Johnny Damon may be the biggest name of the offseason. So big that when he sits out a couple of games with a shoulder injury, Red Sox Nation manages to come up with a conspiracy theory that he's sitting out to make sure he stays healthy enough to earn a long-term mega-million free agent deal with the Yankees. Hey, maybe he just saw what happened to Javon Walker this weekend, and is playing it safe. This offseason should be Damon's biggest payday. He will no doubt be courted heavily by both the Red Sox and the Yanks in addition to other teams. It's tough to see him being more productive anywhere else than his current sweet spot, including the Bronx. However, his value could actually go up in a less productive lineup if he's allowed to steal more bases. In 5x5 leagues, his runs scored would take a hit, but the speed would more than make up for that. Those of you who believe in players having career years in contract years (i.e., if you're not an Adrian Beltre owner) will avoid Damon next year ...
... Playing in the shadow of Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte is having a tremendous season. While his run support was Clemensesque for the first couple of months of the season, all of the sudden the Astros started hitting in front of him, and he has been lights out since then, racking up win after win. His ERA, WHIP and strikeouts rival the leading Cy Young candidates, and if he had reasonable run support in the first half of the season, he might be being mentioned in the same breath as Chris Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis. For what it's worth, Pettitte actually leads Willis in all three categories and plays in a much less pitcher-friendly park.
While it has been a great story this season, Pettitte may actually be a name you want to throw out early in your 2006 draft when there's plenty of money on the table. His durability and consistency have always been a concern, and as he turns 34, those worries aren't going away. It's always nice to get your fellow owners to overpay for a career year. It will be interesting to see how the Cy Young voters view Pettitte, and how the major fantasy mags rank him among starting pitchers. If he's in the top 10 to 12 pitchers, he's a prime candidate for the overbidding of the eager Yankees/Astros fan in your league. If people write this season off as a fluke, he'll be a value buy for your second or third starter ...
... Sometimes it's not an individual player we need need to try to predict to break out, but rather a team. When everything comes together for a team making a run, there are usually a number of undervalued fantasy players on that roster. Look at the Indians and White Sox this season. Good hitting is contagious (and it can turn mediocre pitchers into fantasy assets), and there are a lot of winning fantasy squads with a heavy dose of players from those MLB teams in 2005.
Looking at 2006, I see the Brewers as one team to watch. They have at least three starting arms who have some major-league seasoning (including one with ace material) and should be in fine form. They have the speedy Rickie Weeks and my early darkhorse NL MVP candidate, Carlos Lee. And as the Brew Crew will be yet another year removed from the Curse of the House of Selig, there are a plethora of young players in the majors and down on the farm primed for productive seasons. Provided they have a solid offseason, this will be a team I target players from in 2006 ...
... If you buy into Braden Looper as a full-time closer in 2006, you are walking on charcoal. That fabulous 27/21 K/BB ratio and those seven blown saves won't be doing him much good unless he can acquire a 97 mph fastball with pinpoint control, or Jose Mesa's mojo ...
... You've got to love the fact that Rafael Palmeiro showed up at an Orioles-Rangers game and watched from a luxury suite, allegedly to show his support for his teammates. He is clearly so unpopular in Baltimore that they don't even want him on the bench or near a uniform. More likely, he was hanging out with Rangers owner – and apparently his personal friend – Tom Hicks, trying to convince him to bring him back in 2006. If he ever does come back, the Raaaaa-ffyyyyy chant should be accompanied by the crowd emphatically pointing their index fingers at him repeatedly ...
... Taduhito Iguchi is an intriguing player for 2006 if he can make some adjustments at the plate and prove to Ozzie Guillen that he deserves a full-time gig. He provides a nice combination of power and speed (kind of like what some were expecting, but have yet to see from Kaz Matsui). He has avoided the spotlight, and will blend in with the rest of the 2B/MI middle tier, but should have more breakout potential than the rest of the players in there.