The Marlins Closer Role

The Marlins traded for Jorge Julio to put him squarely in the closer role. The problem is that he is off to the worst start imaginable. He simply can't get an out without putting men on base, and almost always gives up runs in the process. Julio has reportedly been told he is no longer the closer.

This has caused everyone to jump on the Henry Owens bandwagon of late. And if you can snag Owens off the free agent wire without cutting someone of value, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But the Owens love is getting out of hand. Why do I say that?

Well, for starters, the Marlins gave up a quality arm for Jorge Julio. Yusmeiro Petit was more than a bag of balls. He's a 22 year-old who has the potential to develop into a fine major-league starting pitcher. Florida's front office will want to see Julio win out over the long term. The closer, more than any other position, gains value in fantasy baseball based on opportunity more than skill. And Julio will be given, and has been given, a whole lot of leeway. He may be out of the role for now, but this is a long season.

Secondly, there's the fact that Julio has demonstrated streakiness in the past. He can look really bad and really good in stretches. It's easy to forget about the very good aspect because he's been really bad for 10 days (an eternity when it constitutes the entire 2007 season). But many of the same fantasy "experts" that are touting Owens now were pumping up Julio right after he was traded to Florida.

Thirdly, there is the looming return of Taylor Tankersley. The one knock against Tankersley in the closer role is that he is left-handed. But the Marlins have been much higher on him than they are Owens or Kevin Gregg, or even Matt Lindstrom. Opinions can change, but as of now, Tankersley has done nothing to change anyone's mind.

And then there's Owens himself. Right now, he is getting major love from the roto "expert" community. And it's not all without merit. He showed quality stuff in Double-A, and he has a prime opportunity with Julio's implosion and Tankersley's injury. But he doesn't have a foundation of major-league work to stand on, and a bad week could cost him his job.

All this being said, if Owens is lights-out in the closer role and dominates opponents, the Marlins could decide to keep him there and use Julio and Tankersley as their right-handed and left-handed set-up men, respectively. That could happen. But I wouldn't bet much on it. Owens is definitely worth a flier, but any more than that, and you are taking a major risk on a largely unproven commodity surrounded by guys with higher profiles.

As I said earlier, with the closer role, it's all about opportunity. And Owens has that ... for now. He may perform well enough to rack up 30 saves, but the odds are long.

Selling High? 

Don't sell high on Ian Kinsler, yet. Yes, there's no way he keeps up his pace. But his skills showed that there was certainly room for big growth this season, and his 2006 injury kept his counting stats in check. And then there's the additional concern of position scarcity.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, unless you play with a bunch of suckers, no one is going to pay full value for him right now. This last point is critical on Kinsler and all other "sell high" candidates. As we are reminded at every turn in the roto community, it is still very, very early. Even if Kinsler's pace slows down a bit, his value will probably actually be higher once other owners start taking stats seriously. Wait two-to-four weeks, and Kinsler will still probably be owning very nice stats.

And at that point, not only will other owners take those nice stats more seriously, but they will be more desperate to acquire value as their own team's deficiencies will be more apparent. The "wait-and-see" strategy is not only recommended for fantasy owners that are looking to fix a hole in their lineup, but for those looking to sell high on most hot players.