The All-Star break is the halfway point of the season and an opportunity to take a look at where we are and were we hoped to be. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championships, I'm hovering between 8th and 12th. Here is what drafted and what they are doing:
1st Round: Albert Pujols - Underachieving
As I had the first overall pick, taking Pujols was pretty obvious. It is also pretty obvious that a major reason why I'm in the lower half is due to Pujols underperforming. He is currently on pace for 30 HR, 95 Runs 99 RBI.
2nd Round: Chris Carpenter - Hurt
And the season reason why I'm in the lowers half is Chris Carpenter. I was expecting a significant improvement with Carpenter than his 2006 season as their defense up the middle improved with the addition of Adam Kennedy. His spring training numbers only reinforced my opinion. Alas, Carpenter got hurt the first game of the season.
3rd Round: Joe Mauer - Hurt / Underachieving
It was certainly a risk taking a catcher this early, especially when I took a pitcher so early, but I was hoping that Mauer was going to show a bit more power this year. He did get hurt with a rather nasty injury and missed some time. There are two main philosophies of when to predict a power burst: The first says around 26 to 27 years old. The second says the third full season is the power burst. That happens to be around 26-or-27 for a good young player. While I didn't expect Mauer to be around 30 homeruns, I was hoping that he'd build on his 13 last year and be near 20 this year. Alas, that is not happening.
4th Round: Brian McCann - Underachieving
I'm beginning to sense a pattern here. Brian McCann is on pace to hit 16 homeruns and 47 runs, significantly below the .280/70/20/90 I was expecting from him.
5th Round: Robinson Cano - Underachieving
Cano is coming up short in homeruns and batting average. I was expecting about .290 with 20 homeruns. Right now he's looking at 11 homeruns, but he is a second half player, so I still have home for him.
6th Round: Chris Young (Pitcher) - Overachieving
It took six rounds, but we finally got to someone doing better than expected. Chris Young is on a pace for 15 wins, a 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 184 strikeouts. While it is unlikely that he'll keep his ERA in the low 2.00's, this is the performance I was hoping from him.
7th Round: Chris Young (Outfielder) - Underachieving
The other Chris Young is not doing what I thought of him, yet. I was expecting .260 with 20 homeruns and 20 steals. He's on pace for 23 homeruns but only 16 stolen bases. The runs are on pace for 68, significantly less than I expected for a leadoff hitter.
8th Round: Dan Haren - Overachieving
Like Chris Young, Dan Haren is having a breakout season. He's on pace of 18 wins, 186 strikeouts with a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
9th Round: Ray Durham - On Target
Ray Durham is having a Ray Durham season. Nearly 90 runs, RBI and double digit homeruns. The batting average is a little low, but I'll take it.
10th Round: Justin Verlander - On Target
He's doing what I thought he would do.
11th Round: Scott Podsednik - Injured
Pods was supposed to supply 90 runs and 40 stolen bases. I'm not getting that.
12th Round: Josh Beckett - Overachieving
He may be putting up the best numbers because he's on pace for 22 wins.
13th Round: Yuniesky Betancourt - On Target
When I drafted him, I sort of panicked because I was short on stolen bases, and they were in short supply. I was hoping for 20 stolen bases, but he's on pace for 8.
14th Round: Shea Hillenbrand - Off Target
Alas, I didn't not expect Hillenbrand's career to be so knocked off course. He's been a staple for a .290 batting average, 20 homeruns and 80 runs and RBI. He's can also play first and third, giving you some positional flexibility. I dropped him off my roster in April. He was replaced by a FAAB pickup of Casey Kotchman
15th Round: Chris Capuano - Off Target
I figured that Capuano was going to put up numbers similar to 2005 and 2006. With a more experienced offense, I figured Capuano would be closer to his 2005 season of 18 wins than his 2006 season of 11. Alas, all his numbers are off and he's looked terrible since he came off the DL, but I'm not giving up on him yet.
16th Round: Nelson Cruz - Bust
In order for this strategy to work, I needed a couple of young outfielders to break out. Cruz did not. He is hitting .340 with 10 homeruns in 106 at-bats in Triple-A, so he might get called up again as the Rangers are not going anywhere.
17th Round: Jeremy Hermida - Bust
Hermida was someone who I figured could be a breakout candidate as well. He pissed a whole bunch of people off in 2006. He looks to be pissing me off in 2007.
18th Round: Brandon Inge - On Target
I was looking for .250 with 20 homeruns and that is about what I'm getting.
19th Round: Kevin Youkilis - Overachieving
While there has been some doom and gloom, Yorky is playing that ugly baseball I like so much. He doesn't have power. He doesn't have speed. All he does is get on base and score runs. The .328 BA is pure bonus.
20th Round: Jeremy Sowers - Bust
21st Round: David Weathers - On Target
22nd Round: Jim Edmonds - Bust
23rd Round: Pedro Martinez - On Target
24th Round: Emil Brown - Bust
25th Round: Jeff Weaver - Bust
26th Round: David Eckstein - Underacheiving
27th Round: Mark Ellis - On Target
28th Round: Matt Morris - Overachieving
29th Round: Kendry Morales - High Risk High Reward Pick
30th Round: Billy Butler - High Risk High Reward Pick
FAAB Pickups
With the injuries to pitchers and outfielders, I've had to go searching for players in the Free Agent pool which is not easy to do here.
Marlon Byrd - He has certainly helped the team since I signed him. I hope that Scott Podsednik will be back up for good and I can bench him.
Shannon Stewart - Again, I needed help and he is delivering in BA, Runs, and unexpectedly, Stolen Bases. I'm keeping him in for now.
Casey Kotchman - The replacement for Shea Hillenbrand. He's putting up the numbers that Hillenbrand was supposed to put up.
Mike Maroth - It ain't pretty, but he's a workhorse.
Wandy Rodriguez - A pleasant surprise. While I'd like to see more wins, the SO, ERA and WHIP are all acceptable.
Where To Go From Here
I need to improve in a number of areas and it all comes down to my underachieving players getting on target or improving. I'm 13th in batting average, 14th in Runs, 13th in Home Runs, 12th in Homeruns and 14th in stolen bases. A healthy Podsednik can easily help me in stolen bases. Pujols, McCann and Cano all hitting some more power than they are delivering now could easily move me up in runs, homeruns and RBI.
As I'm doing so well in the other categories pitching wise, I'll I need to do is be middle of the pack in hitting.
I'm on target pitching wise, third in ERA, first in Wins, second in WHIP and third in strikeouts. I'm dead last in saves. I have to admit that I'm surprise that more people didn't punt saves. My strategy of one closer was based on the assumption that someone else would punt. Alas, that didn't happen. I can move up quickly with a mid-season save pickup as there are a bunch of people hovering over me.
The problem is that there isn't much in the free agent pool to find and I can't trade in the NFFC, so all I can do is wait and hope.
JP Kastner is the Commissioner of the Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Experts’ League and plays in three other Strat-O-Matic leagues. He is also a second year members of Tout Wars in the Mixed League.