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Inside the Numbers > Finishing Strong

The 162-game major league baseball season is a long, arduous, drawn-out marathon. It basically consumes a ballplayer every single day for six straight months, not counting another month of preseason and the honor of playing in October. Every single ballplayer goes through a ton of peaks and valleys, slumps and hot streaks and ups and downs, but the stats at the end of the year ultimately determine how good or bad of a season they had. In this edition of Inside the Numbers, we’ll examine the major stats exclusively in the second half of the year.

From April through June, a player is awarded for putting up the big numbers with a trip to the All-Star game. However, perhaps a more telling story is how well they perform in the second half. Guys like Luke Scott, Chris Duncan, Anibal Sanchez, Rich Hill and Chad Billingsley were putting their talents on display in the minor leagues throughout the first half, but finished their seasons with monster production at the game’s highest level in the dog days of summer.

Others like Morgan Ensberg, Chris Shelton, Alex Rios and Mark Buehrle put together stellar first halves, then fizzled dramatically towards the end. We’ll put the second-half numbers under the microscope today and showcase our second-half All-Stars for the 2006 marathon.

(Stats from July 1 – October 1)
Batting Average (minimum 150 at-bats)
1. Chipper Jones, ATL .372 (61-for-164)
2. Vladimir Guerrero, LAA .366 (111-for-303)
3. Robinson Cano, NYY .365 (77-for-211)
4. Paul Lo Duca, NYM .356 (93-for-261)
5. Derek Jeter, NYY .352 (118-for-352)
6. Albert Pujols, STL .349 (111-for-318)
7. Justin Morneau, MIN .348 (112-for-321)
8. Carlos Guillen, DET .344 (93-for-270)
9. Garrett Atkins, COL .343 (108-for-315)
10. Miguel Tejada, OAK .342 (110-for-322)

Surprises
Robb Quinlan, LAA .359 (47-for-131)
Ryan Theriot, CHC .339 (44-for-130)
Juan Rivera, LAA .338 (99-for-293)
Luke Scott, HOU .336 (72-for-214)
Chris Coste, PHI .333 (57-for-171)

Cano was simply brilliant once he came off the shelf. After sitting out the entire month of July, the Yankee second baseman led the majors in hits (77) and was second in RBI (51) the remainder of the year. He’s proved he’s one of the top players in the game and will be a top-three 2B in fantasy in drafts next year. … Rivera enjoyed a breakout season with the Angels, hitting .338 with 17 home runs in the second half. After years of mediocrity, he’s finally proving he’s got what it takes to produce at this level. Keep on eye on the former Yankee/Expo/National in drafts next season. He’ll likely slip in many leagues, but has proved he’s a bona fide fantasy option, finally.

Home Runs
1T. Ryan Howard, PHI 31 HR (294 AB)
1T. David Ortiz, BOS 31 HR (269 AB)
3. Mark Teixeira, TEX 25 HR (308 AB)
4T. Aramis Ramirez, CHC 24 HR (309 AB)
4T. Jermaine Dye, CHW 24 HR (296 AB)
6T. Albert Pujols, STL 23 HR (318 AB)
6T. Lance Berkman, HOU 23 HR (269 AB)
6T. Frank Thomas, OAK 23 HR (279 AB)
6T. Andruw Jones, ATL 23 HR (268 AB)
10. Alfonso Soriano, WAS 22 HR (317 AB)

Surprises
Brian McCann, ATL 19 HR
Chris Duncan, STL 19 HR
Bill Hall, MIL 19 HR
Juan Rivera, LAA 17 HR
Josh Willingham, FLA 17 HR
Craig Monroe, DET 17 HR

Although McCann had a mere five homers through the first half of 2006, he caught fire after the All-Star break and ended up leading all catchers with 24 long balls. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s skyrocketed to the top of the catcher rankings after his All-Star campaign in ’06. Only maybe Victor Martinez is worth taking higher in drafts because of McCann’s all-around production. … Most of the names on the list are very familiar, including Howard, Ortiz, Pujols, Jones and Berkman. However, Monroe, Willingham and Duncan are pleasant surprises to the list. Willingham bashed 26 long balls for the young Marlins squad, and is now one of about a half-dozen Rookie of the Year candidates from the franchise. He did lose his catcher eligibility this year by playing just two games. In the process, he became an everyday outfielder. Duncan has progressively received a larger role with the Cardinals throughout the entire season. Initially utilized as just a pinch hitter and late-inning defensive replacement, Duncan became an everyday player the old fashioned way – the kid earned it. With 19 home runs and 54 runs after the break, the coach’s son has burst into the fantasy scene in a big way.

Stolen Bases
1. Juan Pierre, CHC 33 SB
2. Carl Crawford, TB 32 SB
3T. Jose Reyes, NYM 30 SB
3T. Dave Roberts, SD 30 SB
5. Hanley Ramirez, ATL 29 SB
6. Chone Figgins, LAA 24 SB
7T. Soriano, WAS 23 SB
7T. Chris Duffy, PIT 23 SB
9. Felipe Lopez, WAS 22 SB
10. Willy Taveras, HOU 21 SB

Surprises
Eric Byrnes, ARI 17 SB
Alfredo Amezaga, FLA 14 SB
Ryan Theriot, CHC 13 SB
Josh Barfield, SD 12 SB
B.J. Upton, TB 11 SB

Chris Duffy, Hanley Ramirez and Willy Taveras each proved to be reliable cheap sources for stolen bases – each had at least 20 bases in the second half alone. They should be targeted in all Rotisserie leagues early on because of their dominance in the stat category. Taveras did some damage with the bat as well, highlighted by his 30-game hitting streak, while Duffy finished up the season getting thrown out just one time in 27 attempts. Meanwhile (total SB in ’06, ’05, ’04, etc) - Pierre (46,47,65,45,57,58), Crawford (55,59,46,58), Reyes (60,64) and Figgins (62,52) remain the most dominating threats on the base paths.

