Miscellaneous Musings

 

Chris Maher

 

February 4, 2007

 

Seems weird to be posting a fantasy baseball column on Super Bowl Sunday. But as incredibly entertaining and succinct as the Super Bowl pre-game show is, I hope to be able to somehow grab your attention.

 

Closers have always been a shaky investment, but this year looks worse than ever. There are plenty of unsettled bullpens (Indians, Braves and Cubs to name a few). There are two closers turning into starters in Jonathan Papelbon and Adam Wainwright. And many of the proven closers are getting along in years and thus pose higher injury risks. Look at the closers last year who are at least 35 years old with at least 30 saves. This isn’t the 35/30 club in which you want to sink a large investment:

• Trevor Hoffman – 46 saves, 39 years old
• Billy Wagner – 40 saves, 35 years old
• Todd Jones – 37 saves, 39 years old
• Joe Borowski – 36 saves, 35 years old
• Mariano Rivera – 34 saves, 37 years old
• Tom Gordon – 34 saves, 39 years old
• Akinori Otsuka – 32 saves, 35 years old

 In fact, two of these guys  (Borowski and Otsuka) aren’t even breaking camp as closers, and Todd Jones is, well, he’s Todd Jones. Isn’t he?

 

So how do you deal with this on draft day? Well, there are two strategies that are often recommended: either you spend top dollar on elite closers, or punt saves. Often people look at these two strategies as a choice. However, I maintain that this approach is unwise as the two strategies are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

When it comes to closers this year, target the few closers who inspire confidence due to their skill set, age and health record (think Joe Nathan and B.J. Ryan). Pay full value for that top tier, and don’t expect or wait for any bargains. However, if others are willing to overpay, let those top guys go. Instead, spend your big money and draft picks elsewhere on more reliable investments, and grab a few “closers-in-waiting” towards the end of the draft.

 

In most straight drafts, this will mean grabbing an elite closer after the first few rounds. In auctions, this means that you shouldn’t shy away from nominating top closers early to set the market. If you end up with one, fantastic. If not, you’ve at least increased the demand and therefore the price of other closers in which you have no interest.

 

Some other random thoughts:

 

- Bernie Williams will probably end up going to Florida to Spring Training with the Yankees. While he’d be an underdog to make the team, it seems that he’d rather retire than play for anyone else. No, there aren’t a lot of position battles on Steinbrenner’s squad. But you never know. He is going undrafted in a lot of AL-only roto leagues, and he shouldn’t be in any leagues with reserves.

 

- You know Nick Markakis is good. But he’s probably a lot better than you think. Go back and look at his final numbers. A .291 batting average with decent pop is nothing to sneeze at from a rookie. But when you look at his ugly start (he hit .182 over his first 66 at-bats in April), he becomes even more impressive.

 

- Do not think for one second that Daisuke Matsuzaka is slipping to you. Between the very public negotiations, the $100 million-plus high price tag and that stylish fur-lined winter coat he sports, this guy is high profile. Throw in the fact that there is not one projection on this here internet that predicts anything less than quality, and he is absolutely not a sleeper.

 

Dice-K’s fellow countryman Kei Igawa, on the other hand, might be. He has a good skill set, and should secure a spot as the #4 or #5 starter on a team that will win 90-100 games.

 

- When it comes to fantasy position depth, owners have come to expect certain things. In 2007, some trends are unsurprising. Second base and catcher are thin. First base and third base are deep (the latter, much deeper than normal). These positions, as Denny Green might say, “are what they thought they were!” But the outfielders, normally the studs of the fantasy landscape, are decidedly not.

 

Sure, there are elite players there. Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are still among the best fantasy players on earth. What’s missing is the depth. If you’re one of those owners who likes to fill up the scarce positions and wait until the end of the draft to grab quality outfielders, you may be in for a rude awakening this season.