This week we look at dangerous and wondrous world of Starting Pitchers.  I have talked to many Strat-O-Matic players and I would say that roughly a third of you will absolutely positively never draft a starting pitching with your first pick in the draft.  If the pitcher in question is left-handed, that number would increase to fifty percent.  Of the two-thirds who say they would, about a quarter of you would only do it if you need the innings or if the player would help you make the playoffs.

1.) Justin Verlander (18-6, 0 SV, 3.68 ERA, .694/.642 L/R OPS)

He had the combination good card and excellent skills.  He immediately filled a hole in a rotation and his numbers in 2007 look even better.  He had a couple of rough starts in July and August, but he finished strong in September.  If you got him, he’ll be a major part of your rotation for years to come.

2.) Francisco Liriano (Did Not Play / Uncarded)

Drafting Liriano was a bitter sweet proposition.  The card was certainly sweet.  He threw 144 strikeouts in 121 innings!  He even had a closer rating.  The bitter part was that you knew that he wasn’t going to play this year.  So, I’m going to assume that if you drafted him, you did so to compete now.

3.) Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 0 SV, 4.80 ERA, .895/.959 L/R OPS)

Sanchez tore his labrum and needed surgery.  The Marlins optioned him then put him on the DL which is technically against the rules as it affects his Major League service time and when he can first become a free agent.  So, Sanchez doesn’t like pitching for the Marlins.  Nothing like some angst to go with the pain.

4.) Jered Weaver (13-7, 0 SV, 4.01 ERA, .745/.758 L/R OPS)

Personally, I wasn’t all that high on the younger Weaver.  You have to like the strong strike out to walk ratio, but the results never seem to match the indicators.  Weaver has had his up and down starts this year.  He will certainly be part of your roster next year, but he won’t be the #1 or #2 you were looking for.

5.) Cole Hamels (14-5, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, .712/.690 L/R OPS)

There were a number of concerned with Cole Hamels that probably dropped him down.  First, there were the injury concerns.  He had not successfully pitched a minor league season without missing some time.  Second, he is a lefty and unfortunately, there are always a couple of weak hitters who statistically have good cards and become playable against left-handed pitchers.  This year he has performed very well, although he did miss some time with a sore elbow.  His card will be slightly reversed increasing his value.)

6.) Josh Johnson (Uncarded)

Johnson is an example of the risk in drafting pitchers.  A solid prospect with a good card, Johnson probably went early.  First he got hurt was missed half of the season.  He came back, but after only four starts, woke up one morning unable to move his arm.  He’ll ended up needing Tommy John surgery, and because he had it late in the season, he will miss all of 2008 as well.

7.) Jeremy Sowers (1-6, 0 SV, 6.42 ERA, .593/.938 L/R OPS)

The Tribes #1 pick in 2004, is not a hard thrower, but he was a refined pitcher with a good slider and change up.  You couldn’t argue with the numbers he put up the year before.  He had a couple of good starts early in the season, sadly he lost all control.  He finally started pitching better in Triple-A in August.  He made one Major League start late in September and went five innings of scoreless ball.  He’ll fight for a job next year.

8.) Scott Olsen (10-15, 0 SV, 5.81 ERA, .864/.886 L/R OPS)

Olsen has had a terrible season.  On top of it all he was charged with DUI, resisting arrest and fleeing from an officer.  He’ll get out of it by completing a Pre-trial Diversion Program.  He won’t get out of the 5.81 ERA.

9.) Adam Wainwright (13-12, 0 SV, 3.69 ERA, .688/.745 L/R OPS)

A post-season hero, Wainwright gave you a playable closer card for now with the hope that you’d have a useable starter next year.  He’ll be a good middle of the order starter.

10.) Anthony Reyes (2-14, 0 SV, 6.04 ERA, .773/.824 L/R OPS)

The Cardinals have absolutely no idea what to do with Reyes.  He was 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in Triple-A.  So, you know that he’s Major League ready.  His numbers aren’t that bad.  There will be pitchers with similar cards and much better records.  Digging a little deeper, you find this little gem.  OPS with no one on?  .641.  OPS with someone on?  1.096!  That is it in a nutshell.

Out of the Box: Tom Gorzelanny (14-9, 0 SV, 3.73 ERA, .515/.779)

He had a good card but a couple of negatives.  First, he has trouble staying healthy.  Second, he’s a lefty.  Third, he’s a Pirate.  He won’t put up the same numbers he did in the Majors for you as his numbers against right-handers isn’t that good.  You’ll be looking at a high 4.00 ERA in Strat.  While he might not have the best numbers, he will be part of your rotation and whole bunch of pitchers rated higher than him did much worse.

I’ll finish this series by looking at relievers and closers next week, then we’ll start preparing for the 2008 draft.

JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series.  In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship.  He is in his second season in the Tout Wars mixed league.