Welcome to the Minor-ity Report – a new weekly column that will provide you with an edge over the competition in evaluating minor league talent. This column will focus on all areas of the minor leagues, from obscure Single A players not likely to hit the Bigs until 2010 to Triple A players on the cusp of stardom. Every level from Rookie Ball to the majors is designed to pare down the enumerable minor leaguers to a select group of uber-talented major league superstars. Rather then rely upon astrological signs or the lunar phase to prognosticate which players will rise like a phoenix from the depths of the Appalachian league, we will employ a careful statistical analysis, balanced with scouts’ opinions, to form a composite report on prospects we believe could become all-stars in the majors.
How do we evaluate a burgeoning talent from the low minors? We choose to focus our analysis on certain statistical categories. For batters, walk-to-strike out ratio, homeruns, batting average, and OPS are among the most important indicators. In addition, we acknowledge that a young batter’s doubles may begin to clear the wall with a little more muscle and maturity. In assessing pitchers, we look for total dominance. In part, dominance is indicated by striking out more than a batter per inning, letting up less than a hit per inning pitched, and yielding relatively few walks. Most pitchers we recommend will be dominant in all three areas. But other statistics like ERA and batting average against are also important indicators. Regardless of whether we are evaluating a hitter or a pitcher, a player’s age, rate of promotion through each level of the minors, and when the player was drafted also contribute to our overall appraisal. We believe that looking at all these factors as a whole will provide a best-guess for who will be the future fantasyball studs.
Coverage of players such as Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus may come in later features, but for our debut column, aptly titled “The Hidden Gem,” we have elected to focus on players that spent most of 2007 in Single A ball. To that end, here are some players who we believe merit watching as they continue their ascension to potential greatness:
Clayton Kershaw (P)
This 6’3 Texan left-hander pitched in rookie ball in 2006 after being drafted directly out high school by the L.A. Dodgers in the first round of the 2006 Amateur draft. The Dodgers valued Kershaw so much that they rewarded him with a whopping $2.3 million signing bonus. Not too bad considering most of Kershaw’s peers were probably flipping burgers or struggling with History 101.
Paying early dividends on that robust signing bonus, Clay “K” posted impressive numbers in a limited audition in 2006, featuring a 1.95 ERA and a stingy 0.89
WHIP, with 54 K’s to 5 walks in 37 innings pitched. Kershaw averaged 13.14 K/IP in 2006 and continued his success in 2007 with 12.39 K/IP and a 2.77 ERA to go along with a 1.25 WHIP in 122 Innings pitched. He held batters in Single A to a .203 BAA in 2007 and appears to be a dominant presence on the mound, even at the tender age of 21.
The only thing we found statistically off-putting was that as opposing batters exhibited more poise and skill, Kershaw increased his tendency toward pitching around them, leading to a higher rate of walks per innings pitched in each successive level of minor league play. Scouts note that Clay “K” has a fastball in the low-90’s with good control that can reach 96 mph when necessary, but sometimes struggles to throw strikes with his curveball and changeup. Nonetheless, scouts believe all three pitches are “plus pitches” and project Kershaw as a front-line starter. Indeed, Kershaw himself was quoted as saying, “I try to pattern myself after Johan Santana of the Twins.” We believe you Clay “K” – enough to recommend that fanballers keep a close eye on Kershaw’s 2008 progress on his road to the majors.
Fautino De Los Santos (P)
Like Clay Kershaw, the Chicago White Sox top pitching prospect and future ace right hander is a mere 21 years of age. Unlike Clay “K”, ‘Tino was not featured among the 900 prospects outlined in Baseball America’s top minor leaguers. De Los Santos dominated Single and Double A in 2007, his first year of professional baseball. De Los Santos posted a 2.65 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in 122 innings pitched. What made Fautino’s performance so unique is that during 122.1 innings, he allowed only 69 hits and 43 walks, yet struck out 153 batters.
All of these numbers suggest De Los Santos is something special. The huge differential in hits-to-innings-pitched, combined with outstanding strikeout numbers illustrate a superior level of talent that should propel De Los Santos through the minor leagues in a hurry. In fact, the White Sox already see a bright future in ‘Tino, as he was selected to pitch in the 2007 Futures Game. Marc Hulet of Baseball Analysts commented that ‘Tino, “who features a mid-90s fastball, slider, and change-up combination – is deserving of a promotion.” At 6’0 and with similar numbers, ‘Tino projects to become the next Roy Oswalt, barring the elbow and rotator cuff hurdles all young pitchers face.
Matt Antonelli (2B, 3B)
In just his second year of pro ball at 22 years old, San Diego Padres first round draft pick Matt Antonelli, posted 21 homers, 28 steals, and a .894 OPS with a .307/.404/.491 breakdown. More remarkable than his raw numbers was his plate patience at such a young age. Antonelli had a 53:58 BB:K ratio at Single A while maintaining a 30:36 BB:K ratio in AA. He hit for similar power and speed after making the jump to AA, and actually hit righties better than lefties, indicating a reduced risk of landing in a platoon role.
making the jump to AA, and actually hit righties better than lefties, indicating a reduced risk of landing in a platoon role.
Many insiders in the Padres organization believe that the parent club traded Josh Barfield and signed Marcus Giles in an effort to keep second base open for the hot-hitting and slick-stealing Antonelli. As a former first-round draft pick, great things are expected of Matt Antonelli and he could rise through the ranks quickly. Like many heavy hitting middle infielders, however, Antonelli needs to keep his fielding skills well-honed to avoid a position switch to the outfield, or risk becoming the dreaded utility infielder.
Zach Daeges (OF, 1B, 3B)
The Red Sox drafted this slugging, versatile outfielder in the 6th round of the 2006 Amateur draft and after early Tommy John surgery (in fall of 2006), Zach Daeges has impressed in his two years of pro ball. Although he was given a trial at first base and third base also, Daeges’ best defensive position appears to be corner outfield.
Defense, however, is not the strength of Daeges’ game. His bat is what has earned ZD early attention. In 198 at-bats in 2006, Daeges hit 4 homers, 10 doubles, swiped 3 bags, and featured a 35:40 BB:K ratio. Improving on his 2006 effort, Daeges slammed 21 homers with 113 RBIs and a whopping 55 doubles in 2007. Moreover, Daeges posted a 82:97 BB:K ratio, again displaying the plate patience that first enticed the Red Sox. During an interview with RedSoxNation.net’s David Laurila, Daeges said of his batting ability, “I’m kind of a power hitter, but at the same time I can hit for a good average. I consider plate discipline to be one of my strengths. Depending on the situation, I’m either looking for a pitch to drive up the middle or one that I can hit out of the park.”
We are bullish on Daeges’ future – his 21 homers and 55 doubles indicate developing power that should continue to flourish with maturity. The combination of Daeges’ power hitting and disciplined eye should make him a prospect worth watching in 2008 as he will ascend quickly if his defense improves and bat stays hot.
Is it an anachronism to report on minor leaguers in October, just as the regular season comes to an end? We don’t think so. Every shrewd fanballer recognizes that it is never too early to begin preparing for next season. We are confident that the Minor-ity ReportTM will sharpen your minor league acumen and prove instrumental in your pursuit of a first-place trophy.