One of the little projects I’ve been doing is attacking my giant box of disks. I have a file folder box filled to the top with floppy disks, Zip disks, and Jazz drive disks. Most of them are floppies and few of them are labeled. On one I found the 1991 Major League statistics in Lotus 1-2-3 format. The reason that one is interesting is that I typed those in by hand.
Back then I didn’t have access to the Internet. It didn’t matter. I didn’t know what the Internet was. All I had was my old 286 with a 40 GB hard drive and 1 MB of RAM. I would get a copy of the final statistics in the USA Today and type them in by hand. I would let Lotus 1-2-3 calculate Batting Average which I would use to cross-reference my data to make sure I typed it in correctly.
What was the most fascinating about what I did were the notes I left. While I may have formalized the process I go through to rank new cards, the principles were certainly there.
I ask a series of questions. How can I use this player’s card if I draft him? What type of role will he have next year? What is his career going to look like when he retires?
This year, I’ve decided to take you along on that process. It is going to be a bit of a bumpy ride. I may take a couple of wrong turns along the way. In the end, I will have a draft list ranked in order. As I did back in 1991, I start with Catchers.
Jesus Flores
2007 Role: Platoon v. Left-handers / Defensive Replacement
Probable Defensive Rating: c-3(-1)
2008 Role: Minor Leagues?
Career: Starting Catcher
Classification: Prospect (2009)
A Rule V draft pick, the Nationals needed to keep Flores on the Major League Roster all season in order to keep him. They did, and in many ways that is too bad. He missed a year of development sitting on the bench. Flores has good power for a catcher, but he also is a good defensively. The Nationals are trying to get him as much playing time during the winter to make up for him not playing this year. He’ll go to the Arizona Fall League and probably play in Winter Ball as well. I’m not sure what the Nationals will do with him next year. I suspect that he’ll spend the year in Triple-A and be on the team in 2009.
Chris Heintz
2007 Role: None
Probable Defensive Rating: c-4(+2)
2008 Role: Minor Leagues
Career: You Saw It
Classification: No Draft
A 31-year-old organizational catcher, Heintz made the Major League roster for the third time in his career due to injuries. That is the only way he’ll get at-bats. He hit .275 with no power in Triple-A.
J.R. House
2007 Role: Goon Card v. Right Handers
Probable Defensive Rating: c-4(+1), 1b-5, 3b-5
2008 Role: Backup Catcher Candidate
Career: Backup
Classification: Goon Card
There has been no question that House can hit. His catcher skills and injuries have held him back. He got some time on the Major League roster and pounded right-handers with a 1.053 OPS, making him a goon card candidate. There was some talk of him fighting for the backup catcher job in Baltimore, but they outrighted him to Triple-A in October. With only 38 at-bats he might not be carded.
Miguel Montero
2007 Role: Backup Catcher
Probable Defensive Rating: c-4(+1)
2008 Role: Catcher Platoon
Career: Starter
Classification: Prospect
Montero is a pretty good hitting catcher with some power. He didn’t hit for average, but did hit 10 home runs in 214 at-bats. He walked 20 times as well, so his walks are nearly 10% of his at-bats. Defensively, he has an average arm and quick release. You are looking at a +1 to 0 arm. The Diamondbacks see him as their starting catcher, so he’ll be on the roster in 2008, but I expect him to only play about four games a week. Card wise, he hit for average against LH with no power and no average but power against RH making his card pretty useless you are just looking for at-bats.
Mike Rabelo
2007 Role: Backup Catcher
Probable Defensive Rating: 3(+1)
2008 Role: Minor Leagues
Career: Journeyman Triple-A Catcher
Classification: No Draft
Rabelo made the team when Vance Wilson went out for the season. He did an acceptable job backing up Ivan Rodriguez. Wilson will be ready for spring training, so Rabelo will return to Triple-A and wait for a phone call. He is a good defensive catcher with little pop and no speed.
Guillermo Rodriguez
2007 Role: Backup Catcher
Probable Defensive Rating: 4(0)
2008 Role: Possible Backup Catcher
Career: Journeyman Triple-A Catcher
Classification: Non-Prospect
Rodriguez finally made a Major League roster after spending eleven seasons in the minors. Normally I toss out 29-year-old players with limited at-bats as a matter of principle. I’ll make an exception for Rodriguez for two reasons. First, the Giants are in the middle of the youth movement and Rodriguez has caught all the young pitchers. Second of all, Rodriguez hit extremely well in the clutch. Little things like that are the difference between Triple-A and a backup job. Based upon that, there is good chance that he will get a second card. Now, Bengie Molina gets hurt and you can see a reasonable scenario where Rodriguez gets a sizable at-bat card in the future. This makes him an interesting late draft option.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
2007 Role: Platoon v. Right-handers CA/1B
Probable Defensive Rating: c-4(+1), 1b-5
2008 Role: Starting Catcher for the Texas Rangers
Career: Starting Catcher but probably moved to another position.
