Second Base Edition
Second Base used to be where one would look to find a defensively inclined player who could notch a few stolen bases and not otherwise hurt your fantasy team. Times have certainly changed. Look no further than Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, and Ian Kinsler for proof of the paradigm shift up-the-middle. This edition of the Report will feature two up-and-coming second base prospects who are worthy of your attention entering next season. Since Matt Antonelli, second base uber-prospect for the San Diego Padres, was previously featured, we will be examining German Duran and Eric Young, Jr. this week.
German Duran (Texas)
If you favor obscure players who may develop into major league all-stars, look no further than German Duran, a 5’10, 22 year-old second basemen hailing from Zacatenas, Mexico. Coming out of college Duran was not considered talented enough to draft in the first five rounds (he went in the 6th), but his minor league statistic lines show that scouts may have undervalued him. In fact, Duran performed better in Single A and Double AA than current all-star caliber second base options such as Jeff Kent and Chase Utley.
Duran first showed promise in 2006 in high A ball. In 457 at bats, he had a .284 batting average and a .331 OBP%. He also showed flashes of power, smacking 13 homers and 31 doubles, while driving in 72 runs. In addition to his burgeoning power, Duran offers some speed. He attempted 24 steals (but was only successful on 15 of those attempts) and legged out two triples.
Duran’ power and batting average numbers significantly increased while at double AA in 2007. There, he pounded 22 homers, 32 doubles, and five triples in 480 at bats, good enough for a slugging percentage of .525. Duran also raised his batting average 16 points over 2006 to an even .300. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also improved over 2006, which shows that Duran had no trouble adjusting to the better pitching in double AA. In 2006 Duran had 35 walks and 89 k’s, but in 2007 he struck out only 77 times while managing 34 walks. Duran did not attempt as many steals in 2007, but his success rate improved significantly: he stole 11 bases in 13 attempts.
After his performance in 2007, the Rangers tapped Duran to play among the top prospects in the minors in the Arizona Fall League. Thus far Duran continues to hit the cover off the ball. In 64 AFL at bats, Duran is hitting .281 with 2 homers, 1 double, 1 triple, 11 rbi’s and 3 steals. Importantly, Duran’s plate discipline continues to improve; he has walked 11 times and struck out 14, good enough for a .385 OBP%.
Although Duran has seen more time at shortstop, most scouts believe he is a better fit at second base, or even as a Ryan Freel type utility man (Duran’s seen time at SS, 2B, 3B and the outfield). If German Duran continues to hit like he did in 2007 he’ll have no trouble finding a regular job on a major league roster at any of his qualified positions. From a fantasy baseball perspective, Duran projects to be a potentially cheap source of power at a position where real power is typically lacking, and could swipe more than a few bags along the way.
Eric Young, Jr. (Colorado)
Standing in at a diminutive 5’9 and weighing just 180 lbs, this 887th overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft can flat out steal bases. EY is the son of Eric Young, Sr. former second baseman for the Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers, etc. Like his father, Young, Jr. has some pop, and is an outstanding base-runner.
In his first year of professional baseball at just 19 years of age, Young stole 14 bases in an 87 at-bat audition. At 20 years of age the following season, Young swiped 25 bags in 219 at-bats while hitting 3 homers and batting .301/.404/.438/.842. In 2006, EY hit 5 homers, notched 28 doubles, 6 triples and stole an astonishing 87 bases in 482 at-bats. Showing improving power while swinging more freely, in 2007 Young hit 8 homers, smacked 29 doubles, 11 triples and swiped a jaw-dropping 73 bags.
Indeed, Eric Young, Jr. can run the bases. In an era where the stolen base is falling out of vogue in favor of the long-ball, speedsters like Eric Young have increasing value. There are fewer and fewer players that fantasy team owners can rely upon for stolen bases. Jose Reyes, Juan Pierre, Ichiro Suzuki, Willie “Mays-Hayes” Tavares, and Dave Roberts are among the few remaining names on the ever-shrinking endangered list. Moreover, Young’s doubles, triples, and homers indicate that as he matures double digit homers are within the realm of possibility.
What about his defensive ability? Eric Young has shown defensive improvement in each of the past two seasons. In 2007, Young turned more double plays, posted more assists, and had a greater fielding percentage with fewer errors than the previous season. All signs that Young can cut it defensively on a major league diamond.
With continued work with the glove, an improved eye at the plate, and developing extra-base power, Eric Young, Jr. could mature into a highly sought-after major league second baseman. We think that if EY makes necessary adjustments, he could find himself starting at second base for Colorado by 2010. If and when Young, Jr. gets a call to the majors, you will be wise to snatch him up before less astute managers take notice. As you know, second basemen with the potential to reach double digit homers and 40+ steals are rare and therefore extremely valuable.
Even though German Duran and Eric Young, Jr. are different breeds of offensive second basemen, both players are premier talents that deservedly share the spotlight in this edition of Minor-ity Report. German Duran’s defensive versatility coupled with his blossoming bat make him a player worth watching in 2008 and beyond. Eric Young, Jr. could arrive on the scene in or around 2010, and become a regular run-producer and base-stealer atop a Colorado Rockies lineup that is already in need of a bonafide leadoff hitter and table-setter.