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Miscellaneous Musings > The Joba Rotisserie Fallout

Let's continue from the column last week that examined players in the news with a lens focusing on their anticipated 2008 performance. This week, I'm only going to look at one player, because the insane hype around Joba Chamberlain merits close examination.

This past week, I went to see the Yankees play the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The stars were out that night. Dice-K vs. Andy Pettitte on the mound. Derek Jeter back in the lineup. A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Big Papi, Hideki Matsui and all the other bigtime big name players out on the field. But the one guy that got people unbelievably pumped was Joba Chamberlain.

The sellout crowd, which was strangely reserved for much of the game, gave Joba a standing ovation when he came in. They chanted his name and had signs for him. Yankee Stadium had not been as loud all night, including after A-Rod's home run, as it was when this kid walked out of the bullpen. Most of the crowd stayed on their feet for the entire half inning. It was electric. And he delivered. Pitching in and out of a jam with ridonkulous stuff. But all I could think about for the entire time was a number I saw on the big electronic sign that displayed his stats when he came into the game: 9. That number represented the total amount of innings pitched in his big-league career.

Yes, he has a great name, a great story, and filthy nasty stuff. Yes, his minor league numbers are impressive. Yes, he has come in at the biggest level under the brightest lights and filled a key role on the most famous team in the world. But he had done it for nine innings. I'm sorry, but a lot of really bad pitchers can pitch very impressively for nine innings. This is especially true when they are being protected to the extent that they only have to face a few hitters every other day at most.

As far as next year goes, if this trend continues, he will undoubtedly be overpriced and probably unproven in his role. He will be unproven because, while there is already a push in the New York media to groom him as Mariano Rivera's successor (led by Chris "Mad Dog" Russo), the Yankees will have serious rotation issues to address next season. And he is probably at the top of their list of people to fill that hole. And a quality starter is much more valuable than a quality closer. Besides, Rivera may have two (or more) more seasons in him as an above-average closer. The Yankees are not likely to wait that long to maximize Chamberlain's value.

He will be overpriced because ... well, let's count the reasons.

1. He's a Yankee.

2. He has been lights out.

3. He has a cool name that even casual fans remember.

In fact, in my shallow league, where middle relievers are pretty much useless, the first-place team picked him up off the free agent pile. While Chamberlain is technically keepable in that league, the owner would have to be keeping him over someone like Ryan Braun or Jake Peavy. So, most likely, he is just on the roster so folks can say they owned him when he was a rookie. This guy is going to have a hefty price tag on him next season unless he implodes from here on out.

And the Yankees are doing nothing to calm the hype. In fact, there is already chatter from Joe Torre that they want to use him more right now, and abandon the "Joba Rules" that were put in place to make sure his young arm wasn't overworked. Given the kid's performance, and the fact that Torre can't rely on Kyle Farnsworth, this is not at all unexpected.

As of today, it looks like he'll be a candidate to be a starter next season, but we won't have a real idea of how he'll perform in that role in the bigs. Of course, he could be a stud right away, I suppose. Looking at his track record and his minor league performance, he is one of the most intriguing young pitchers in baseball. But when we look at how rookie pitchers generally fare, the odds are against him. This is not to say that he'll be someone to ignore. But rather, in auctions, he will be an early name to throw out there to generate overbidding. And in straight drafts, someone will most likely reach for him.

So sit back, relax and enjoy the Joba Era. Just remember that this lvel of hype had been generated after the equivalent of only one complete game.

posted @ Thursday, August 30, 2007 12:41 PM by Chris Maher

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