It won't be long before the 2007 season comes to and end, starting what I call Strat-O-Matic spring training. Before that happens, I'd like to take one more look at last year's draft because it was unusually deep. There are lessons we can learn looking that what we thought and did last year that will hopefully help us make better decisions next year. For this week, I'll look at catchers and infielders.
Catchers
From a catcher's perspective, it was a good year if you needed immediate help and were willing to use your first or second pick to fill that need. Russell Martin was the Blue Chip prospect, good card and excellent future. Kenji Johima, Ronny Paulino and Mike Napoli all could be #1 starters in a pinch. If you were looking for future help in the middle rounds, there wasn't much there.
1 .) Russell Martin (.297 BA, .377 OBP, .475 SLG, 17 HR, 21-8 SB/CS, 1.058 / .787 L/R OPS)
Martin has certainly put up the solid numbers. Unfortunately, once you look at the splits, you see that he leans to the left. Yes, he's a #3 hitter against left-handers, but you're dropping down to maybe #6 or #7 against right-handers. While these numbers are a bit frustrating, he does provide good protection for left-handed hitters in a lineup. Yes, your opponent might bring in a lefty-reliever, but once Martin comes up, that lefty is gone.
2.) Kenji Johjima (.285 BA, .319 OBP, .441 SLG, 14 HR, .917/.717 L/R OPS)
Johjima has the same problem as Martin in that he is much better against lefties. He's an everyday player which is good. You just need him to get a zero arm to make him have real value.
3.) Ronny Paulino (.261 BA, .314 OBP, .394 SLG, 10 HR, 1.024/.601 L/R OPS )
Once again we see a really high lean to the left. Paulino is the worst case. He's batting only .214 against right-handers making him pretty much unplayable. You will have to find someone to platoon with him.
4.) Mike Napoli (.249 BA, .343 OBP, .452 SLG, 9 HR, 5-2 SB/CS, .784/.799 L/R OPS)
Napoli has missed significant time with hamstring problems, so he'll be lucky to even get 200 at-bats. He's in a platoon with Jeff Mathis, so the Angels have been using him sparingly.
5.) Chris Iannetta (.215 BA, .325 OBP, .345 SLG, 3 HR, .727/.651 L/R OPS)
I had some high hopes for Iannetta as a fourth or fifth round pick. Alas, he has struggled both offensively and defensively. Catchers are late bloomers. He had no trouble hitting when he was sent down to Triple-A, so it might take a couple of seasons for him to be a starting catcher.
Off the Radar: Carlos Ruiz (.260 BA, .334 OBP, .409 SLG, 6 HR, .579/.795 L/R OPS)
If you picked up Carlos Ruiz late, you were one smart grasshopper. While the overall numbers aren't great, he leans to the right. Against right-handers, he is a .285 hitter with a .360 OBP!
First Baseman
Not a strong first base crop last year by any means. At the time of the draft none of these players were expected to have significant playing time. All three can hit and are worth having on your roster for the future.
James Loney (.322 BA, .372 OBP, .522 SLG, 11 HR, .914/.887 L/R OPS)
The problem with Loney is that he's a good defensive first baseman with some pop ala J.T. Snow. Not every team appreciates what a good defensive first baseman can do. While Loney has hit, he won't get the at-bats to make him an every day player. When he does play, he'll be at least a 1b-2 and a 1b-1 is not out of the question.
Ryan Garko (.293 BA, .362 OBP, .480 SLG, 18 HR, .922/.807 L/R OPS)
Garko is the one first baseman rookie card who has gotten real playing time. He's getting only five to six starts a week so he'll need to be in a platoon. He is probably a 1b-4 as well.
Kendry Morales (.310 BA, .337 OBP, .490 SLG, 3 HR, .545/.904 L/R OPS)
Morales has been up and down all year long. He finally got some really playing time when Casey Kotchman went down and has hit very well. He has hit .414 in Triple-A for the second half, so there is no question whether he can hit. The question is whether the Angels will have a spot in their lineup for him.
Second Basemen
There might not have been many first basemen to choose from, but there was quite a few second basemen. There were four starters and a fifth potential starter. Did you pick the right one?
1.) Josh Barfield (.246 BA, .273 OBP, .326 SLG, 3 HR, 14-3 SB-CS .563/.612 L/R OPS)
At the time of the draft, Barfield seemed like the real deal. He hit .280 with 13 HR in Petco Park. He was an everyday player. He was moving to Jacobs Field which wasn't a hitter's paradise, but it was an improvement. He seemed like a safe best as the best available second basemen. Alas, he has struggled. Chalk it up to the good ole sophomore slump. He is a buy low candidate.
2.) Dan Uggla (.246 BA, .322 OBP, .482 SLG, 29 HR, .799/.806 L/R OPS)
On the one hand, Dan Uggla could be plugged in any lineup. He hit for power and had a pretty good batting average. He had a full-time job. On the other hand, he was too old to be a prospect. He was only a 2B-3. Everyone knew he did all his damage in the first-half of the season. The batting average isn't there, but he does have power. You'll probably want to find someone to hit for him against left-handers, because he is only hitting .224 against them, but he is certainly playable.
