Ian Kinsler is ice cold. While Kinsler owners are disappointed at this
deep funk he has found himself in, if they were surprised, they fell
into a typical early-season fantasy trap. That is the tendency to
believe all the hot starters on your team are great picks, and all the
early busts are simply bad luck. Kinsler's owners should have been
surprised at his early power burst. Not at his recent performance
correction.
To extend the example, not only would the Kinsler owner
believe he has successfully landed a breakout candidate, but he'd also
believe that Bobby Abreu's slow start is just bad luck. We all
believe in our teams because we drafted them. We want to believe we did
a great job. We want to blame the poor performances all on bad luck.
We're all susceptible to it, but there's a way to avoid it. And we're
approaching the right time to do so.
Yes, the time is coming to
reevaluate, and to act. It's getting to be the time to do again what
you should have done right after your draft. Project your team's, and
your league's, stats and the resulting fantasy standings. We are
now at the end of the part of the fantasy season that can be safely
labeled "early."
Mid-May is the first benchmark in the fantasy
season for me. Sure, just like everyone else, I pay way too much
attention to my place in the standings from Opening Day on. But I try
not to act before the middle of this month. And now the time has come to re-run
your projections to learn the cold hard truth.
However, a mistake many make is to use the
same stats they drafted their team with. While it is still relatively
early, a lot has changed since Draft Day. Obviously, injuries are
something that have to be taken into account. Not only should you adjust
for the season-ending injuries like B.J. Ryan and Adam Loewen, but you
should take into account that players like Dan Johnson have not had a
full slate of at-bats to date. While there is still a lot of guesswork involved, this is the easiest area of adjustment.
The
second area of statistical adjustment is the transaction department,
i.e. the promotions and demotions that have taken place. Tim Lincecum,
Billy Butler, Adam Lind, and others have been called up to play. Edwin
Encarnacion, Kei Igawa and Jorge Cantu have been sent down. The tricky
part is that these moves are often not permanent. What will happen to
Lind's at-bats when Reed Johnson comes back? How long will the Reds
keep Encarnacion down on the farm? Of course, you don't know the answer
to those questions. You have to guess. You have to project.
The
third area to examine is that of role changes. This includes bullpens
who were cloudy on Draft Day, but which have become much more clear,
i.e. Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. And other bullpens which have become
much more cloudy, i.e. Philadelphia, Florida, New York, Toronto, and
Kansas City. But it also includes players who have gained or lost
playing time based on performance. Unlike their position on Draft Day,
Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jay Gibbons are not currently full-time players.
Ryan Theriot is. This area is probably even more difficult to project
and more fluid than transactions.
The final area of adjustment
is that of performance. To an extent, all of the above areas relate to
performance. But I am particularly referencing slow and hot starters
here. This is probably the most difficult area to project, and perhaps
the most important. Paul Konerko was as reliable as they come at first
base entering this season. So why is he scuffling so much? Do you keep
him, or try to trade for value to a power-starved team that believes he
can turn it around? Most people would keep him and wait for his
rebound. But what about a player like Adam LaRoche, with less of a
track record of success? On the flipside, is it time to sell high on
players like John Maine and Kelly Johnson, or are these bonafide
breakout years?
Once you have your projected answers, re-run
your team's and your league's statistics and standings. Do you still
look as good as you did on Draft Day? Is your strong start sustainable?
Is your awful start a fluke? Or do you have some work to do? Break it
down by statistic.
Maybe you've started a lot of middle relievers
and still find yourself at the top of the wins category. Are these guys
with three wins going to maintain that pace and finish with 15?
Maybe
you have Konerko, LaRoche, and Manny Ramirez and you're last in home
runs. Do you need to trade for power, or is it just a matter of time
before your team starts hitting out a few every night?
If you're
leading the league in ERA based on the strength of Jason Marquis and
Tim Wakefield, are those points you're going to keep all year, or is
there a likelihood that you'll eventually take a fall in the standings?
These
are the questions you need to answer. And the time to answer them is
right about now. This is the first step towards restructuring your
team, if that is indeed what is necessary.
I would argue that
this is the second-most important time of year after Draft Day. Why?
Well, first of all, any good moves you do make will have a big impact
on your team's place in the standings, as there is still a lot of time
between now and October. The next time to do this, around the All-Star
break, or prior to your team's trade deadline, is very important as
well. But you only get half a season of stats at that point. And the
second reason is that, if you guess right, you can take advantage of
players that are over- or undervalued at this point.
Remember,
it is still early - barely - and some stats are still fluky. So if
another owner overvalues your player, or undervalues his own, now is
the time to strike. This is much less so by July.
So take the
time to sit down and reevaluate. You may not like what you see. But at
least you won't be living in denial. And there's always the alternative.
You could be in a much better position than you think you are.