I'll put together a column with more detail for Sat, but here is my draft, picking 14th.
1. Albert Pujols (Pick #14). If he plays, top 4 pick talent at 14. If he succumbs to the injury, I'm in trouble.
2. Johan Santana (#17). Hard to pass on the game's best pitcher at pick 17.
3. Derek Jeter (#44). Position scarcity raises it's ugly head. Jeter's solid if not spectacular.
4. Troy Tulowitzki (#47). Better than Jeter, but much riskier as well. A repeat of '07 would be fine with me.
5. Roy Oswalt (#74). Could have gone with the better Scott Kazmir or Josh Beckett, but picking an injured guy in the 5th is only asking for trouble (ask any John Lackey Owners). Oswalt isn't great, but he's almost always a top 10 starter. Couple him with Santana, and hopefully a top three closer (see below), and I have the makings of an excellent staff.
6. Joe Nathan (#77). Choosing at the back of the draft sometimes forces you to make a pick a bit earlier than you might like. I couldn't wait and hope that quality closers made it back to me at 104, so I made the proactive pick instead.
7. Todd Helton (#104). He's actually better than we all think. .320 or better eight of the last nine years, 15-20 HR, 80 RBI. Nothing to win a league with, but solid players along with a few risks can go pretty far.
8. Jason Bay (#107). Last year, he was a first round pick. In '06, he was a top 8 pick. Can he have lost it all in one injury plagued season? I'm betting on a return to form, giving me somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2nd or 3rd round value in the 8th round.
9. Michael Bourne (#134). This one pained me. I had no speed and there wasn't much left on the board.
10. Dan Uggla (#137). Normally, I try to stay away from the Uggla types (power but poor anticipated batting average). However, with Pujols, Jeter, and Helton on board, I can probably survive a .250 year (with 25+ HR) at second base.
11. BJ Ryan (#164). Again, a victim of my place in the draft. The remnants of the closers were drying up, but Ryan was still there (probably for good reason).
12. Evan Longoria (#167). You can't win the league without a few breakout hitters. If Longoria hits as expected (yes, a big "if"), I get great value. If not, I better have another 3b just in case.
13. Bronson Arroyo (#194). He's not as good as '06, or as bad as '07. Somewhere in between, with 180 strikeouts is just fine for me as my third starter, especially if I am able to get a 4th starter with 2nd starter talent later.
14. Rich Harden (#197). Foreshadowing from the Arroyo pick. Sure, Harden's a huge risk, but with a humongous reward. Got to take a chance, and at #197, there aren't any players with a higher upside than Harden. Imagine what a healthy Harden does alongside Johan and Oswalt.
15. Adam Jones (#224). My outfield is looking awful, so I might as well take a risk on another player with positive upside. The key to the Bedard deal, Jones will be given every chance to succeed in Baltimore. He has the talent, and to date has only lacked the opportunity. He will now get that opportunity.
16. Milton Bradley (#227). Noticing a trend yet? Positive upside with more than a modicum of risk. Bradley was fantastic in San Diego before breaking down. He is going to an incredibly favorable hitters park (especially compared to Petco and McAfee). Texas is +24% home runs for left handed hitters compared to the average, whereas Petco is -22% and McAfee is -10%. McAfee is also -18% for right handed hitters. The switch hitting Bradley, if he can only stay healthy, could be a monster in Arlington.
17. Tom Gorzelanny (#254). Sure, the Bucs aren't going to win many games, but even if they win just 70, some are coming from the starting rotation. Gorzelanny is a good pitcher, and will provide 12 wins, 150 Ks, and won't kill my ERA or WHIP.
18. Tony Pena (#251). About the same time that BJ Ryan breaks down, Tony Pena will take over as the Diamondback's closer.
19. Garrett Anderson (#284). Did you notice how thin the talent got by the 19th round? Anderson is good for .285, 17 HR and 80+ RBI, if he stays healthy. Note to self, make sure you pick up Juan Rivera, in case Anderson doesn't stay healthy.
20. Mark Reynolds (#287). Insurance for Longoria, and my starting UT. Reynolds is young and strikes out a bunch, but can send the ball a long way when he makes contact.
21. Ryan Freel (#314). Notice the dearth of speed? When he plays (and when I play him), Freel can help move me from the bottom of the league up a few notches in stolen bases. Plus, his name isn't Scott Podsednik.
22. Josh Bard (#317). We have to start two catchers? Wish someone had told me that earlier. Seriously, when all the good catchers were taken, I began to think of the Hippocratic Oath. Loosely translated, part of that oath is "Doctor, do no harm." I think that there ought to be a fantasy baseball corollary to that oath, ie., "Catchers, do no harm." Rather than bogging down my team with the likes of Brian Schneider and watching my batting average drop with every O-fer he has, I would take a couple of catchers who might get me 10-20 less RBI and/or Runs, but not kill my average. Enter, Josh Bard.
23. Brian Bannister (#344). Someone has to pitch, and the AL central isn't that good. Bannister might be able to match his '07 season, which would be fine with me. If not, I still have 1000 FAAB left.
24. Andrew Miller (#347). He's got a great strikeout pitch, and can easily average 1 K/inning. He's also erratic and could kill me. I'm not sure if he will ever pitch for me, but the potential is there, and this is the 24th round.
25. Mike Mussina (#374). He was well above average in '06, but putrid in '07. Did he lose it all that fast? If so, he'll be cut before Cinco de Mayo.
26. Michael Barrett (#377). Bear with me a moment here. Barrett's got a good career average, and catchers are brittle. Why draft Chris Ianetta and hope that 1) he plays, and 2) he doesn't hurt me. Instead, I've got virtually a guarantee of 550 at bats at the catcher position, and a reasonably good shot at .270 or above. I may lose a few HR, and a handful of runs and RBI, but not much more. Other than the top five or six catchers, the remaining guys are all going to get about 400 at bats, so I'm only about 250 shy, and I don't have an average anchor. I keep telling myself that this is a good strategy. I haven't convinced myself just yet, though.
27. Mark DeRosa (#404). He's versatile and will play almost everyday. He's repeated back to back solid seasons, and if I have an injury, I won't be afraid to play him wherever needed.
28. Pat Neshek (#407). Joe Nathan insurance. Remember, I had BJ Ryan last year, and learned what happens when your closer goes down for the year in the first month. Nathan could also get dealt, giving me a potential closer in the 28th round.
29. Juan Rivera (#434). See Garrett Anderson, pick number 284. One way or another, I will have a starter for the Angels. The 29th round is a good time to take out insurance. So is the 28th round.
30. Joey Devine (#437). Lawr's pick from afar. I'll start putting needles in my Rafael Soriano doll later this month.