3.) Howie Kendrick (.317 BA, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 5 HR, .854/.776 L/R OPS)
Kendrick missed a good chunk of the season with a broken hand. He'll have about 300 at-bats when the season is done, so you'll need a playable backup for half of the season. Kendrick has walked nine times all season, so he needs to hit .317 to have any OBP at all. He also lacks power. Still, a second baseman who can hit is always an asset.
4.) Ian Kinsler (.273 BA, .357 OBP, .466 SLG, 19 HR, 1.024/.754 L/R OPS)
Kinsler's card against lefties is going to be nasty! Unfortuntely, he's a .248 hitter with only a .421 SLG against right-handers. He also missed significant time due to injury. I should also warn you that he has a .919 OPS at home and a .717 OPS on the road. If he leaves Texas, unload him as quickly as possible.
Off the Radar: Dustin Pedroia (.325 BA, .389 OBP, .451 SLG, .844/.838 L/R OPS)
At the time of the draft, you weren't really sure if Pedroia had a job. I mean, this is Boston we are talking here. It was hard to believe that they would play an undersized rookie, much less someone with little power and little speed. Then again, baseball has come to appreciate the underdog spark plug, and Pedroia has certainly been one. He struggled early, so he was on the bench two to three times a week early on, but you'd have to nail him to the bench now.
Third Basemen
Third base was especially weak in the 2007 draft with only one player expected to have a starting job. By this point, it was pretty clear that the Devil Rays were not going to put B.J. Upton at third, so I'm not going to include him here.
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.262 BA, .316 OBP, .444 SLG, .907/.699 L/R OPS)
Kouzmanoff started out really slow, hitting only .113 in the month of April. He has turned it up a notch since the Padres signed Morgan Ensberg. For next year, you are going to have to platoon him, but he has shown both offensively and defensively that he is ready to be a major league regular.
Scott Moore (Only 17 at-bats)
Moore went from stuck behind Aramis Ramirez to stuck behind Melvin Mora. Mora is only signed through 2009. Moore lacks the power one wants from a first baseman, but that might be the only way he becomes a regular as long as he stays in the Orioles system. You probably drafted him really late.
Shortstops
Shortstop was another position that was rather deep. If you had an early draft pick, you had two choices. You could go for Steven Drew, the better long term prospect or Hanley Ramirez, the immediate help but not as good defensively.
1.) Steven Drew (.227 BA, .303 OBP, .360 SLG, 11 HR, 8-0 SB/CS, .607/.680 L/R OPS)
The 2006 set was a year for shortstops and Steven Drew was the best of the best. The Diamondbacks across the board have struggled with their hitting. Drew has given up only 14 errors so far this season, so if Strat gives him a 2, his card will be playable based upon defense (and batting ninth). If he is a ss-3, then his card will be close to worthless. Obviously, he is still young and will improve.
2.) Hanley Ramirez (.328 BA, .384 OBP, .561 SLG, 26 HR, 46-12 SB/CS, 1.159 / .886 L/R OPS)
If you drafted Ramirez last year, well, you're probably beside yourself. Ramirez is a certified #3 hitter. He's a little bit weaker against RHP, but that makes him ideal to bat behind a left-handed hitter that is weaker against lefties, like Jim Thome. Defensively, you have to be a little bit concerned. The 21 errors and the low range factor means that a ss-2 is unlikely. A ss-4 is also unlikely, so I'd give him a ss-3 e26.
3.) Troy Tulowitzki (.294 BA, .363 OBP, .476 SLG, 21 HR, .934/.811 L/R OPS)
If there wasn't a Ryan Braun in the league, there would be no question that Troy Tulowitzki would be a Rookie of the Year winner in my opinion. Offensively, the numbers are there. Defensively, the numbers are there. Tulowitzki was probably a second round pick for someone (I drafted him in my home league with my first pick, to some chucking...) and that someone is very happy. A ss-2 is pretty much in the bag based upon the rave reviews of his defense.
4.) Erick Aybar (.237 BA, .284 OBP, .277 SLG, 0 HR, .643/.537 L/R OPS)
If you draft Aybar, you were looking long-term, so the fact that he has a card is pretty much bonus to you. He has a glove and could be a .280 hitter with no power as a starting shortstop once he gets the chance.
Off the Radar: Ryan Theriot (.274 BA, .336 OBP, .361 SLG, 26-4 SB/CS, .805/.664 L/R OPS)
I was asked for advice by a reader on what to do with Theriot. He had a pretty sweet card for a pinch hitter / runner. He was considered for the starting second baseman job with the Cubs, but they were in a spending spree. I told him that the way the Cubs were spending money, I really could see the Cubs signing both a second baseman and a utility infielder. I was partially right. The Cubs signed Mark DeRosa. I didn't expect Theroit to be the starting shortstop.
Next weeks I'll look at utility players and outfielders.
JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series. In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship. He is in his second season in the Tout Wars mixed league.