The Basic Principle
Anytime a pitcher has an increase in his innings of 57 innings or more from one season to the next is at risk for a Warning Flag. The end result may be short-term burnout during the year of the increased workload. It may come the following season when he breaks down physically or his performance declines noticeably. A complete background explanation can be found in part one.
2007 Candidates
Erik Bedard (LHP, BAL)
His second half numbers in 2006 point to a surge in skills that started to add up. Still, his workload rose 54 innings from 2005. Working in his favor is pitching coach Leo Mazzone and his throwing program. While under his tenure, the Braves had fewer pitching injury problems than most teams.
Taylor Buchholz (RHP, HOU)
Came out of the gate fast last season, but faded once the scouting reports caught up to him. His workload doubled from 2005 to 2006.
Aaron Cook (LHP, COL)
He's 28 years old, and the older the pitcher, the less likely the Warning Flag has an impact. That said, he went from 87 1/3 IP to 212, a huge jump for any pitcher.
Kelvim Escobar (RHP, OAK)
He's had some shoulder tightness in spring training. Is it due to the jump in workload from 2005 (77 IP) to 2006 (189 IP)? He's over 30, so the risk is slightly lower.
Roy Halladay (RHP, TOR)
His workload jump was 78 1/3 innings over the past two years. He had issues with forearm tightness several times in 2006. If the increase in workload is going to cause problems, this would likely be the year.
Cole Hamels (LHP, PHI)
He already has a history of injuries in the minors. Factor in the 83 1/3-inning jump in 2006, and his 2007 season has DL written all over it.
Clay Hensley (RHP, SD)
He just barely qualifies for the list, and it's not like 187 innings over the course of a season is abuse. That said, he's still at risk.
Sean Marshall (LHP, CHC)
Marshall hasn't looked sharp this spring, and may not earn a rotation slot to start the 2006 season. He just barely makes the Warning Flag list, but is still at risk in 2006.
Scott Olsen (RHP, FLA)
He's only 23 years old and the Marlins worked him 86 1/3 innings more in 2006 than 2005. That's a big jump for such a young pitcher. I'd be wary.
Beltran Perez (RHP, WAS)
Finished 2006 on the Nationals major-league roster, and they will likely need him there again this season. Desperation almost always means heavy workloads, especially if you can stay healthy. The Warning Flag theory says he'll break down or, at the very least, struggle in 2007.
Oliver Perez (LHP, NYM)
He made four stops last season and barely managed to see his workload increase above the 50 IP level. Don't consider 2004; think the 2006 version or a stint on the DL.
John Rheinecker (LHP, TEX)
He struggled after earning a recall last season. That recall pushed him over the 50 IP level. It's hard to see improvement in 2007 with that kind of a workload jump.
Anibel Sanchez (RHP, FLA)
The Marlins said they would be careful with him due to a slim frame and history of some arm issues. So what do they do? They work him 200 innings in his age 22 season. Don't be blinded by the no-hitter. Remember his age and big increase in workload the past two seasons.
Justin Verlander (LHP, DET)
Earlier in Jeremy Bonderman's career, the Tigers seemed to be worried about workload and arm issues. Last year, in the hunt for the postseason and a championship, Verlander worked 186 innings, 56 innings more innings than the year before. He has slump or injury written all over him.
Chien-Ming Wang (RHP, NYY)
He managed to work 218 innings last season, a 67-inning increase. He didn't fade down the stretch, but the odds have increased that it will happen this year.
Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA)
Weaver is having arm issues this spring. He says it's an annual thing, but it's past that point now. He managed to work 76 more innings in 2006 than in 2005. He already has some tendinitis in his biceps tendon. He looks like he'll be the first casualty of Warning Flag 2007.