This week I’m going to be looking at first basemen. As I described in my catcher article last week, I’m going through the prospects one position at a time just like I’ve done for years. This time, however, I’m doing it blog style, so it may seem like I’m rambling, because I am. I’m not taking a peak ahead. I’m just writing what I see. In the end I’ll have a draft list.
Daric Barton
2007 Role: Goon Card
Probable Defensive Rating: 1b-4
2008 Role: Starting First Baseman / Designated Hitter
Career: Designated Hitter
Classification: Prospect
Daric Barton was the #1 prospect in Lawr Michaels’ Top 250 Prospects two years ago. Lawr’s tool is great at picking out players before they end up on everyone else’s list. A former catcher, Barton can hit. He has an OPS over 1.000 against both left and right handers. There are some questions whether he will hit for power. He also runs like a catcher. The A’s have openings at first base and DH. I think they see Barton more as a DH which will lower his value slightly from a Strat prospective.
Shelly Duncan
2007 Role: Pinch Hitter v. Left-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: 1b-4 / lf-4(+1) / rf-4(+1)
2008 Role: Minor Leagues
Career: You Saw It
Classification: No Draft
With all the injuries at first base, the Yankees brought up Duncan to see what he could do. He has major league power but does not hit for average. He showed enough that he could handle a Major League job in a Ross Gload sort of way, a little outfield and a little first base. As long as he is a Yankee, they will sign a veteran for that job over him.
Garrett Jones
2007 Role: Unplayable
Probable Defensive Rating: 1b-4
2008 Role: Possible DH
Career: Bench Player, Possible Starting DH
Classification: Non-Prospect
There isn’t much difference between Jones and Duncan except that Jones is a year younger and doesn’t play for the Yankees. Because of that, it is possible that he could make the team as a starting designated hitter. He has the best power in the farm system and the Twins could use some power. He’s someone to monitor in spring training and see what the Twins do with him. Even if he does have a good chance at the job, he’s be a late round speculation pick.
Steve Pearce
2007 Role: Pinch Hitter v. Left-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: 1b-3 / rf-4(+2)
2008 Role: Bench / Minor Leagues
Career: Starter
Classification: Prospect
Pearce hit a combined 31 homeruns between High-A and Triple-A this year and kept on hitting at the Major League level. He was pretty old for High-A, but hit Double-A and Triple-A numbers were very good. He even stole 14 bases. At the Major League level, he didn’t hit any homeruns, but he did hit the ball hard. With Bay, Nady, and LaRoche I can’t see him getting much playing time. He was a first baseman in the minors and only played the outfield for the first time this year. I suspect that he’ll convert to outfield next year and make the team at some point next year.
Joey Votto
2007 Role: Goon Card vs. Right-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: 1b-5
2008 Role: Starting First Baseman
Career: Starting First Baseman
Classification: Prospect
A second round pick in 2002, Votto has Major League power. He looked very good in his September call-up. The job is available for him. He does have some weaknesses. He strikes out a lot. He had trouble with left-handed pitching. He is a converted catcher, and he isn’t the smoothest first baseman. He will take a walk. Basically, he’s a 24 year-old Jimmy Thome. I happen to like Jimmy Thome’s card. Strikeouts stink. I’d rather have flyouts, but I’ll take strikeouts if it means no gbA’s.
First Base Overview
If you are looking for some immediate help at first base, you will need to make a trade instead of looking at the draft. You have three prospects. One has a sure job (Votto). One probably has a job (Barton). One will have a job in the future (Pearse). That is how I’m going to rank them. Not much here, which is a concern if you are looking for help in this area.
First Base Ranking
Grade A
1.) Joey Votto
2.) Daric Barton
Grade B
3.) Steve Pearse
Grade C
4.) Garrett Jones
Next week I attack second baseman.