At the conclusion of last football season, in the companion column series to this one, The NFFC Zone, I looked at how those owners fared who had selected LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander in the 2006 draft. The three held the top three average draft positions (ADP) in last season’s NFFC.

 

http://www.creativesports.com/Staff/FootballArticles/tabid/78/ctl/ArticleView/mid/410/articleId/1122/TheNFFCZoneLTorBust.aspx

 

As you probably learned long ago, selecting LT2 was the ticket to a league victory for an incredible half of his owners in the 2006 National Fantasy Football Championship. Actually it was “only” 48%, but you surely get my point. A single dominant player had what may be an unprecedented influence on the outcome of scores of leagues.

 

In that same article, linked to above, I also noted the similar but dissimilar situation in the 2006 NFBC for those owners who drafted early, taking consensus top picks Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols or Vladimir Guerrero.

 

In 2006, collectively these guys were the “anti-LT2”, seemingly dooming their owners’ seasons. How bad was it? Pretty bad, indeed.

 

In fact, only one of the 22 NFBC league winners last season had any one of these three players on their roster. Further, only one team in the top 20 of the overall championship rankings had any one of three – and all of them placed well out of the big money.

 

Back to the here and now, though there are still six weeks remaining in the 2007 baseball season, in most cases, the die is cast. Those owners who should compete for the spoils have stepped to the front of the pack while the others have fallen back.

 

So, with A-Rod and Albert continuing in the top tier of draftees across every league this season, let’s take a look at how their respective owners are doing. But before we do, I have to make an admission. These two weren’t the top two players selected in 2007.

 

Pujols was the consensus #1 pick, with an average draft selection of 1.07 across 28 live-draft leagues, 25 regular leagues plus three Ultimate Leagues. He was taken first in 27 leagues and third in the other. Suppose that latter owner was delighted at the instant when Pujols fell to him at number three?

 

However, everyone’s darling, A-Rod, was only the fourth most desired player in the NFBC, also following Jose Reyes and Alfonso Soriano. A-Rod’s average draft position was 4.54. He went as high as second in at least one draft and as late as seventh(!) in another. Can you imagine that owner who nabbed Rodriguez at number seven is happy now?

 

Let’s take a look at the data.

 

First, we have the 28 league leaders as of Friday, August 17, representing the live drafted leagues, 25 main event ones plus three Ultimate Leagues.

 

League leaders
	Pujols	Reyes	Soriano	A-Rod	None of 4	% w/None
28 teams	0	5	1	3	19	68%

 

As the data shows and as I suspected beforehand, not a single team with Pujols is leading their league this season. Soriano owners aren’t doing much better, but I had expected A-Rod’s owners to have fared better than Reyes. Not so in this measurement at this point in the season.

 

Still, over 2/3 of the league leaders did not select any of the top four players on draft day. No LT factor here! (Did I mention that I drafted Pujols first in New York League 6? Of course, any rationalization about that has absolutely, positively nothing to do with the inspiration for this article.)

 

Shifting gears to the overall $100,000 Main Event, I looked at the top ten teams, the only ones currently in the money. This spread looks a bit more like what I had expected to see, though only two A-Rod owners have placed among the elite. The other 80% have none of the four top ADP players.

 

In the Money
overall
	Pujols	Reyes	Soriano	A-Rod	None of 4	% w/None
10 teams	0	0	0	2	8	80%

 

Staying with the overall $100,000 Main Event, next I tallied the top 10%, representing 37 of the 375 combatants. This spread shows as many A-Rod owners placing as the other three combined. That makes sense to me.

 

Yet, let’s not lose sight of the fact that 62% of the teams in the NFBC's top 10% overall have none of the four top players as defined by ADP.

 

Top 10% overall
	Pujols	Reyes	Soriano	A-Rod	None of 4	% w/None
37 teams	1	3	3	7	23	62%

 

I would have been most satisfied to stop there. However, one entry completely ruined my day.

 

The team called “WE’RE SPARTACUS”, owned by Bob Mazur in Las Vegas League 7 is 24th overall. That is the one team that has somehow managed to overcome drafting Pujols enough to at least crack the top 10%.

 

Sadly, as noted above, only the top ten teams overall cash in, not the top 10%, so SPARTACUS isn’t likely to win this war. There may be another way, however. In Las Vegas 7, Mazur is still within striking distance, seven points behind the league leader.

 

So, there you have it. If you drafted Albert Pujols this season, unless you are capable of storming Troy, you have on your hands the 2007 NFBC version of the anti-LT2.

 

Not to worry, though. The NFL season starts in three weeks. Maybe you’ll get the first pick in your league and nab the real LT2 this year – the one that gives you a legitimate chance to win!

 

Brian Walton’s work can also be found daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.