Classification: Blue Chip Prospect
The best catcher in the set and probably a first-round pick. (I don’t know. I haven’t looked that far. Like I said, this will be a bumpy ride.) He was used as a first baseman by both the Braves and the Rangers just to get his bat in the lineup, but he wasn’t very good defensively there. A wrist injury affected his swing in the minors and he has only recently returned to full strength. As a catcher, he is still a work in progress. He has a strong arm, but catch and release is too slow. He has been working on that as well as his pitch calling. His future value is completely dependent upon his ability to master his skills behind the plate. If he is moved to first base, he would be an average to below average first baseman due to a lack of range and an average first baseman bat. Hitting in Texas is good for him.
Geovany Soto
2007 Role: Goon Catcher
Probable Defensive Rating: c-3(0)
2008 Role: Backup Catcher
Career: Backup, Possible Starter
Classification: Prospect
Soto is a very interesting case. From a skills perspective, he has average to below average tools. The only thing he brings is a good batting eye. He exploded in Triple-A this year, hitting 26 homeruns in 385 at-bats at 24 years of age. With the catcher situation a mess in Chicago, he made the Major League roster and hit .389 with three homeruns in 58 at-bats. Soto was started over veteran Jason Kendall when the Cubs playoff chances were on the line. He has been seen as a backup until this year. What I’m concerned about is that if you draft him as a starter he might revert to a backup. Only time will tell.
Chris Stewart
2007 Role: Backup Catcher
Probable Defensive Rating: c-4(+1)
2008 Role: Minor League Catcher
Career: Journeyman Catcher
Classification: Non-Prospect
Stewart made the roster as the backup to Gerald Laird. He got one start a week until June when he was sent down. Texas acquired Adam Melhuse to replace him. With both Laird and Saltalamacchia on the roster, Stewart will sit in Triple-A. I expect him to be removed from the 40-man roster this winter.
Kurt Suzuki
2007 Role: Platoon v. Right-handers
Probable Defensive Rating: c-3(+1)
2008 Role: Starting Catcher
Career: Starting Catcher
Classification: Prospect
Suzuki became the starting catcher when Jason Kendall was traded. He is similar to Kendall in that his biggest tool is the X-Factor. He has had to work hard to get where he is now. He has average tools, but gets the most out of them. He did well enough as the starter that he’ll probably start again next year.
Curtis Thigpen
2007 Role: Not-Playable
Probable Defensive Rating: c-3(+2), 1b-4
2008 Role: Backup Catcher
Career: Backup Catcher
Classification: Non-Prospect
Thigpen best skill is his batting eye, although he didn’t show it at the Major League level. He has an average arm but is pretty good behind the plate range wise. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him a c-2 at some point. He also can play first, third and left, so he makes an ideal backup catcher. His lack of hitting means that I wouldn’t want him unless I’m in a really deep league.
Justin Towles
2007 Role: Goon Card
Probable Defensive Rating: c-3(-1)
2008 Role: Possible Starting Catcher
Career: Starting Catcher
Classification: Prospect
Towles is a five-tool catcher. That means that he can run. He has been compared to a young Jason Kendall, except with more power and better catcher skills. He could be the #1 catcher prospect in the set if it wasn’t for the fact that he keeps on getting hurt and missing precious experience building time. He will battle for the starting job in Houston next year.
Catcher Overview
There is some talent available in the 2007 set. What makes it interesting is that some of these prospects have goon cards, so while you might only be able to give them 50 at-bats, they will make the most of them. Saltalamacchia has a pretty good chance of being a star. I could see Justin Towles also becoming a star due to his good tools. Soto’s dramatic burst of power makes him an interesting prospect. Suzuki, Flores and Montero all have opportunities to be full-time starting catchers. Opportunity is everything. Thigpen and Rodriguez’s ceiling are limited to backup, but these both have good chances of getting a second card.
Catcher Rankings
Grade A
1.) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
2.) Justin Towles
Grade B
3.) Geovany Soto
4.) Miguel Montero
5.) Kurt Suzuki
6.) Jesus Flores
Grade C
7.) Curtis Thigpen
8.) Guillermo Rodriguez
Next week I look at first baseman.