I’ve gone fishing (literally) this weekend, so today’s column was actually written last Monday, using statistics from that day.  These statistics might be a tad stale, but the theory is not, and the statistics help support that theory.

 

Every draft day, one of the biggest challenges we face as fantasy owners is when to take our closers, and how many to take. Conventional wisdom indicates that closers, no matter how good they are, are essentially one category players.  Let me perform a very quick example to show precisely how much, or in this case, how little, a closer affects your ERA, ratio, strikeouts and wins. 

 

For this example, I am going to use my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team’s pitching staff.  My two closers (after B.J. Ryan went under the knife) are Todd Jones and Matt Capps.  Jones has been awful, except for saving 26 games. His ERA is 5.01, his ratio is 1.548, and he has only 22 strikeouts.  Of course, I drafted Jones in the 14^th round.  What if a super closer, such as Francisco Rodriguez had been available instead of Jones (for what it is worth, K-Rod went in the 4^th round)?

 

Replacing Jones’ numbers with K-Rod’s, would result in the following:

 

Saves decrease by one, costing me 0.5 in the standings.  Wins increase by two, with no change in the standings.  Strikeouts increase by 37, giving me an additional three points in the standings. My ERA drops from 4.24 to 4.12, and my ratio drops from 1.379 to 1.372.  Neither change has any effect on the standings.  So, had I drafted K-Rod instead of Jones, I would have 2.5 more points in the overall standings.  Of course, K-Rod went in the 4^th round, I drafted Victor Martinez in that round, and Jones went in the 14^th round (the K-Rod owner drafted Corey Hart in that round), the numbers clearly indicate that Jones/Martinez are better than K-Rod/Hart.

 

I am certain that you can find examples of closers being drafted early that significantly helped your team.  I won’t dispute that, nor do I believe that my single example is the end-all to this discussion.  However, having drafted Ryan, I am now of the opinion that we as fantasy owners do place a disproportionate value on closers.  To support that statement, I am going to list the top 25 closers drafted in the entire NFBC competition this year, in order, with their save totals indicated.

 

Francisco Rodriguez (CL, LAA)	25
Joe Nathan (CL, Min)	20
B.J. Ryan (CL, Tor)	3
Billy Wagner (CL, NYM)	22
Mariano Rivera (CL, NYY)	15
Huston Street (CL, Oak)	9
Trevor Hoffman (CL, SD)	27
J.J. Putz (CL, Sea)	29
Francisco Cordero (CL, Mil)	31
Chad Cordero (CL, Was)	19
Takashi Saito (CL, LAD)	25
Bobby Jenks (CL, ChW)	26
Chris Ray (CL, Bal)	16
Tom Gordon (CL, Phi)	5
Jonathan Papelbon (CL, Bos)	22
Brad Lidge (MR, Hou)	3
Brian Fuentes (CL, Col)	20
Jose Valverde (CL, Ari)	30
Bob Wickman (CL, Atl)	16
Eric Gagne (CL, Tex)	14
Todd Jones (CL, Det)	26
Jason Isringhausen (CL, StL)	19
Joe Borowski (CL, Cle)	28
Octavio Dotel (CL, KC)	10
Salomon Torres (MR, Pit)	12

 

From this chart, you can see how the top drafted closers did, as a group. 

• The top five closers average, to date, 17 saves each. This, of course, is skewed by Ryan.
• The top ten closers average 20 saves each. 
• The top fifteen closers average 19.6 saves each. 
• The top twenty closers average 18.9 saves each.
• The top 25 closers average 18.9 saves each.

 

Now, let’s look at each group of closers, taking five at a time.

• The top five closers average 17 saves each.
• The top four closers (discounting Ryan) average 21.5 saves each. 
• The 6^th through the 10^th closers average 23 saves each (and this includes an injury-filled year by Huston Street). 
• The 11^th through the 15^th closers average 18.9 saves each.
• The 16^th through the 20^th closers average 16.6 saves each.
• The 21^st through 25^th closers average 19 saves each.

 

Of interest, the top five closers not drafted among the first 25 closers (Kevin Gregg, David Weathers, Al Reyes, Ryan Dempster and Jeremy Accardo) are averaging 17.4 saves, each.

 

There is no rhyme or reason to the numbers.  One could argue that the closers taken 21^st through 25^th have outperformed the closers taken 1^st through 5^th, but what does that mean?  Historically, it is difficult to accurately predict the saves leader.  In 2002, converted starter John Smoltz led the majors in saves.  In 2003, Eric Gagne led the majors in saves.  In 2004, it was Mariano Rivera.  In 2005, Chad Cordero was the major’s leader.  In 2006, K-Rod led the league.  This season, Francisco Cordero is leading the majors, followed closely by Jose Valverde.

 

If you can discern anything from the numbers above (the figures for the past five seasons are also remarkably similar), it should be that drafting closers early in the draft is probably not the best move to make.  Saves are available later in the draft, and also on the free agent wire.  In the NFBC, Jones, Octavio Dotel and Weathers, among others, have all been cut in various leagues. 

 

Think long and hard about drafting a closer in the first seven rounds, and when you convince yourself to go ahead and draft one, think of Ryan, Street and Brad Lidge, and think again.

 

Best of luck.

 

Buster