Victories
1. John Smoltz, ATL 12-4
2T. Jon Garland, CHW 11-4
2T. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY 11-3
4T. Derek Lowe, BOS 10-4
4T. Johan Santana, MIN 10-2
4T. Carlos Zambrano, CHC 10-4
7T. Joe Blanton, OAK 9-5
7T. A.J. Burnett, TOR 9-7
7T. Chris Carpenter, STL 9-4
7T. Chuck James, ATL 9-4
7T. Roy Oswalt, HOU 9-4
7T. Anibal Sanchez, FLA 9-3
7T. Steve Trachsel, NYM 9-4
7T. Jake Westbrook, CLE 9-6
7T. Woody Williams, STL 9-4

Surprises
Jeff Francis, COL 8-4
Esteban Loaiza, OAK 8-5
Ervin Santana, LAA 8-5
Chad Billingsley, LA 7-3
Luke Hudson, KC 7-3

Despite the Braves not making the postseason for the first time since around the Dale Murphy-era, John Smoltz proved he’s still got a lot left in the tank. At age 39, he quietly finished the season in big fashion, leading everybody in victories (12) and finishing second in strikeouts (118) in the final three months. Teammate Chuck James also flourished down the stretch, posting a respectable 9-4 record in that time frame. Tim Hudson, on the other hand, struggled most of the year. He finished with a career-worst 4.86 ERA to go along with a 13-12 record. In fact he had personal lows of 12 losses, 235 hits allowed and his 79 walks were his second-worst. The departure of Leo Mazzone definitely hurt Hudson’s production a lot. Royals starter Luke Hudson proved to be the better of the Hudsons. He was 0-3 with a 8.49 ERA at the midway point and then went 7-3 afterwards. Although he’s got a ton of potential, he’ll only be a mediocre pitcher on the lowly Royals.  … The Marlins finished the season with four rookies with at least 10 victories, a feat that’s never been done before. With Josh Johnson, Kevin Olsen and Ricky Nolasco solidifying their spots in the rotation early on, Sanchez came out of nowhere and quietly became the team’s most dependable hurler. He threw the sole no-hitter of the season, while finishing his rookie year with a 6-1 record in his final eight starts.

Earned Run Average (10 starts)
1. Roger Clemens, HOU 2.29 ERA (17 GS)
2. Roy Oswalt, HOU 2.68 ERA (16 GS)
3. Andy Pettitte, HOU 2.79 ERA (17 GS)
4. C.C. Sabathia, CLE 2.82 ERA (16 GS)
5. Erik Bedard, BAL 2.85 ERA (16 GS)
6. Jered Weaver, LAA 2.89 ERA (15 GS)
7. Rich Hill, CHC 2.93 ERA (12 GS)
8. Johan Santana, MIN 2.97 ERA (17 GS)
9. Anibal Sanchez, FLA 2.98 ERA (16 GS)
10. Brad Radke, MIN 3.05 (11 GS)

Surprises
Clay Hensley, SD 3.29 ERA (15 GS)
Jeremy Sowers, CLE 3.35 (13 GS)
Matt Cain, SF 3.38 ERA (17 GS)
John Maine, NYM 3.40 ERA (14 GS)
Chad Billingsley, LA 3.41 (13 GS)

Wow – the top three ERA leaders of the second half all came from the Astros starting rotation. Clemens looks like he can pitch until he’s at least 50 if he the motivation to keep working. He allowed more than three runs in just two of his 18 starts. Meanwhile, Pettitte was undefeated in his final eight starts. … Weaver, Hill, Sowers and Billingsley proved they belong with strong performances this year. After a slow start, the rookie went 6-1 in his final 10 starts before being shut down. Behind ace C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook, the Indians have a very competitive starting rotation. … Maine came out of nowhere to play a very prominent role with the Mets. After injuries to Victor Zambrano, Pedro Martinez and now Orlando Hernandez, Maine was needed to start Game 1 of the NLDS against L.A. and surrendered just one run on six hits in 4.1 IP.

Strikeouts
1. Johan Santana, MIN 121 K (115.1 IP)
2. John Smoltz, ATL 118 K (121 IP)
3. John Lackey, LAA 113 K (111.2 IP)
4. Matt Cain, SF 112 K (109.1 IP)
5. Cole Hamels, PHI 110 K (94.2 IP)
6. Javier Vazquez, CHW 109 K (107.1 IP)
7. Brett Myers, PHI 107 K (100 IP)
8. Aaron Harang, CIN 107 K (122 K)
9. Jake Peavy, SD 106 K (102.1 IP)
10. C.C. Sabathia, CLE 104 K (118 IP)

Surprises
Ian Snell, PIT 99 K (97.1 IP)
Scott Olsen, FLA 98 K (100.1 IP)
Felix Hernandez, SEA 84 K (94 IP)
Rich Hill, CHC 79 K (80 IP)
Chris Young, SD 76 K (82.1 IP)

Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Aaron Harang leap-frogged into the strikeout leaders in ’06 with impressive second halves. Harang led the National League in K’s with 216, edging Peavy and Smoltz. Santana led the AL in just about every category: W (19), SO (245), WHIP (1.00), BAA (.216), IP (233.2 IP), ERA (2.77) and No. 2 in WPct (.760). He better win the Cy.

Questions, comments, quandaries? Contact me at tycoon4477@hotmail.com.

posted @ Tuesday, October 10, 2006 6:47 PM by Matt Lawrence

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