Shortstop is an absolutely loaded position this season. You have Jose
Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter,
Michael Young, and Miguel Tejada at the top. I'm not as high on Tejada
as some, but there will be someone in your league who will bid full
value, so for the purposes here, I'm including him.
In the
standard 12-team mixed league, that's over half the teams who will be
walking away from the draft happy with their stud shortstop. Forget the
glory days of A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra, these are the salad days of
fantasy shortstops. But the forgotten man at this position is Carlos
Guillen. Guillen is a five-category contributor. He can score 100 runs,
drive in 80, give you a 20/20 power/speed combination, and he rakes.
You play in a batting average league? How about .320? You play in an
on-base percentage league? Guillen's .400 mark is among the elite.
How
does someone with these numbers maintain such a low profile? Some would
likely argue that there's an East Coast bias in play, and that very
well may be a contributor. But Guillen's health was a problem in 2005.
And that kept his draft price low entering last season. Still, looking
at his trends over the last three seasons, his 2006 totals were no
fluke. While he may not repeat them, if he's healthy, it would not be
surprising to see him outearn three to four of the players on the list
of "studs." And his price should be considerably cheaper due to his low
profile and injury history.
Guillen was the unsung hero of the
Detroit Tigers last season. And if you look at the winning team in your
fantasy league, don't be surprised if you see him on that roster as
well. Due to the glut at this position, and the way he has stayed under
the radar, he'll likely end up on a number of winning squads in 2007 as
well ...
... Hey, did you hear about Dice-K? Did you hear? Threw
a one-hitter. No earned runs. Awesome K/9 ratio. I'm sure you've heard.
And you can be sure that all of your leaguemates heard as well. Forget
about the fact that it was only a couple innings. Forget about the fact
that pitchers are well ahead of hitters at this point in spring. The
Hype Machine is in full swing. This was breaking news on ESPNews for a
couple of hours today. Front-page headline on a bunch of roto sites as
well. As long as this guy pitches reasonably well this month, his value
is going to rise as the weeks go by. And if your draft is near the end
of the month, and you want him, be prepared to pay a premium ...
...
Beware the outfield situations in Milwaukee and Cleveland, as they are
chock full of mediocrity. Milwaukee features a motley crew of options
fighting for playing time, including: Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Mench, Brady
Clark, Laynce Nix, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Corey Hart, and Gabe Gross. After
the greatness that is Grady Sizemore, Cleveland's two remaining
outfield spots are up for grabs. Figthing for the scraps are: Trot
Nixon, Jason Michaels, David Dellucci, Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin
Gutierrez, Casey Blake, and Joe Inglett.
Complicating the
situation is that Cleveland features an entrenched DH in Travis Hafner.
And Milwaukee, well, they're an NL team, so there's no place for a
designated hitter there, either. None of these hitters will likely win
the league for you. But who has the most value? The short-term answer
is whoever wins the job. And while Choo and Hart look like the best
long-term buys, veterans with bigger contracts tend to get in the way
of progress.
But don't ignore these position battles just
because they are so muddy right now. Injuries, demotions, and other
intervening factors could result in clear playing time winners emerging
in time for you to take advantage on draft day. And keep the losers in
mind as well for waiver wire acquisitions, as none of these guys is
more than a slump away from losing his job to another one.
Watch these two situations closely in spring training. Both lineups
have the potential to be productive places for the winners of these
outfield jobs.