I'm sorry this article is late. I'm in Arizona for the Fall League and I've been so busy that I haven't had an hour to sit down and write. The discussion here is always very interesting. It is good to meet other Strat-O-Matic players at an event for Roto players. We are slowly taking over the house here.
This week we are going to look at third base. It seems to be a very strong position this year with a couple of Blue Chip Prospects.
Ryan Braun
2007 Role: Designated Hitter
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-5
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Third Baseman, Eventual First Baseman or Left Fielder
Classification: Blue-Chip
Ryan Braun is without a doubt one of the most interesting consensus #1 overall pick since I took up this hobby. As a 22-year old, he was the darling of the 2006 Arizona Fall League. Every time he swung the bat, all the scouts behind home plate would hoot-n-holler like kids at the Fourth of July. His swing was described as perfect. The Brewers had no choice but to call him up for he was crushing the ball in Triple-A. He continued to destroy Major League pitching and should be a shoe-in for NL Rookie of the Year. He has the bat on par with A-Rod and Albert Pujols. There is one problem. He can't catch or throw. The Brewers already have Prince Fielder at first, so you can't hide him there. Right now the Brewers are cursing that they volunteered to leave the American League and the Designated Hitter.
The new Bill James Guide, or the Red Book as it is commonly called, has a new statistic in it called Plus/Minus. Basically, Baseball Information Services looks at video of every single defensive play and determines if the average player would have made a given play. If they determine that the average player wouldn't make the play but that player did, that player gets one point. If the average player would make it and that player didn't, he gets minus one point. Braun's score was a -44, the worst in the Major Leagues for any position including shortstop. He achieved this amazing record despite playing in only 113 games. Plus/Minus may be the one defensive statistic that may correlate to Strat-O-Matic range ratings. As I interpret it, a 5 might not be bad enough. Braun may require a 3b-6.
On the other hand, he can hit. The Brewers have another good hitting outfielder, Matt LaPorta who can also hit and isn't too far off so moving him to the outfield may not be an option.
So there you have it. If you need a designated hitter, there will be few hitting cards as sweet as Braun, and his long term value is just as sweet. If you need to play him at third... Well, good luck.
Brian Buscher
2007 Role: Triple-A
Probable Defensive Rating: 2b-3
2008 Role: Possible Starting Third Baseman
Career: Journeyman Third Baseman
Classification: Non-Prospect
A Rule 5 pick, Brian Buscher became the starting third baseman when the Twins grew wary of Nick Punto. He spent part of three seasons in Double-A and finally broke out, but he was much older than his competition. He ended up with a nasty leg infection that kept him out. We will have to see if he gets the job out of spring training. If he does, I suspect that he'll be a .260 with 10 home runs and a .330 on-base percentage.
Josh Fields
2007 Role: Platoon vs. Left-handed pitching.
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-4
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman or Left Fielder
Career: Starting Outfielder
Classification: Prospect
Josh Fields became the starting third baseman when Joe Crede finally conceded to his injury and had surgery. Originally, the talk was that Crede was going to be let go at the end of the season, but the White Sox have changed their tune. They have come to appreciate the defense that Crede brought to the game. Josh is not the same. So, Fields has been working on playing the outfield in the Instructional League while the White Sox hope that Crede is healthy enough to play and isn't too pissed off at almost being discarded.
Alex Gordon
2007 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-3
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Third Baseman
Classification: Blue-Chip
The #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft and the anticipated Rookie of the Year for 2006, Alex Gordon discovered that the Major Leagues was just a little tougher than he expected. Gordon struggled and hit only .246 with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He is probably the best overall rookie third baseman. He won't hit like Braun, but he's not the defensive liability that Braun is right now. In due time I think that he will be a solid contributer in both on-base, power and stolen bases and level off at a 3b-2. Right now, he has the at-bats to play him in a starting role. It may take a couple of years, however.
Jack Hannahan
2007 Role: Platoon vs. Left-handed Pitching
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-4
2008 Role: Triple-A
Career: Backup Third Baseman
Classification: Non-Prospect
I should like Jack Hannahan. He does the one thing that is most important in Strat, gets on base. He is .278 with a .369 batting average and walked 21 times in 144 at-bats. The problem was that he hit over .400 against left-handers and didn't hit well against right-handers. Despite that, he still had a .351 on-base against right-handers. So, he's going to have a card with a column of walks. Wonderful. I suppose there is a chance that the A's keep him on the roster to platoon with Eric Chavez. Billy Beane played Strat, so if he looks at the new set, he'll come to that conclusion. Still, he is too old and Chavez is vastly superior to him assuming that Chavez is healthy.
Akinori Iwamura
2007 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-2
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Second Baseman
Classification: Veteran
Although he missed some time due to an injury, Akinori Iwamura is a solid third baseman who has about 130 games of usage. His card is stronger against left-handers, but he is still playable if you don't have anyone else. The disadvantage of drafting Japanese players is that they are older. According to Japanese Baseball Rules, they need enough service time to be eligible for unrestricted free agency. Iwamura is 28. While they may be older, they are the best in their class, so you may be able to keep them on your roster for five years. They are a quality investment for your draft picks.
