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DL Down Low > Arm in a Sling

Looking back, it seems as if starting pitchers really got hit with the worst injuries throughout this season. Guys like Mike Hampton, Matt Clement and phenom Francisco Liriano never even got a chance to take the mound in 2007 because of an arm injury. While others like Pedro Martinez, Brandon Backe and Mark Mulder spent about five months stashed away on the shelf. Think about all the Cy Young award-winning pitchers that dealt with injuries – the list is rather impressive…

The Big Unit (1999, 2000, 2001, 2002), Pedro (1997, 1999, 2000), Chris Carpenter (2005) and Bartolo Colon (2005) combined for nine awards in their storied careers – they combined for just a dozen wins this season. Former Rookie of the Year winners Kerry Wood, Huston Street and Jason Jennings also all spent a great portion of ’07 sidelined with an injury. In this edition of the DL Down Low, we’ll take a look around the major leagues and examine what pitchers were the biggest fantasy disappointments due to injuries. 

Starting Pitchers
1. Chris Carpenter (elbow) – 0-1, 7.50 ERA, 3 K, 1 BB
2. Mark Prior (shoulder) – none
3. Jason Schmidt (shoulder) – 1-4, 6.31 ERA, 22 K, 14 BB
4. Bartolo Colon (elbow) – 6-7, 6.68 ERA, 71 K, 29 BB
5. Josh Johnson (forearm) – 0-3, 7.47 ERA, 14 K, 12 BB

After showing that he could be an ace at the highest level, winning 18 games in 2003, Prior has matched that win total in his previous four seasons combined, going 18-17 overall. He went just 1-6 last season and didn’t even get a chance to appear in a single game this season for the Cubbies. He could very likely be the biggest bust in baseball over the past four years, and is the epitome of a high-risk, high-reward injury-prone player. There is no doubting his potential, but avoid him in fantasy leagues unless you are prepared for the numerous headaches that come with him.

Bartolo Colon won the 2005 Cy Young with the Angels after he went 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA and 157 strikeouts. Then, the tremendous workload over the previous seven seasons caught up to him in 2006, limiting him to a meager 1-5 record before missing the final couple months with torn rotator cuff. He sat out the first three weeks of this season still recovering from surgery, but promptly went 5-0 in his first six starts when he came off the shelf. Things looked bright for Colon until elbow and triceps irritation completely took away his game. He’s won just one game since May 17, and has managed only two quality starts in his past 11 trips to the hill.

Josh Johnson was one of the most impressive rookies in the game during the 2006 season. He finished with a 12-7 record and a eyebrow raising 3.10 ERA in his first full year – with his ERA under 3.00 almost the entire year. However, 2007 was a lost season for the big 6’7”, 230-pound righty. After being sidelined the first 2.5 months because of an elbow injury, he only made four starts before undergoing ligament replacement surgery in early August. The surgery is expected to keep the Marlins ace out for the entire 2008 season also.

6. Carl Pavano (elbow) – 1-0, 4.76 ERA, 4 K, 2 BB
7. John Patterson (elbow) – 1-5, 7.47 ERA, 15 K, 22 BB
8. Francisco Liriano (elbow) – none
9. Randy Johnson (back) 4-3, 3.81 ERA, 72 K, 13 BB
10. Pedro Martinez (shoulder) 2-0, 1.69 ERA, 17 K, 4 BB

The Yankees dished out $39.95 million to Pavano for a four-year deal following the 2004 season. The kid won 18 games that season and his future looked bright. In fact, he helped lead Florida over the Bronx Bombers in the 2003 World Series. Well, injuries virtually all but dismantled his pitching career the past few years, and the Yankees are looking back at the signing as one of the biggest busts ever. After undergoing season-ending elbow replacement surgery in late May, there’s a chance Pavano might sit out all of 2009 also. The Yankees return on it all…? Five wins! That’s a cool $8 million per victory.

Liriano looked like Johan Santana reincarnated last season when he broke on the scene. He finished his lights-out rookie campaign posting a stellar 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA and a 144/32 K/BB ratio. However, the southpaw required the dreaded Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, and was lost for the entire 2007 campaign too. The 23-year-old has just started a throwing routine again and is optimistic he’ll be ready for the start of training camp in ’08. Because of the missed season, he’ll definitely slip in many fantasy leagues, but this kid is one of the most dominating hurlers in the game and should be considered a top fantasy alternative because of his tremendous upside.

It took Pedro over 11 months to collect strikeouts 2,998, 2,999 and the exclusive No. 3,000. He achieved that milestone earlier this month after sitting out the first five months of the season because of torn tendon in his left calf. He’s come back strong and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. Through three starts, he has gone 2-0 with a dominating 1.69 ERA. The Mets have him penciled in to be their No. 2 starter during the playoffs behind veteran Tom Glavine. He’s one of the only pitchers on this list that is healthy now and it looks like the 35-year-old, three-time Cy Young winner could play another three-to-four years. Among active players, Mr. Martinez leads all hurlers with a 2.80 career earned run average.

