... If you think you're getting Ben Sheets for some type of bargain in your upcoming draft, think again. I've looked at mock drafts and participated in live ones, and Sheets is going in the top tier of pitchers, if not right outside of it. The pundits of the world have, for the most part, endorsed Sheets for 2007. And that is being reflected in most drafts I've seen. An additional problem for rotoheads is that the Brewers are a trendy pick to win the NL Central. This is not only because of the Sheets love, but Dave Bush, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy and Francisco Cordero are all trendy picks to improve upon their 2006 seasons ...
... If J.J. Putz does end up missing time, it is starting to look more and more like Chris Reitsma will be the first arm Seattle turns to in order to fill the closer role. Reitsma has been filling that role in spring training games these days ...
... Twins pitching prospect Matt Garza doesn't look like he'll crack the rotation on Opening Day, but with Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Silva and Sidney Ponson in front of him, it is only a matter of time before his call-up. How much time? I'd put the over/under at six weeks. The Twins are notoriously stubborn in sticking with veteran arms ...
... With Chien-Ming Wang on the DL for what could be most of April, the Yanks will turn to Jeff Karstens to fill the hole in the rotation. Karstens is having a very good spring training, but don't go crazy trying to get him. Not only will he be skipped as frequently as possible, but he hasn't demonstrated great skills in the majors to date. His value is even more depressed in strikeout leagues. That being said, in AL-only leagues, he's an endgame pick that can't be ignored. Wang is on the disabled list, Andy Pettitte is dinged, Carl Pavano is injury-prone, Kei Igawa is unknown and Mike Mussina is old. Until Phil Hughes is ready, Karstens could conceivably see a lot of innings in the Bronx this season ...
... Billy Butler is an all-bat, no-glove prospect, which is just how we like 'em in fantasy. Of course, if he had a glove, he might have a job in Kansas City instead of AAA. So when Mike Sweeney goes down, Butler will likely come up. He has probably caused more chatter in spring training than any other prospect ...
... Ozzie Guillen is committing to Darin Erstad as a full-time player in centerfield and the leadoff spot in Chicago. Erstad had 18 HR and 35 SB ... over the last four years combined. And lest you think he was just injured a lot, which would be at least some type of excuse, he amassed over 1400 AB in that time. The guy is, plain and simple, a below-average player. In his last full season in 2005, when he was gifted with over 600 at-bats, he could not hit more than 10 HR or steal more than 10 bases. And he got on base at a whopping .325 clip. But man, he sure looks tough out there. Oh yeah, and he's quite the spitter. White Sox fans should be relieved that Erstad is not likely to hold up all season. But if he does, have fun in the battle for third place in your division. What is significant about Erstad occupying the leadoff spot in the lineup for fantasy owners though is that they should project for a down-tick in RBI projections for White Sox hitters ...
... Coco Crisp has been a yo-yo this offseason. He started off as a darling of the underrated crowd because his injury last season limited his production. The problem is, he was such a common sleeper, he became overrated. Now, as he re-injured himself in action, he is back to being legitimately underrated. There is clearly injury risk here. But he has wheels and if his finger is solid, you could get some solid pop here with a good average as well. Crisp is a great reminder to take what the draft gives you. Don't get caught up in grabbing him. But when his peers on your draft list are crossed off, and outfielders in tiers below him begin coming off the board, he is a good value ...
... Tim Hudson has started to get noticed this spring for having a physique and ERA that are both razor thin. Unless you play in a league without strikeouts, take a pass. His ERA should be improved over last season, but he's still not worth where he goes in most drafts. Those glory days in Oakland are a long time ago ...
... Brad Penny had a nice season in 2006, but he wasn't the same pitcher in the second half. Penny has always fought injury problems, and the news - while not yet awful - keeps on getting worse from the Dodgers. He is someone I am personally avoiding on draft day. Unlike other injury risks that you can get at the end of the draft, the upside is not worth the risk with where you have to draft Penny to land him.