A lot of folks preaching from the fantasy pulpit sneer at mixed league formats, but I'll bet dollars to donuts it is the preferred format of the strong majority of their readers. Besides, it's not the format of the league by which it should be judged. It's the quality of the owners.
I could enter an extremely deep league - like the Rotowin league like Buster is in (30 teams with 25-man rosters) that mirrors the player pool in Major League Baseball - and if it's filled with guys who don't know what WHIP stands for, it could be the easiest league I've ever played in.
And conversely, I could be in a mixed league with nine roster spots and nine teams, but if my competition consists of Ron Shandler, Alex Patton, Peter Kreutzer, Todd Zola, Tim Dierkes, Trace Wood, Joe Sheehan and David Luciani, it'd be a lot more challenging.
In competitive leagues, one rule that I have found to be true most of the time is that you have to embrace some risk if you want to win. The problem is that this truth is not reflected in many "expert" mock drafts or projections. Why not? Because, at the end of the day, finishing 4th or 5th is a hell of a lot more respectable than finishing last. And every fantasy site on earth likes to advertise that it wins or is competitive in expert leagues. It's good for business.
Put yourself in the shoes of a fantasy analyst. If you knew in advance that the whole world would be evaluating your ability to compete in an "experts" league, how would it change the way you draft? Now, let's consider the possibility that your livelihood either partially or fully depended on it. Let's take an NL-only league, would you put your reputation on the line and pay $30 for a high-risk, high-reward arm like Ben Sheets, or would you decide it's wiser to spend $15 apiece on the more reliable skill sets of Tom Glavine and Dave Bush?
Yeah, right now, everyone loves Sheets. Look at his ratios from 2006, and factor in his good health (today) and quality spring training performance. Throw in the fact that the Brewers are a trendy pick to win more games and you have a "darkhorse" for the NL Cy Young Award. But what happens when he hits the disabled list after his second start of the season and makes a visit to Alabama where Dr. Andrews decides he needs to go under the knife and miss the season?
I'll tell you what will happen. A lot of people will question the decision to spend $30 on a pitcher with his injury history. Your "expert" team will start sinking, by July everyone will have forgotten that you drafted Sheets, wonder where you spent your pitching budget and why the Hernandez brothers are your best starting pitchers. Meanwhile the guy with Bush and Glavine is holding steady and "in the hunt" for the money.
So what's a reader like you to do if you play in a highly competitive league? If you "follow the rules" and do a good job of roster management, you should have a good job of finishing in the top half every year. But in truly competitive leagues - you know them if you play in them - you have to take some risks if you're going to win.
This is why I recommend finding a few risky players that you like, and targeting them for your roster. My preference is to focus on high-risk pitchers. I view all pitchers with suspicion, so if I'm going to take risks on players, it might as well be from the least predictable group. Remember, we're looking for risk here, so what better place to look than the mound? Sheets certainly fits that description, but who else is on this year's list? I break my high-risk arms down into four categories.
Injury Risks - These are the arms that have suffered significant injuries in the past, maybe in the very recent past. These are generally big names who will command a decent price despite the risk associated with this group because the upside is elite. This year, it includes guys like Sheets, Cole Hamels, and Rich Harden.
Bouncebacks - These guys had busted stat lines last season, but you believe they have the potential to bounce back in a major way. This is probably where you will find the best value. This is the group of Randy Johnson, Noah Lowry, and Ted Lilly.
Breakouts - These are the young guns who have had ugly stat lines to date in the big leagues, but clearly have the stuff to be valuable fantasy arms. You just hope that this is the year they put it all together. This is my favorite group, and this season it is headlined by Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, and Ian Snell.
Rookies - Unproven at the Major League level, this group probably has the highest ceiling for what you'll pay, and also the lowest floor. Usually it's the floor. But there are a large number of promising options to choose from this season, including Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, and Brandon Morrow.
Here's the thing. You don't want a starting rotation full of these risks. You want to draft some arms that you feel carry less risk as well, because you want to have balance. But if you can find a couple of pitchers that fit into these groups that you like, go get them. If you play in a competitive league, you need a lot of luck to win. By rostering a few picks that have significant upside, you're giving yourself a shot at first place. Just know that if your guys backfire, you could also find yourself in the bottom half of the league. But hey, you've gotta take your shot, right?