11. Freddy Garcia (shoulder) – 1-5, 5.90 ERA, 50 K, 19 BB
12. Rich Harden (shoulder) – 1-2, 2.45 ERA, 27 K, 11 BB
13. Eric Milton (elbow) – 0-4, 5.17 ERA, 18 K, 9 BB
14. Mark Mulder (shoulder) – 0-3, 12.27 ERA, 3 K, 7 BB
15. Mike Hampton (elbow) – none

The previous six seasons, Garcia has averaged exactly 15 wins per year while pitching for the Mariners and White Sox. He made at least 31 starts and threw 200+ innings each of those seasons. However, after the Phillies inked him for a cool $10 million to be their ace, Garcia endured his worst statistical campaign of his career. All in all, he went just 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA in 11 starts. He had been hoping to return the past three months, but instead opted for season-ending labrum surgery last week. A free agent-to-be could miss most, if not all, of 2008 as well.

The last time Mike Hampton threw a pitch in the major leagues, 40-Year-Old Virgin was enjoying its opening weekend in the movies. It was on August 19, 2005 and the southpaw was defeated by the Padres after he surrendered 11 hits and seven runs. If he’s able to return for the beginning of 2008, he’ll have missed at least 30 months between starts. Ouchy! 2006 – no stats, 2007 – no stats. Since then, Steve Carell has been in American Storage, Over the Hedge, Little Miss Sunshine, Knocked Up, Evan Almighty, Saturday Night Live, the Office and five more films in post-production and on the horizon. Hampton is just hoping his career has a happy ending leftover still.

Mulder led the major leagues in victories from 2001-2005 with 88 wins – including a 16-8 record in his first season with the Cards in ’05. However, the two-time All-Star hit a wall in 2006, finishing a sub par 6-7 with a 7.15 ERA. He underwent shoulder surgery on his left arm and missed the first five months of this year. He finally made his season debut in September, and has gone a miserable 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA in his three trips to the hill. Something is obviously wrong with the former Athletic great. He’s expected to undergo additional tests on that troublesome shoulder – possibly even an MRI later this week. At this point, the Cardinals would be wide to just shut him down regardless and hope he can come back strong in ’08. He’s a winner when he’s on – so consider him a sleeper candidate if he can avoid another offseason surgery.

Other Notables:
Cliff Lee
(abdomen) – 5-8, 6.53 ERA, 63 K, 36 BB
Esteban Loaiza (knee, neck) – 2-2, 4.55 ERA, 15 K, 16 BB

Relievers
1. B.J. Ryan (elbow) – 0-2, 3 S, 12.46 ERA, 3 K, 4 BB
2. Chris Ray (elbow) – 5-6, 4.43 ERA, 16 S, 44 K, 18 BB, out for 2008
3. Octavio Dotel (shoulder) - 2-1, 4.61 ERA, 34 K, 12 BB
4. Kerry Wood (shoulder) – 1-1, 4.58 ERA, 15 K, 10 BB
5. Mike Gonzalez (elbow) – 2-0, 2 S, 1.59 ERA, 13 K, 8 BB

The Blue Jays were ravaged by injuries this season, as A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, Troy Glaus, Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, Roy Halladay, Brandon League and Josh Towers each missed significant playing time because of the injury bug. Perhaps, the biggest loss was the absence of stud southpaw closer, B.J. Ryan though. The Jays’ pen just never recovered after his loss, and – as well as Jeremy Accardo performed – there’s talk that Ryan could miss half of the 2008 season as well. The previous two seasons he was lights-out, saving 74 games, striking out 11.7/9 IP and posting an ERA below 2.00. Most pitchers need at least a couple years to recover from elbow replacement surgery, so don’t expect much production from him next year either.

The Braves bullpen has gone through Bob Wickman, Octavio Dotel, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano as closer options this season, and none have really been able to keep the job very long or successfully. Gonzalez underwent Tommy John surgery in early June and is expected to be out until midseason 2008. After saving 24 games with a 2.17 ERA in 2006 for Pittsburgh, he was stuck in middle relief mostly with the Braves. He’s got the upside of being one of the top save-men in the game if he gets another chance. However, that won’t likely be until 2009 at the earliest. Dotel went 11-for-14 in save opportunities with the Royals before being dealt to ATL, but has been stuck on the shelf the majority of the time since. He locked down 36 games with the A’s in 2004 – however, he’s been held to 52.2 IP the past three seasons due to various injuries. Like so many people on this list, he has tremendous potential, but injuries have robbed him from the star he could have been. He’s unfortunately been labeled an injury liability… and as many of these guys can contest, that’s a major obstacle to overcome.

Next week, we’ll break down the largest position player injury busts. Some players on this list include Scott Rolen, Scott Podsednik and Hank Blalock.

posted @ Tuesday, September 18, 2007 10:11 PM by Matt Lawrence

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