I told you last week that I was going to look at outfielders. After seeing how many there are I decided to break them down into center fielders and corner outfielders. Why that designation? My home league uses the special outfield rules. A center fielder only player can play both left and right at the same defensive rating as center. A left or right field only can play center at a -1 penalty to range, but the opposite field at the same range rating.
Because of that rule, I have traditionally separated center fielders from corner outfielders. It is a great way of ensuring that I have a two in left and right. Now, on to the players.
John Anderson
2007 Role: Pinch Hitter / Pinch Runner
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(+1), cf-3, rf-3
2008 Role: #4 or #5 Outfielder
Career: #4 or #5 Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
Josh Anderson is a fantasy darling because he can steal bases. Unfortunately, he doesn’t do much else, so he makes a poor Strat-O-Matic player. He has no power, doesn’t get on base, and makes some bad jumps. The Astros traded for Michael Bourn who is just like Anderson except he gets on base. He did hit when he was called up, so he has a nice backup card. He rates a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale for speed, so I think he’ll get a 1-16 or 1-17 speed ratings. He didn’t steal, so his stolen base ratings will be poor.
Michael Bourn
2007 Role: Backup Outfielder / Pinch Runner
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(0), cf-2, rf-2
2008 Role: Starting Center Fielder
Career: Starting Center Fielder
Classification: Blue Chip Prospect
Michael Bourn was traded to the Astros to start in center field and lead-off. That means that Hunter Pence will move to left field. Speed is Bourn’s specialty, making him an ideal lead-off hitter candidate next year. He lacks power but has some patience. What he does is get good wood on the ball and spray liners all over the field, so I think he’ll hit for average. He’s been compared to Juan Pierre except with a stronger arm and better on-base skills. Who wouldn’t want that?
Alejandro De Aza
2007 Role: Defensive Replacement / Pinch Runner
Probable Defensive Rating: cf-2(+1)
2008 Role: Starting Center Fielder
Career: #4 Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
De Aza was the surprise of the spring when he won the centerfield job for the Marlins. He wasn’t even listed in Baseball America’s Top 30 Prospects. He started off the season hitting well, so he quickly became a fantasy darling due to his speed. He badly hurt his ankle. When he returned from the injury he cooled off. The Marlins are looking for a replacement. If they find one, he will likely return to the minors. As the available free agents will be expensive, the Marlins might decide to stick with him. I’m going to assume that they will replace him.
Elijah Dukes
2007 Role: Starting Centerfielder vs. Left-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: cf-3(-1)
2008 Role: ???
Career: ???
Classification: ???
If you don’t know the story of Elijah Dukes, then you haven’t been paying attention. Basically Dukes is a five category stud in the mold of Eric Davis. Unfortunately, maturity rates a 10 on the scouting 20-80 scale. Take Albert Belle’s and Milton Bradley’s personalities, stick them in a barrel of angst and despair and let them ferment for a couple of years. He’s been seeing a counselor at the same time he’s been meeting his probation officer and there seems to be some progress. We will have to see. Tampa Bay is looking to trade him, but they won’t get good value so they are stuck with him for now. Fortunately, we Strat players don’t have to deal with personalities.
Jacob Ellsbury
2007 .Role: #5 Outfielder
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(+1), cf-2, rf-2
2008 Role: Starting Left or Center Fielder
Career: Starting Center Fielder
Classification: Blue Chip Prospect
Ellsbury is proof that the Red Sox know something that other teams don’t. Both Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia have excellent hand-eye coordination. That bat control means good average even though they don’t have much power. Ellsbury has the potential to be a cf-1, although he’ll be lucky to have a 0 arm. The Red Sox are looking to trade CoCo Crisp to make room for Ellsbury.
Josh Hamilton
2007 Role: Platoon Centerfielder vs. Right-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(-1), cf-3, rf-2
2008 Role: Starting Centerfield
Career: Starting Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
Hamilton has had his share of demons to fight. The Reds took a chance using their Rule 5 pick to grab him and put him out in centerfield. He is only 26, so you can still get five good years out of him. Hamilton played great until he got hurt. Card wise, he needs to be platooned against left-handers, but that is easy to do. I do not know what his future holds. He was the #1 overall prospect at one time. The question is can he fight the addition, because that never goes away.