Iwamura was a power hitter in Japan. He didn't display the same power in America, but the on-base is good. The Devil Ray plan to move him to second base next year. If he can adjust to the change, he will be an above average second baseman.
Andy LaRoche
2007 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-3
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Third Baseman
Classification: Prospect
Normally when a 23-year-old hits .309 in Triple-A with 18 home runs and a near .400 on-base, that player would sky-rocket to the top of the prospect charts. In Andy LaRoche's case, that is not happening. He was given a couple of chances for the job, but struggled. With A-Rod on the free agent market, the Dodgers in need of a proven third baseman, and the fact that the Dodgers are one of the few teams that can afford the $1 billion contract it will take to have A-Rod. Until A-Rod is signed, LaRoche's value drops. Personally, I think they should just give him the job like the Royals did with Alex Gordon.
Travis Metcalf
2007 Role: Platoon Third Baseman
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-4
2008 Role: Backup Third Baseman
Career: Minor League Third Baseman
Classification: Non-Prospect
Metcalf wasn't on the prospect radar, but received an opportunity when Hank Blalock was hurt. He played rather well so he may be a late bloomer. There is some chance that he might stay in the Majors to platoon with Blalock. That is what I would do if I were Texas, but it is completely dependent upon Metcalf's ability to play other positions. We're going to have to wait and see that the Rangers intend to do with him to decide his value. Right now, I wouldn't draft him.
Mark Reynolds
2007 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-3
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Third Baseman
Classification: Prospect
Another example of a player taking advantage of an injury. Chad Tracy goes down and Mark Reynolds fills in well. The Diamondbacks are suffering from a problem that most Major League teams wish they could have. The Diamondbacks have too many prospects and not enough positions for everyone. Someone is going to get traded. I know they would rather trade Tracy, as he is more expensive, but Reynolds may be the one who ends up getting traded. His youth means more value. His card will be very balanced and useful. He played third well, but I don't think well enough for a 2. It is possible that he might get a 2 in the future.
Ian Stewart
2007 Role: Minor Leagues
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-4
2008 Role: Triple-A
Career: Starting Left Fielder
Classification: Prospect
A #1 draft pick in 2003, Ian Stewart's path to the Major Leagues with the Rockies is blocked. Neither Atkins or Helton are going anywhere. Defensively, Stewart's glove is average but his arm is a plus. I think that will give him the 3 in the future if he stays in that position. I don't think he will. Stewart has already been taking flyballs in left field, so I think a position change is in the works. That is always the trouble with third baseman. So many prospect third baseman more to different positions it seems to me. Drafting Stewart is a long term pick.
Brandon Wood
2007 Role: Minor Leagues
Probable Defensive Rating: 3b-3
2008 Role: Starting Third Baseman
Career: Starting Third Baseman
Classification: Blue-Chip
Ah yes, we start with someone I can talk an hour about and we end with someone I can talk an hour about. Brandon Wood has been in the top of the prospect charts for a while now. I saw him in the Fall League a couple of years ago, and he was a monster. He grades out a 70 for power. He destroyed Single-A pitching, hitting 43 home runs two years ago. Alas, he has not done as well as he moved up through the minors. You see, Wood cannot hit the breaking stuff. The Angels do not know what to do with him, either. He started as a shortstop, but as that position is filled, he moved to third. The Angels were playing utility players at third while Figgins was hurt. Wood was called up a few times, but just sat on the bench. While at the Fall League, I was talking with my friend, Rodger who lives in Anaheim and has more experience playing Strat than I do. He said that the Angels did give him some opportunities, and he didn't do anything with them. I can't tell by the game logs, but I can see that when he did start he put up a big 0-for. Again the Angels are one of the few teams that can afford A-Rod and have a need in that position. Wood is someone you are going to have to watch. I believe he will have a career, but it may take a couple of years for it to happen.
Third Base Analysis
What a week. I started the week believing that third base was the strongest of all positions. Now that I looked at them, I'm not so sure. All three of the Blue-Chip players, Wood, Braun and Gordon all have major flaws. Gordon struggled. Braun can't field. Wood can't hit the curve.
It may be that the best option ends up being Mark Reynolds as he is proven and has a job. Ranking this position is extra hard as the rank depends upon your needs. If you want a third baseman who is a prospect and can help you now, Reynolds is your man. If you are looking for a DH then obviously, Braun is your man. Long term, I think Gordon may be your man. Wood could singlehandedly change the dynamic if he moves back to short and learns to hit the curve ball.
If you are looking for immediate help, both Reynolds and Iwamura will have good cards, good range ratings and are lower risk picks.
Third Base Rankings
Grade-A
1.) Ryan Braun
2.) Alex Gordon
3.) Brandon Wood
Grade-B
4.) Mark Reynolds
5.) Akinori Iwamura
6.) Josh Fields
7.) Andy LaRoche
8.) Ian Stewart
Grade-C
9.) Brian Buscher
10.) Jack Hannahan
11.) Travis Metcalf
JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series. In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship. He is in his second season in the Tout Wars mixed league.