Welcome back to the Report. At the report, we give readers insight into prospects rising through the ranks of the minor leagues that display singular potential. As in the previous edition, this installment of Minor-ity Report will examine two pitchers that may be destined for big things in the big leagues.
1. Jacob McGee. This will seem like deja vu, but if you thought that Scott Kazmir and David Price were the only fire-balling southpaws the Devil Rays have in their armamentarium, you would be wrong. Let us introduce you to Jacob McGee. At 6’3 and 190 lbs, the 21 year old McGee concluded his 2007 season in AA. Since having foregone college to begin a professional baseball career at a mere 17 years of age, Jake McGee has gone in only one direction - forward.
With a fastball that sits in the low 90’s, a curveball, circle change-up, and a slider, McGee has an arsenal that draws comparisons to Tom Glavine. His Achilles heel has always been controlling his secondary pitches. With early command issues, McGee posted 5.9, 3.5, and then regressed back to 5.8 walks per 9 innings pitched from 2004 to 2006, respectively. Jake began 2007 by allowing only 39 free passes in 116.2 IP in single A, but then regressed again to allowing 13 BB in 23 IP after a promotion to double A.
Walking through his seasons in the minor leagues, thus far, McGee has done everything to justify his fifth round selection by Tampa Bay in 2004. In 2005, McGee posted 1.18 K/IP in 76.2 innings pitched. In 134 innings thrown, JM averaged 1.28 K/IP the following season in 2006. Then, in 2007, McGee posted a respectable 1.25 K/IP. These figures all point to pitching dominance. The sabremetric folks at Baseball Prospectus use a measure they call “stuff” to gauge a pitcher’s dominance relative to the norm. Since 2004, quantum leaps in dominance (or, if you prefer, ”stuff”) point to McGee’s maturation and adjustment to opposing batters.
We believe that the major hurdles to Jacob McGee will encounter on his road to major league stardom will be improving command of his secondary pitches, and staying healthy. If McGee is able to do both, then there is no telling how high his ceiling is as a starting pitcher. Either way, we’d advise fantasy baseball aficionados to keep a close watch on Jacob McGee in 2008. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!
2. Brandon Hynick is not the typical pitching talent that we tout. This 6-3, 2006 8th round draft pick is a control specialist – not a flamethrower. Nonetheless, his core statistics, combined with impressive composite scouting reports, indicate Hynick’s stock is on the rise and that he may be someone to watch in the upcoming season.
Scouts rave about Hynick’s craftiness, maturity and overall potential. His pitching coach in Single A explained, “He reminds me of Catfish Hunter. "He can paint. He can go in. He can go out. He can change speeds. He makes the hitter feel so uncomfortable, because he never throws the same speed twice." With pinpoint control and a fastball reaching a 92 mph on the gun, Hynick offers a lot to be excited about. In fact, after signing Hynick out of the draft, scouts proclaimed that the Rockies had notched a third-round talent in the eighth round.
Hynick’s statistics are illustrative of his talent. Core indicators such as his hits to innings pitched, and walks to innings pitched are outstanding. We view it as a relative imperative that any minor league talent have fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. This typically shows that the pitcher has good “stuff” and that batters have a difficult time getting on base. Equally important is walks to innings pitched. There have been many pitchers who have great stuff, but never strung together a great career because they walked a ton of batters (see Matt Clement and Victor Zambrano). Although our endorsement of Hynick is not meant to downplay the importance of K’s in measuring “stuff,” but it is clear that if a pitcher does not allow very many hits or walks, then there is nobody on base to score. The end result is a sparkling era, whip, and a high number of wins – the perfect trifecta.
In rookie ball in 2006, Hynick tossed 64 innings, allowing only 54 hits and an unreal 8 walks. Even his strikeout numbers were stellar with 70 k’s – more than one per inning pitched. The end total was a 2.11 earned run average and a 0.77 whip.
Hynick continued to impress this past season in high A ball. While there, he racked up a league-leading 182 innings pitched, let up a stingy 170 hits, and a mere 31 walks. Hynick also whiffed a modest 136 batters.
Hynick is now on the fast track, likely earmarked for AA entering 2008. With continued success, Brandon Hynick could see major league action by mid-2009 or 2010. At 22 years old and boasting poise and control that drive scouts wild, Hynick should be on your furtive list of players that could blossom into the next Fausto Carmona.
Jacob McGee and Brandon Hynick are stand-outs at the minor league level, and are deserving of your attention in 2008, as they make another bid for a call to the bigs. Both appear to be on the fast-track to the show, and with time to mature both physically and mentally, there is no telling how high these stars could rise.