The most dangerous word for a fantasy baseball owner is “IF.”  Think about it.

 

How many of us look at our teams and think, IF only (fill in the blank).  Come on, you do it.  I do it.  We all do it.  It is inherent in fantasy sports.  But, it’s dangerous.  Let me explain.  Let’s start with the draft.

 

We all evaluate players based upon a number of factors, one of which is past performance.  How do you evaluate a player who had only 400 at bats last year, as opposed to someone who had a full season of stats?  Naturally, in one way or another, we all extrapolate the 400 at bat season, and try to find a common way to compare that player’s season to the 600 at bat player’s season.

 

For example, Milton Bradley had 351 at bats last year.  IF you project that to a mere 500 at bats, Bradley’s numbers last season would have been .276, 74 runs, 20 home runs, 73 RBI and 14 steals.  Not a bad season.  Of course, Bradley has only had 500 ore more at bats in a season once in his entire career.  The likelihood of Bradley staying healthy for 500 at bats is about the same as the Royals winning the World Series.  Both are possible on Opening Day, but by mid May, both are mere fantasies.  Yet, IF only Bradley could get those at bats, you’d have had a steal on draft day.

 

Bradley isn’t alone on the “IF” game for at bats.  Chris Duncan had 22 home runs in 280 at bats last year.  Project that out to 560 at bats, and Duncan could hit 44 home runs, right?  Well, obviously not.  Yet, again IF Duncan had a full time job, he’d be a fantasy star.  Certainly, there is a flaw to this logic.  Duncan received only 280 at bats for a good reason.  Duncan might as well bring a frying pan out to the outfield in place of his glove.  Both would be equally effective.  Duncan is a DH playing in the National League.  There is another word for such a player, “part-time.” 

 

Other part time players who you just can’t “IF,” include Esteban German, Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, Mike Lamb, Marcus Thames, Wilson Betemit, Johnny Gomes, and Matt Stairs.  Come on, how many of you haven’t looked at Stairs’ 17 home runs in 272 at bats and thought, “What IF?”

 

The “IF” game doesn’t stop with part time players.  It hits hard on the injury prone (think Nomar Garciapara, J.D. Drew, Trot Nixon, Jim Edmonds, Moises Alou, Rickie Weeks, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Howie Kendrick, Ryan Freel, Chipper Jones, and a host of others).  How many of you drafted Chavez this year, figuring that his injury woes were behind him?  How many drafted Chipper, knowing that he would get hurt, but hoping beyond hope that this would be the first year in the last four that Chipper plays in 140 plus games? We all do this, to one extent or another, and invariably, we all lose the “IF” game.

 

Young players are the hardest to figure, and the biggest subjects of the “IF” game.  Looking at last season, how many of us thought that Matt Kemp, James Loney, Chris Burke, Jason Kubel, Lastings Milledge, Jeremy Hermida, Adam Lind, Kendry Morales, or Dallas McPherson, only got the chance to play, then they would be great fantasy contributors.  The only thing standing between them and fantasy stardom (or at least usefulness) is playing time.  IF only they played full time…

 

The world is full of IFs.  There is a great reason why part time players are part time players.  The injury prone players usually don’t suddenly develop into Lou Gehrig clones.  Some young players prosper, and others don’t.  You can IF all you want, but it isn’t going to change the simple fact.  Nomar is going to get hurt.  Duncan will less than 450 at bats, and Adam Lind, with all his talent, is never going to amount to anything worthy of a fantasy spot.

 

Sure, you can hit an “IF” every now and then, but much more often than not, the IF isn’t going to pull through. 

 

IF’ing isn’t limited to player projection, though.  IF’ing is equally as dangerous during the season.  Does this sound familiar?  “IF my guys can just get 30 more strikeouts than the team ahead of me, I can pick up another point?”  Or, “IF Scott Podsednik just steals nine more bases, I can pick up three more league points.”

 

We’ve all done it. We all do it.  Often, projecting your players for the rest of the season is healthy, and indeed necessary for proper management.  Of course, you have to be realistic in your projections.  During most seasons, Pods could very easily steal nine more bases between now and the end of the season.  However, unless you’ve been in a cave for the past month, you know that Josh Fields is now playing left field for Chicago, and even if Podsednik gets healthy, he isn’t likely to play full time.  With the White Sox going nowhere fast, there is no need or reason to put Podsednik into the lineup.  It’s hard to steal from the bench, and even harder to steal from the Disabled List, so dreams of Pods nabbing nine more bases are just that, dreams.

 

Continue with your projections and managing your team.  The last month is the most challenging, and often the most fun.  When you start thinking, “IF,” though, take a breath and come back to reality.

 

Best of luck as the season rushes to the end.

 

Buster