Cameron Maybin
2007 Role: Triple-A
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(-1), cf-3
2008 Role: Double-A
Career: Center or Right fielder
Classification: Prospect
I saw Maybin in the Arizona Fall League. He suffered from a strained shoulder and was shut down. He is the real deal. Five tools, refined, nearly ready. The question is where will he play? His arm is very good, certainly better than Curtis Granderson so it is possible that Granderson could be moved to left. On the other hand, it is good enough for right field as well, so if Granderson has entrenched himself in center, then it maybe right field for Maybin. What I can say is that he’ll be in Triple-A next year, so it will take a year or two before you get to play him.
Nyjer Morgan
2007 Role: Defensive Replacement / Pinch Hitter / Pinch Runner
Probable Defensive Rating: cf-3(+1)
2008 Role: Possible Starting Centerfielder
Career: #4 Outfielder
Classification: Non-Prospect
The difference between a prospect and a non-prospect is a fine line. Morgan hit well enough and might get the starting job in center out of spring training, but he won’t keep it long. Andrew McCutchen is just around the corner. He has good speed and defense, but no power. He might give you some at-bats in the 2009 set before disappearing.
David Murphy
2007 Role: Pinch Hitter
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-3(+1), cf-4, rf-3
2008 Role: #4 Outfielder, Possible Starting Centerfielder
Career: #4 Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
Expected to be the starting centerfielder for Boston, David Murphy took a little longer than expected to be ready. He was traded to Texas and hit so well that Ron Washington has considered him for the starting centerfield job next year. He has a sneaky bat. There is power there, but he swings for liners. If he changes his approach, he could provide some unexpected power. That makes him a pretty sweet mid-round pick.
Jerry Owens
2007 Role: Starting Centerfielder
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(+2), cf-3
2008 Role: Fallback Starting Centerfielder
Career: #4 Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
Jerry Owens got the job when Brian Anderson failed to hit and Darren Erstad and Scott Podsednik were hurt. Initially he hit very well, but a late season slump dropped him to a .265 hitter. He’s got speed and good range but no power and a weak arm. He’s another fallback starter. The White Sox are looking for help, if they don’t get any then Owens will start.
Hunter Pence
2007 Role: Starting Centerfielder
Probable Defensive Rating: cf-3(+1)
2008 Role: Starting Leftfielder
Career: Starting Leftfielder
Classification: Blue Chip Prospect
Hunter Pence is completely unorthodox in all that he does. He bats funny. He runs funny. He throws funny. But, it works for him. He chokes up on the bat, but still hit 17 home runs. What he does more than anything else is come to play. He is a spark plug. I’m not sure what Hal is going to do with him defensively. With the trade for Michael Bourn, Pence moves to left, but he’ll get a couple of games in center next year and will get the same rating he gets this year.
Felix Pie
2007 Role: Triple-A
Probable Defensive Rating: lf-2(+1), cf-3
2008 Role: Possible Starting Centerfielder
Career: Starting Centerfielder
Classification: Prospect
Evidently Felix Pie still wasn’t ready, because they never gave him a chance. The best defensive centerfielder, Jacque Jones kept going out there. Pie only hit .362 in Triple-A at the age of 22. I almost refuse to speculate how they are going to use him. They did trade Jones, but the Cubs are in the free agent hunt as well.
Centerfield Analysis
Centerfield is very deep this year. Six very good prospects there. Even if other needs keep you from going for some of the obvious candidates, there are a couple of guys with potential starting jobs.
Rating them is a bit complicated. Cameron Maybin, one of the better overall prospects, will get downgraded because he is one of the few players who doesn’t have a starting job right now. He is sure to go to Double or Triple-A. What I’m going to do is list him twice. The first listing is thinking long term, the second is thinking in the short term.
Then you have the Elijah Dukes question. I’m going to grade him a C (Platoon Player) because the Devil Rays are hoping to make him their #4 outfielder. If he gets his head on straight, he could easily move up the rankings.
Centerfielder Ranking
Grade A
Cameron Maybin (Long-Term)
Hunter Pence
Jacob Ellsbury
Josh Hamilton
Cameron Maybin (Short-Term)
Grade B
Michael Bourn
Felix Pie
David Murphy
Grade B- (Fallbacks)
Morgan Nyjer
Jerry Owens
Alejandro De Aza
Grade C
Elijah Dukes
Josh Anderson
Next week I'll be looking at left and right fielders.
JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series. In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship. He is in his second season in the Tout Wars mixed league.