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Miscellaneous Musings > Sweet at Short

Shortstop is an absolutely loaded position this season. You have Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Michael Young, and Miguel Tejada at the top. I'm not as high on Tejada as some, but there will be someone in your league who will bid full value, so for the purposes here, I'm including him.

In the standard 12-team mixed league, that's over half the teams who will be walking away from the draft happy with their stud shortstop. Forget the glory days of A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra, these are the salad days of fantasy shortstops. But the forgotten man at this position is Carlos Guillen. Guillen is a five-category contributor. He can score 100 runs, drive in 80, give you a 20/20 power/speed combination, and he rakes. You play in a batting average league? How about .320? You play in an on-base percentage league? Guillen's .400 mark is among the elite.

How does someone with these numbers maintain such a low profile? Some would likely argue that there's an East Coast bias in play, and that very well may be a contributor. But Guillen's health was a problem in 2005. And that kept his draft price low entering last season. Still, looking at his trends over the last three seasons, his 2006 totals were no fluke. While he may not repeat them, if he's healthy, it would not be surprising to see him outearn three to four of the players on the list of "studs." And his price should be considerably cheaper due to his low profile and injury history.

Guillen was the unsung hero of the Detroit Tigers last season. And if you look at the winning team in your fantasy league, don't be surprised if you see him on that roster as well. Due to the glut at this position, and the way he has stayed under the radar, he'll likely end up on a number of winning squads in 2007 as well ...

... Hey, did you hear about Dice-K? Did you hear? Threw a one-hitter. No earned runs. Awesome K/9 ratio. I'm sure you've heard. And you can be sure that all of your leaguemates heard as well. Forget about the fact that it was only a couple innings. Forget about the fact that pitchers are well ahead of hitters at this point in spring. The Hype Machine is in full swing. This was breaking news on ESPNews for a couple of hours today. Front-page headline on a bunch of roto sites as well. As long as this guy pitches reasonably well this month, his value is going to rise as the weeks go by. And if your draft is near the end of the month, and you want him, be prepared to pay a premium ...

... Beware the outfield situations in Milwaukee and Cleveland, as they are chock full of mediocrity. Milwaukee features a motley crew of options fighting for playing time, including: Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Mench, Brady Clark, Laynce Nix, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Corey Hart, and Gabe Gross. After the greatness that is Grady Sizemore, Cleveland's two remaining outfield spots are up for grabs. Figthing for the scraps are: Trot Nixon, Jason Michaels, David Dellucci, Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Blake, and Joe Inglett.

Complicating the situation is that Cleveland features an entrenched DH in Travis Hafner. And Milwaukee, well, they're an NL team, so there's no place for a designated hitter there, either. None of these hitters will likely win the league for you. But who has the most value? The short-term answer is whoever wins the job. And while Choo and Hart look like the best long-term buys, veterans with bigger contracts tend to get in the way of progress.

But don't ignore these position battles just because they are so muddy right now. Injuries, demotions, and other intervening factors could result in clear playing time winners emerging in time for you to take advantage on draft day. And keep the losers in mind as well for waiver wire acquisitions, as none of these guys is more than a slump away from losing his job to another one.

Watch these two situations closely in spring training. Both lineups have the potential to be productive places for the winners of these outfield jobs.

posted @ Saturday, March 03, 2007 1:54 AM by Chris Maher

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