If you have the first pick in an AL-only draft, and you don't take
Johan Santana, I think you're making a big mistake. Not only are there plenty of sluggers to go around, but the drop-off after elite starting pitchers is steep. While Santana is the cream of the pitching crop this season, the majority of the other top arms are from the National League. The next starter after Santana in the AL is probably
Roy Halladay (not a power arm) or
Daisuke Matsuzaka (a big question mark). After that, you're into the realm of guys you're hoping make a leap (
Dan Haren,
Jeremy Bonderman,
Scott Kazmir,
Felix Hernandez) to anchor your staff. Would you rather grab Santana in Round One and then a hitter like
Vernon Wells at the of Round 2, or have a combination like
Alex Rodriguez and Haren? I believe there's far more value in the former ...
... It would not be remotely surprising for 35 year-old Ray Durham to hit less than half as many home runs this season compared to 2006. After all, you only have to go back one year to see that level of production from him. If you take away Durham's power spike last season, he starts to look a lot like the rest of the mediocre second base offerings. Only Durham is much older and more injury-prone than many cheaper options with upside ...
... I have no idea what to do with Hanley Ramirez. And I'm not going to pretend I do. He is one of the few players over which I have no grasp. So what's my strategy? I don't think he'll be a bust because his speed is a skill he shouldn't lose for some time. On the other hand, some correction is to be expected after such a breakout. So based on his speed skills, I'll find my bid/round floor (i.e. What is the price or round at which I cannot let him go?), and as soon as that is reached, drop out. What the dollar/round value is for you will depend on your league set-up and your comfort level for risk. Looking at where he is being ranked and drafted, I'm not worried about him going for too cheap. And there are plenty of other top shortstop options who are much more reliable (like Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal) ...
... Justin Morneau is currently headlining my So Overrated They're Underrated List. Okay, so maybe he didn't deserve the MVP. But that doesn't change the fact that the guy flat out mashed. And it's not like it came out of nowhere. We expected this eventually, just not so soon after such a down year ...
... In the past in this space, I have ridiculed those who have speculated that Alex Gordon's emergence may send Mark Teahen to the bench. Royals manager Buddy Bell has now publicly declared his intent to play Teahen every day in the outfield. This means that Emil Brown or Reggie Sanders (or a combo) will be riding the pine. That is, until Mike Sweeney gets hurt ...
... If you're looking for a bounceback candidate to be had on the cheap, look no further than Coco Crisp. He was a very trendy pick last season, the man to replace Johnny Damon and lead off for Boston. Expectations were high, and many an owner reached to land him in 2006 drafts. But he missed almost two months after injuring his finger. The injury lingered after his return and his owners felt burned.
But let's take a closer look. The only concern that Crisp owners had entering the 2006 season was that he might not run as much with a team like Boston. Not only did Crisp finish with 22 swipes, seven more than his 2005 total in Cleveland, but he did so in more than 150 fewer at-bats. If he can improve his on-base percentage, and it would be difficult to see it dip below last season's .317, and stay in the lineup, a 30+ steal season is easy to envision.
Expectations of a bounceback this season have been lowered as Crisp is still experiencing some pain in that finger. Therefore, there is some risk in acquiring him. But this is a 27 year-old with great speed and something to prove who will be hitting in one of the best lineups in baseball. If he's healthy, he could have the year we were all expecting in 2006. But even if he's not 100%, he is being significantly undervalued.