All too often, when things go pear-shaped in a fantasy baseball season, the owner fails to take responsibility and writes it off to bad luck. This is especially true where injuries are concerned. But with some players, their injury history is largely overstated, or is more predictable than we think. A.J. Burnett falls into this category.

 

Every year, people draft injury-prone high-upside pitchers like A.J. Burnett, and every year, they complain when they get hurt. That may be annoying, but you should be listening and using it to your advantage. By now, with his track records, Burnett has "burned" a lot of fantasy baseball owners. Taking advantage of other owners' hurt feelings is a great way to find fantasy bargains.

 

Burnett has been a full-time pitcher for seven full seasons now. True, he gets hurt a lot and has only gone over 200 IP twice. I'll leave it to one of the injury experts out there to explain why (my amateur guess is that he throws really, really hard, and his arm gets fatigued). But he's also only been a complete bust one time (23 IP in 2003). He is a high-K pitcher who usually also contributes in wins, ERA and WHIP. If you read a lot of fantasy projections after seasons like he's having in 2007, they will say things like "gets hurt too much to pay full value." But here's the thing: you probably don't have to pay full value to get him.

 

How much are these stats worth in your league: 8-12 wins, 150 K. 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP? Probably a decent amount. Probably more than a lot of fantasy squads' #1 starters. You can pretty much write those in for Burnett (as much as you can for any other pitcher), even though he is so "inconsistent" thanks to his injury history.

 

And yet many fantasy owners will skip players like Burnett because of his risk. I don't care that he missed the entire 2003 season. Season-ending injuries happen to players, and pitchers are always injury risks. In shallow leagues, you should be able to find a decent replacement for the time that Burnett misses. But even in deep leagues, why not buy Burnett, and when he hits the DL, pick up a high skills middle reliever to fill in for him until he gets back?

 

At this point, Burnett is consistent with his inconsistency. And in most leagues, you will get him more cheaply than his value thanks to his injury-prone label. Buy him at a bargain price, and plan on him missing a month of the season. Instead of complaining about him getting hurt again, you'll have a bargain ...

 

... This power surge by Mike Jacobs? It's legitimate. He has demonstrated this level of ability in the past. And should provide a nice source of pop over the next few weeks. Jacobs is good and cheap, two things the Marlins love, so he should go into Spring Training with the full-time first base job. And he should be a very cheap source of legitimate power. Many people will overlook him as a boring player, and forget that he was hurt for much of this season. Also, he seems a lot older than he is (at least to me). He'll enter next year as a 27 year-old. Barring injury, 25-30 HR and 85-100 RBI with a respectable batting average should be the expectation. You'll be able to get him late and cheap in most draft formats ...

 

... Another potential source of cheap power and average next season is Twins outfielder Jason Kubel. Kubel entered this season as a top prospect gone awry. He struggled in the beginning of the season, had to fight for a starting job, and as a result, his overall numbers are suppressed. His post All-Star numbers to date, .304 BA with 4 HR and 23 RBI in 125 AB, represent his abilities much better than his season line. Kubel seems like he's been around for awhile because he first teased us with his potential in a cup of coffee in 2004. But he's still only 25, and given the uneven development of David Ortiz and Justin Morneau in Minnesota, Kubel is someone I will be targeting in 2008 in hopes of a breakout. 

 

... Carlos Marmol has been quietly spectacular in middle relief in Chicago this year. The 5-1 record, with a 1.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are good enough. But the numbers that jump out at me are the 86 K in 61 2/3 innings. Marmol has been absolutely dominant. And not that many people realize how valuable he has been. When I traded for Ryan Dempster in a mixed league earlier this year, I snagged the relatively unproven Marmol off the waiver wire for insurance, and he has out-performed many of my starting pitchers since then. It's not uncommon see him pitch a couple of shutout innings, allow a hit, and strike out 3-4 guys. From what I can ascertain, the Cubs are paying Dempster around $5 million per year next season. And here's hoping he enters the season as the closer. That way, Marmol will be undervalued and I can snag him late. He could be the best middle reliever in baseball hidden behind a shaky closer in the last year of a contract. That's how I spell B-A-R-G-A-I-N ...