is a sleeper in a keeper league. I think he’ll be in Triple-A next year, but if you have deep rosters, he’s worth holding on for a couple of years.
Kason Gabbard
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Part Time Starter
2008 Role: Possible #3 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
There is a kids show called Yo Gabba Gabba that my two-year old (and I) like to watch. There are all these alternative and punk rock bands that make appearances, so the music is pretty cool. I only mention it because Gabbard and Gabba rhyme. When you draft him, be sure to say Yo! Gabbard! Gabbard! Gabbard has the first playable card. He had some injury issues and he tends to give up the walk in lieu of the hit. Pitching in Texas is not a good thing, but right now he is their #2 starter.
Yovani Gallardo
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: #2 Starter
Career: Future Ace
Classification: Blue Chip
Finally, a good pitcher to talk about. There are no questions about Gallardo’s ability to pitch. His card, I suspect, will be unreal. With a 1b-4, 2b-4, 3b-5 and a cf-4, most of Gallardo’s hits will be X-Chart. That means when you replay the Major League season, you’ll get a 3.67 ERA. When you use him in a PBeM league, he will have a 2.80 ERA card.
Justin Germano
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Starting Pitcher
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
Germano gets a playable card because he plays in San Diego. He has good control, but not the best stuff. Keep in mind that he lost his job late in the season and may be relegated to the bullpen.
Joel Hanrahan
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible Starter
Career: Triple-A
Classification: Non-Prospect
Ate some innings. If he makes the roster as a starter, he’ll eat some more.
Phil Hughes
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Backup Starter
2008 Role: Starter
Career: Ace Starter
Classification: Blue Chip
Phil Hughes is one of the best starting prospects in baseball. As a 21 year-old he dominated both Double and Triple-A. He went on the 60-day disabled list with a hamstring and ankle injuries. The question is will he wear pinstripes? The Yankees don’t want to trade him, but if they want Johan Santana, then Hughes will have to be part of the deal. Pitchers will both power and control are very hard to come by.
Kei Igawa
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Bad Innings
2008 Role: Possible #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Veteran
I know Igawa did not pitch as advertised and it is kind of funny, because the Yankees sure did pay a lot for him. His numbers in Triple-A were good, so I think they will get some value for him. He was the three-time strikeout champion in Japan. He just needs to throw strikes.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Part Time Starter
2008 Role: #2 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Blue Chip
Jimenez features a high-90’s fastball that he can dial up over 100 MPH. That sets up a very good changeup. That combination is nasty. He throws in a slider and a curve for good measure. He has had some control issues in the past, but he can deal it. Sadly, he is a Colorado pitcher, but that could work in your favor as others won’t touch him.
Jair Jurrjens
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Couple of Starts
2008 Role: #3 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
I really like Jair Jurrjens. If you read about him in many publications it will say that he has a low-90’s fastball, because that is where he likes to pitch. He can turn it up into a high-90’s fastball if he needs to. He rarely does, but when he does, the opponent is surprised. That is why the Braves went and got him. They know a good pitcher when they see one.
Kyle Kendrick
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Starter
2008 Role: #4 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
The Phillies needed someone to pitch, and Kyle Kendrick came through. He has a low-90’s fastball and a slider he tends to use too much. He also has a change up that improved to the point that it is a useful pitch. That has made the difference for him. He is one of those types of pitchers who knows that he is not likely to strike out many hitters, so he focuses on not letting the batter get good wood on the ball. That is call pitching, my friends, and that is why he’ll be a useful addition to your rotation.
Aaron Laffey
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Couple of Starts
2008 Role: #5 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher / Possible Bullpen
Classification: Prospect
Reverse Lefty Alert! Laffey is a sinkerball pitcher with a slider and change up. He is also very good at inducing ground balls. So, while he doesn’t throw very hard, he has been successful so far. He is a candidate to go to the bullpen if Cliff Lee and or Jeremy Sowers solve their issues.
John Lannan
Throws: Left
2007 Role: Couple of Starts
2008 Role: Triple-A
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
An 11th round pick in 2005, Lannan has added some MPH to his fastball to go with some other good pitches. His fastball now touches 90 MPH. He did very well at three levels before he was shutdown. He’s a soft-tossing lefty, but a couple of them have had long careers.
Tim Lincecum
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Starter
2008 Role: #3 Starter
Career: Ace Starter
Classification: Blue Chip
Let me see. 100 MPH fastball? Check! Nasty Curveball? Check! Improving change up? Check! Throw in a hard slider for good measure? Check! The only knock on Lincecum is that he is considered small at six-foot-zero. Whatever.
Jesse Litsch
Throws: Right
2007 Role: Half Season Starter
2008 Role: #4 Starter
Career: Starting Pitcher
Classification: Prospect
He may not have the blazing stuff, but he knows what he is and makes the most of it. Litsch has a four-seam that hits 92 MPH, a two-seamer, change, curve and slider. He can throw all of them for strikes. He has excellent composure. He knows that he’s not a strikeout pitcher, so he just tries to make sure no one hits him hard. He’s a work horse in the making.
Starter Ranking
Grade A
Tim Lincecum
Yovani Gallardo
Phil Hughes
Ubaldo Jimenez
Grade B
Homer Bailey
Jair Jurrjens
Kyle Kendrick
Jesse Litsch
John Danks
Ryan Feierabend
Grade C
Kason Gabbard
Aaron Laffey
Matt Albers
Matt Chico
Kei Igawa
Dallas Braden
Billy Buckner
Tyler Clippard
J.D. Durbin
John Lannan
Grade D
Joel Hanrahan
Daniel Barone
Matt DeSalvo
Innings
Brian Burres
Justin Germano
JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series. In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship. He is in his second season in the Tout Wars mixed league.