Warning Flag 2007 Part 1
Back in 1995, Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ and yours truly, collaborated on a book (long out of print) called Forecasting Pitching Careers. While the book pales in comparison sabermetric-wise to what is being published now, a lot of the principles are still sound. One such theory is Warning Flag.
I first presented the Warning Flag theory at the Fantasy Baseball Forum in 1996 in Phoenix Arizona. In following years, I’ve presented the yearly list of candidates via websites and forums I’ve spoken at.
The Basic Principle
Anytime a pitcher has an increase in his innings of 50 innings or more from one season to the next is at risk for a Warning Flag. The end result may be short-term burnout during the year of the increased workload. It may come the following season when he breaks down physically or his performance declines noticeably.
General Rules
- When evaluating a particular season, combine both the minor and major league innings.
- The younger the starter the more vulnerable he is.
- It does not matter if the pitcher is a southpaw or righthander.
- Include excessive winter workloads into the analysis when needed.
How Do You Use Warning Flag?
Warning Flag isn’t the definitive answer regarding potential pitcher injuries or pitcher burnout, Rather, it’s a tool to be used in the evaluation process of starting pitchers. If you are comparing two similar pitchers and one has a Warning Flag, the other doesn’t. This particular situation should be enough to slant your decision away from the Warning Flag candidate.
Over the past ten plus years since its introduction, the Warning Flag theory has cycled through a couple of dry spells. However, from Luis Aquino, the first pitcher evaluated using Warning Flag in 1995 to the current crop of ‘candidates’, it’s a very helpful tool to help the fantasy player avoid additional injury risks on draft day and at the trade table.
Recent Examples…
Gustavo Chacin (LHP, TOR)
Back in 2004, Chacin worked 153 innings at Single-A, recording a 3.88 ERA and 1.38 Ratio. The following season, his rookie year in Toronto, Chacin worked 203 IP (24 y/o) and was named a Warning Flag candidate last season. A strained pitching elbow in May and a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in June ended up costing him about half the 2006 season.
Horacio Ramirez (LHP, ATL)
In 2004, Ramirez worked just 60 IP, in 2005, the Braves received 202 innings while Ramirez posted a 4.63 ERA and 1.39 ERA. That’s over a 140 inning increase! Last season, he managed just 76 innings landing on the DL three times missing 105 days. Granted, it wasn’t a shoulder or elbow injury that landed him on the DL. But even when he wasn’t battling hamstring problems, he didn’t pitch well.
Josh Towers (RHP, TOR)
Not every pitcher that qualifies as a Warning Flag candidate gets hurt. Sometimes they fade down the stretch in the year that we see the 50-plus inning jump. Other times, the pitcher just doesn’t meet expectations with his performance. This may be due in part to the sharp increase in workload.
In 2004, Towers who was 27 at the time, recorded 152 innings both at Triple-A and in the majors. The following season, Towers worked a career high 208 innings enroute to a 3.72 ERA and 1.28 Ratio. In 2006, a season after enduring the big jump in innings pitched, Towers faltered badly. He ended up at Triple-A and managed a horrible 8.42 ERA, 1.77 Ratio and never approached the form from 2005.
Tomo Ohka (RHP, FA)
With the Expos in 2004, Ohka worked 84 2/3 innings. The following season with both the Brewers and the Expos new home as the Nationals, Ohka managed 180 innings. He broke down early in the 2006 season with a torn rotator cuff. Was it due to the 50-plus inning increase? History says it’s very likely. If Ohka had been on your Warning Flag list, you might have avoided him.
In Part 2 next Tuesday, we’ll release this year’s Warning Flag candidates. Want a sneak preview? In his first season as a pro pitcher, this starter worked just 76 innings. The following season at Triple-A and the majors, he worked 200. There is no doubt he’s a Warning Flag pitcher for 2007! His name? Jared Weaver who currently is having problems with his pitching arm.
Also, in the past ten plus years of this theory, the list has never been longer.